Don't trust old man AJ Burnett or Descalini for the Reds although the hitters could be tired? The pens are def tired....Pitt used every reliever they had last night. I like Over 8 here
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Good morning all
04.09.15 ALI DOGS
1pm ET
957 MIN +135 1.00/1.35
7pm ET
968 PHI +125 1.00/1.25
04.09.15 HAYDUKES
None
GLTA
Ali & Hayduke
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You are writing this stuff down because sharing is caring and ALL info on these games is helpful. When you start focusing on dogs and unders, that's when you start making money although you lose more bets. Glad to have you in our thread.Yeah, that's what I think as well. Been a long time over/under and favorite bettor but for this season I want to focus on dogs. I do my own research and my own picks and then I will take what Ali (or you) gives us as well. Nice profit so far.
Haha, I was looking at the lines few seconds ago and I have seen that Sabathia has shifted from favorite to dog (at least at Pinnacle, that's the book which I use). I had bet on Toronto as soon as the lines were available since I planned doing so (had done research on CC and Toronto's SP yesterday). CC was -125 in the beginning, now he is +105. Toronto opened with +115 and is now at -114. Don't know why I am typing this down to be honest.
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We hear ya. We take a lot of games we don't really like betting the dogs. Half of them cash, though. We never have a problem with people not taking our picks or fading us. It's what betting is all about. Of course, half of our dogs crap on the living room carpet. We never know which half though.
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Glad to have you here bookiebuster. Still plenty of time to hop this train.Originally posted by bookiebuster247
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New to the forum,,, seems like I'll be following this thread. Can't possibly see your angle for the twins, but good luck. I'm on the Tigers, A's, and Yanks. im not usually a chalk guy, my ideal scenario is double maxing dogs (spread and ml), in hopes that if they don't win outright then I'll void out with a push. Never do favored spreads as teams don't care about how much they win by; didn't like any of the dogs today.Comment -
Welcome to the thread. When I first found out you had to bet dogs to make money (had been a fave bettor) I didn't like many of the dogs we bet although half invariably cashed. We do have an angle on every pick we make, all these dogs are capped. We have the dogs consistently cashing at a 50% rate. Sometimes, it's the very ugliest dogs that cash. It's still a mystery although we have been betting these dogs for years now.
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At least I think that it's kinda indication that when you pick a dog (TOR in the beginning) and it shifts to being a favorite you are on the right track.
I like the Twins pick to be honest. On conventional thinking you should not bet on a team which has been limited to 9 hits and 0 runs in the past two games. BUT the Twins bats have to show up now and I think motivation should be there. Greene is not as elite as Price and Sanchez and Gibson is better than Nolasco. The Twins are 2-3 with Gibson against the Tigers, but he had to pitch against Price 2 times, Scherzer 2 times and Smyly once. All better than Greene IMO.
And addionally, teams, which have been dogs in games of the same division, which have lost the first two games of a series as a dog and are dogs in the third game of the series, too, have avoided the sweep in 33 of 57 occasions since 2004 (17 of 30 occasions since 2010) when the line was below +150. I am talking about AWAY dogs here.Last edited by posey; 04-09-15, 12:07 PM.Comment -
Great analysis on the Twins Posey. Those are some of the thoughts I had. Really like your input here regarding dogs. We'll be doing some totals eventually, looking forward to your input on these.
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Only dog for me today is SF.
I am 0-5 with dogs so far.Comment -
Don't give up on these dogs. We have had many 0-5 days. You can swing back to 50% on them. It's tough at first. Paper bet them until you find what works for you. It takes a while. But 50% should be your goal although even 46% will get you there. When you give the dogs a fair try we don't think you'll take many faves. It sucks to win over 60% of your picks yet lose money. Within a month you can be betting dogs like an old pro.
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Hey Mitch,
I followed you last season and you did pretty well so I've set up a separate bank for this season (I can't cap baseball for sh.t, so I need to follow someone).
Without wanting to sound like I'm p.ss..g in your pocket I want to say I like the way you run the thread. No chest thumping or guarantees, you answer questions without putting anyone down, and you cop the bad beats.
I was thinking a flat 5% of the roll per bet. You think that sounds ok or too high? I never kept track of your losing runs but figured on a longest of maybe 8-10. It's a $600 roll, and I'll let you know how it ends up when you've finished for the season.
I missed the first few games. Starting with Philly today.
Best of luck.Comment -
Ali if you don't mind me asking what do you look for in a good dog pick?Comment -
Hey, Martinr, glad you dropped in. We personally bet 1% of our bankroll on the dogs. We realize that you cannot do this with a $600 bankroll but we think you might be pushing it by betting 5%. We want you to be around for the whole season because we know if you do, you'll make money. So...how about $20 bets? Then when you build up your roll (this takes a little time) hit them for a little more. Our worst losing streak last year was 8 in a row. But this is just advice here. We have been where you are at, the toughest thing to do is to have patience and stay the course. Absolutely NO PARLAYS and NO RUN LINES until you build it up and maybe not even then. And we have three words for you that if you keep to them, you'll do fine. STRAIGHT FLAT BETTING. Don't listen to touts who give you a STONE COLD 10 UNIT SUPER LOCK. F that. We NEVER feel that one of our bets is worth more to bet than another. Sorry to be so wordy here but damn, we want you to get started with us on the right track. If you look at Ali's dogs and STRAIGHT FLAT BET them you will be fine at the end of the year.
Last edited by mitch51; 04-09-15, 02:25 PM.Comment -
Thanks Mitch. Point taken re bet size.Comment -
So does SF not qualify as a live dog based on the fact that Kennedy had better Sangarin ratings than Hudson from 2014?Comment -
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I will stay the far away possible from Twins and Chw from now on.....those two teams really Sucks.....already had made us lost good amount of moneyComment -
Hey just out of curiosity, I know they faced three good pitchers... But they were also decent sized dogs all 3 games and it can be argued reasonably that they had the better (or at least equal quality pitcher) in 2 of the games... The mets never made it as a play in ur system?
Seems like the will fit what ur looking for most of the year ... Will likely me dogs rather often Cuz of the weak offensive line up but they're rotation is second to only few in baseballComment -
If you saw Harvey at all this Spring then you knew he was back on top of his game. I follow the Mets pretty closely, and took Harvey as a small dog. I felt I couldn't pass that up.Comment -
Uh that Twins looked ugly yesterday, pitching was a mess and totally non existent concentration at the plate.
My first pick for today are the Mariners. Oakland not as good as last year IMO and Walker is better than Pomeranz. And some Mariners have to show up at the plate. And I also like the Royals with Vargas at the Angels with Santiago. Santiago has an ugly track record when being a favorite (Halos are 4-12 with him being home fav) and Vargas tends to do well in pitcher friendly parks.Last edited by posey; 04-10-15, 04:48 AM.Comment -
For a while I didn't think the Twins were going to score a run this year. We lost 2% of our bankroll with those two games. Hoping for better results today. There are a lot of dogs to look at. We have hit a cold streak, but folks who have been consistent with betting these dogs through the pre-season up to now are up quite a few units. However, it's what you are up in September that counts. That's the way we look at it. Sometimes the dogs crap on the floor. We'll see what happens today.Comment -
I like Royals and Tigers as small dogs today.
Anxious to see your picks guys!
I am now 1-5 with doggies!Comment -
Don't have much on the Radar yet as for dogs, leaning Jays but nothing to do with my system so only playing them if you are.
Starting list today Astros, Indians, Reds, NationalsComment
