Ali & Hayduke's Base Pickers

[posey]

Toronto looks pretty good but I have learned to never count the Yankees out until the end of the ninth.

Then F5 would be a nice option for the future.

[mitch51]

Then F5 would be a nice option for the future.

You are correct although we did try the FF last year and got burned a little. This is a brand new year, though. FF remains a viable option though.

[16kredit]

so 4 plays today, FML missed toronto.
Do you always post picks early and thats all, or you might add some later on?

[mitch51]

so 4 plays today, FML missed toronto.
Do you always post picks early and thats all, or you might add some later on?

Normally we post once a day unless there are games that need to be up early and then we'll post twice but state that we'll be back later for the afternoon games.

We try to give everybody time to bet our games.

Today's games post 196.

Hope this helps.
Ali

[mitch51]

ALI!!! ALI!!! ALI!!! Hitting Toronto, 2-0 with the dogs.

[jerseybo]

Awesome!!!!

[mitch51]

Awesome!!!!

Thanks will have update later.

Ali

[mitch51]

04.06.15 ALI DOGS

1pm ET
913 TOR +125 betting 1.00/1.25 won

3pm ET
928 PHI +105 betting 1.00/1.05 lost

4pm ET
905 ATL +120 betting 1.00/1.20 won
919 CWS +110 betting 1.00/1.10 lost



04.06.15 HAYDUKES

2pm ET
902 MIL -150 Betting .50/.33 lost

10pm ET
926 OAK -150 betting .50/.33 won


GLTA

Ali & Hayduke

Update:

ALI DOGS
2-2 +.45u
3-2 +1.45u .60%

HAYDUKE
1-1 -.17u .50%

Good night

Ali & Hayduke

[RollinDo]

I took Phils, ChiSox.
I hate betting dogs. I lose about 80% of those.
To each his own.

[grey area]

I went 2-3 yesterday but pounded the Braves, only dog you had I really liked.

Rockies, Rangers, Cardinals and Mariners make my starting list today.

[mitch51]

Ali went 2-2 with the dogs and showed another day of profit. Some of these dogs can look rank but yet they still win. It's not easy to bet dogs but with our experience it's still the only way to go. I learned long ago that it was a very bad idea to try and cherry pick her picks. For example...I know a paid tout who took the Yankees yesterday while Ali was on Toronto as a dog. I tried to warn him. If you bet faves I wish you luck though.

[RollinDo]

Only time I take faves is in favorable spots with my pitchers...

Kershaw, King Felix, Kluber (home), De La Rosa (Home)...etc

[mitch51]

Only time I take faves is in favorable spots with my pitchers...

Kershaw, King Felix, Kluber (home), De La Rosa (Home)...etc

I did this the last year I bet faves. Winning percentage was 78%. However, I showed no profit due to the juice on these aces. That was the last time I bet faves. I'll try to post a chart that tells you what you're winning percentage has to be betting faves. It's shocking.

[Lefty123]

Mitch your correct big favorites will kill you.they are so scared of dogs I can't hook more then two together.wont lay more than 130 on favs I do play streaks big favs play run lines.Mitch keep up the good work.

[mitch51]

[jcromero2]

Hi, 16credit, that's really a good question. Last year the most we ever lost was eight in a row going into the All-Star break. But immediately after that we turned around and won nine in a row. But we did drop some units in July for sure. Personally we recommend that you bet no more than 2% of your bankroll per bet. Also, we strongly recommend you bet them all. Although some of these dogs just look terrible, these are the ones that seem to cash half the time. We have learned not to drop any. This year we will take a little time off at the break, just a very volatile time for these dogs.

Welcome aboard. Develop a game plan and stick by your guns. We are gonna cash on half of these dogs, we just don't know which half.

Hi Mitch, last year follower here and checking in for this season. One question though, when you say you lost 8 in a row, do you mean 8 straight plays or 8 losing days?

Thanks for the picks!

[mitch51]

Mitch your correct big favorites will kill you.they are so scared of dogs I can't hook more then two together.wont lay more than 130 on favs I do play streaks big favs play run lines.Mitch keep up the good work.

Now, this seems reasonable. If you average +120 you just have to win 45.45% of your bets. If you handicap these dogs you can get that 45.45% up to 50%. This is where you get your profit hitting dogs. This is what Ali does. But, man. You need plenty of tequila to get you through this. Lol.

[VegasPlayer]

Much better feeling going 2-2 and walking away from the window with extra $$$. Love the dogs.

[mitch51]

Hi Mitch, last year follower here and checking in for this season. One question though, when you say you lost 8 in a row, do you mean 8 straight plays or 8 losing days?

Thanks for the picks!

Good question. This was 8 games. We have never even came close to 8 losing days in a row. But that hurt, though. Thing is right after those losses we won 9 games in a row. The dogs are volatile. But I think that the dogs are the only way to turn a profit. Betting these dogs is absolutely proven as far as we go.

[RollinDo]

Guess so, but when you only hit 20-25% like I do, it's a big hit.
Question is how do you know which dogs to take?
Good for you guys that you can cap that with success.

[mitch51]

Much better feeling going 2-2 and walking away from the window with extra $$$. Love the dogs.

I took two faves yesterday and won one. Lost -.17 units. Ali took four dogs and won two. She was +.45 showing a nice profit. That's it in a nutshell. VegasPlayer is right. There is a huge learning curve with this. We are gonna try to shorten this curve.

Friends don't let friends bet favorites. Sharing is caring.

[mitch51]

Guess so, but when you only hit 20-25% like I do, it's a big hit.
Question is how do you know which dogs to take?
Good for you guys that you can cap that with success.

Pitching, pitching, pitching. If you find a dog with a higher rated pitcher (we use Sagarin) you WILL win 50% of your dog bets. That simple. We also handicap a lot of other stuff...but pitching is where we start. When a dog team is throwing an ace and they are still a dog, the team seems to rally because they know that with this pitcher they have a shot. And believe it or not, every single player in the Bigs can hit dingers, including every player on the dog. You have to stick with it long term and get the big picture. You will see that Ali and I will lose a ton of games this year. Damn, we hate that part. But when the smoke clears at the end of the year we'll be up a lot of units. Ali is already up +12.90 units including the pre-season. That's $1,290 for a $100 bettor ALREADY. We want to see everyone here share in our winnings, no matter how you do it. We don't care how you bet, what you bet, or when you bet. We just want you to cash tickets and show a good profit at the end of the year without paying any touts. You can do this.

[mitch51]

Good morning everyone

Just to let everyone know we bet at our local sportsbook-Casablanca.

04.07.15 ALI DOGS

7pm ET
951 ATL +120 1.00/1.20

8pm ET
953 STL +100 1.00/1.00

10pm ET
963 TX +140 1.00/1.40
965 LAA +115 1.00/1.15



04.07.15 HAYDUKES

7pm ET
962 TB +105 .50/.52

10pm ET
959 SD +150 .50/.75


GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

[IrishLuck777]

whats the reasoning for you to separate the plays now?

[mitch51]

whats the reasoning for you to separate the plays now?

If I had a smaller bank roll I would bet nothing but Ali's Dog picks. She has a strict system and she never messes around with it. All I am doing is trying to hedge her bets a little bit and take some dogs that normally would look good but are outside of her system. I hope to go 50% with mine too.

Hayduke

[mhille]

Thanks for sharing. Quick question ... Does the 186-186 record on dog picks last year include both Ali and Hayduke's picks or were they from one or the other. Sorry if this has been answered before. Good luck today.

[mitch51]

Thanks for sharing. Quick question ... Does the 186-186 record on dog picks last year include both Ali and Hayduke's picks or were they from one or the other. Sorry if this has been answered before. Good luck today.

We were doing them together last year. This year we are hedging Ali's system picks not that they need hedging. The 186-186 were our system picks thrown together. Either way we hope to go 50% at the end of the season.

Hayduke

[Looking4Winners]

Good morning everyone

Just to let everyone know we bet at our local sportsbook-Casablanca.

04.07.15 ALI DOGS

7pm ET
951 ATL +120 1.00/1.20

8pm ET
953 STL +100 1.00/1.00

10pm ET
963 TX +140 1.00/1.40
965 LAA +115 1.00/1.15



04.07.15 HAYDUKES

7pm ET
962 TB +105 .50/.52

10pm ET
959 SD +150 .50/.75


GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

FYI... StL/Cubs game postponed..

[mitch51]

FYI... StL/Cubs game postponed..

Thanks, it's good to know we can cash at least one ticket.

Hayduke

[mitch51]

Good morning everyone

Just to let everyone know we bet at our local sportsbook-Casablanca.

04.07.15 ALI DOGS

7pm ET
951 ATL +120 1.00/1.20

8pm ET
953 STL +100 1.00/1.00 PPD

10pm ET
963 TX +140 1.00/1.40
965 LAA +115 1.00/1.15



04.07.15 HAYDUKES

7pm ET
962 TB +105 .50/.52

10pm ET
959 SD +150 .50/.75


GLTA


Ali & Hayduke

Just reminder for any who just popped in STL game PPD.

Ali

[Yons18]

Question about your TB over BAL pick. Based on Sagarin, wouldn't you feel safer picking Baltimore as a favorite at the price given due to Karns small (and less than satisfactory) sample size compared to Chen's past results vs Ray's lack luster hitting vs Lefties in the spring. Just curious on your thoughts, I enjoy your guys thread.

[EXhoosier10]

small sample size doesn't mean the guy is bad

[Yons18]

small sample size doesn't mean the guy is bad

Never said that.

[mitch51]

Question about your TB over BAL pick. Based on Sagarin, wouldn't you feel safer picking Baltimore as a favorite at the price given due to Karns small (and less than satisfactory) sample size compared to Chen's past results vs Ray's lack luster hitting vs Lefties in the spring. Just curious on your thoughts, I enjoy your guys thread.

Any American League team averaging between 1 and 3 (non-inclusive) runs per game on their season. In history this is SU: 57-40 (0.8 rpg, 58.7%, +18.5% Roi).
Hope that answered your question.
Hayduke

[mitch51]

Any American League team averaging between 1 and 3 (non-inclusive) runs per game on their season. In history this is SU: 57-40 (0.8 rpg, 58.7%, +18.5% Roi).
Hope that answered your question.
Hayduke

I know it probably didn't, but using algorithms is almost mandatory anymore. This information indicates a 58.7% probability (57-40) that this dog will win in this particular situation. We are having some success with this but it's still weird. We're not totally used to this yet, but when you combine long term trends along with your capping, it can't hurt. Vegas gets tougher and tougher to beat, you have to use every tool in your arsenal. I hate those Vegas bastards with a passion.

Hayduke