[Ganchrow]

Florida - 57% - Both teams have roughly even, and generally capable, lineups and bullpens. The key to this game lies with the starting pitching. Pedro Astacio is a consistently mediocre veteran, while Anibal Sanchez is a rookie with a high degree of volatility to his starts. If Sanchez has one of his strong starts here, Florida has an extremely high likelihood of winning, due to the extremely low likelihood that Astacio will be able to keep Washington within a few runs. If Sanchez has one of his poor outings, of course Washington will have a high likelihood of winning. However, it is more likely that Sanchez will have a strong start than a poor one. And furthermore, the chances of Florida winning despite a poor start from Sanchez are slightly better than the chances of Washington winning despite a strong start from Sanchez. This all adds up to a good-sized overall edge for Florida, giving a good amount of value to them when priced around even money.

Texas 54% - This game involves 2 iffy starters and 2 capable offenses, and as such there is likely to be a higher than normal number of lead changes, which favors Seattle. With Broussard now in the lineup, Seattle will get a boost facing righties in hitter-friendly parks. The kind of lineup Seattle is likely to field will be helped more than most by playing at Ameriquest. Piniero is very shaky in general, but if he can approximate his last 2 road starts, both good ones which came against quality offenses, Seattle will have a major advantage.

[Ganchrow]

Houston 63% - Pittsburgh is a terrible road team, but this could be a good spot for them. Gorzelanny has always had good potential, and his last few starts have been very good. He could have another good start here, especially if Houston sits some of their better hitters. The classic situation that has plagued Houston over the last couple of years, namely, Clemens pitches a great game, only to be matched by the opposing pitcher, leaving Houston to rely on their shaky bullpen, could well play out here again.

[darkghost]

Anything on the Rockies/Dodgers, Ganch???

[Ganchrow]

Anything on the Rockies/Dodgers, Ganch???

Sorry we didn't respond to this, I was taking care of some other stuff and didn't see it until it was too late. But we always try to respond to any specific game request.

FWIW our number for that game was Dodgers 53%, which is very close to the lines offered.

[darkghost]

No problem. I decided to pass on the game as well. I appreciate all your posts and analysis. Really quality stuff.