MLB Totals Unders and runline System Test

RollinDo · 09-03-14, 02:14 PM

Why both those Unders...1st definitely looks way way Over...like a 8-7 kinda game...King Felix may get shelled too.

dejong77 · 09-03-14, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by BeanTownClown88

Under been getting crushed...I dont like totals as much but Washington/LAD O7.5 looks too good to pass up

the under picks i did don't do very bad but i been crushed because i tried out other systems along the way.

RollinDo · 09-03-14, 05:02 PM

Done with mlb for a while.
Lost big play on Oakland, Under in AtL, Going big on Under in Houston tonight, but mlb is way too tough right now.

dejong77 · 09-03-14, 05:52 PM

Giants-rockies was a long shot but a line at 11 was to good to not take the risk. if it would have been 7,5 or 8,5 i would have skipped it. Then it would be 100% over. They finished at 11. So thats a no bet.

Mariners-athletics i would have skipped normally but did good in picking under with Jon Lester. Also mariners finished a few games more under then over and the line was at -120. meaning the bookie expexted a 55% change the game was going under.

Record for the afternoon is 2-1-1 with 0,8 unit in the profit.

labones00 · 09-03-14, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by RollinDo

Done with mlb for a while.
Lost big play on Oakland, Under in AtL, Going big on Under in Houston tonight, but mlb is way too tough right now.

doesn't sounds like you're done with a big play on Houston under tonight lol

dejong77 · 09-03-14, 06:00 PM

Going to make the following evening plays:

Red Sox-Yankees U 8,5 +100 (might get this at some places at 9)
Reds-Orioles U 8 +100 (might get it at 8,5 at some places)

RollinDo · 09-03-14, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by labones00

doesn't sounds like you're done with a big play on Houston under tonight lol

After tonight...yeah I say I'm done but so freakin hard to break away..but I need a break...worst 5 day stretch since I started betting 2 springs ago.

dejong77 · 09-03-14, 06:07 PM

later games then 7pm start
Brewers-Cubs Under 8 +100 (some places should have it at 8,5)
Diamondbacks-Padres U 6,5 -120
White Soxs-Twins U9,5 -130

RollinDo · 09-03-14, 09:50 PM

I bet one too many tonight.
Did Toronto TT (U 3.5)
Didn't even consider that until late.
Had A's won today, could have been a breakthrough day for me.
Nonetheless, will still be a winning day if D'backs don't score more than 3.

Like your Under system man.
Since I'm not hitting 60% anymore, I come here and to another thread to verify my plays.

dejong77 · 09-04-14, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by dejong77

later games then 7pm start
Brewers-Cubs Under 8 +100 (some places should have it at 8,5) push
Diamondbacks-Padres U 6,5 -120 loss
White Soxs-Twins U9,5 -130 loss

0-2-1 -2 units

dejong77 · 09-04-14, 06:39 AM

Originally posted by dejong77

Going to make the following evening plays:

Red Sox-Yankees U 8,5 +100 win(might get this at some places at 9)
Reds-Orioles U 8 +100 win (might get it at 8,5 at some places)

2-0 + 2 units

dejong77 · 09-04-14, 06:45 AM

Basiclly all 5 evening games where a push. Won 2 units on the 7pm games. And lost 2 units on the later games plus à push. Leaves me with the 0,8 unit profit in the afternoon games.

not. to Many games today. Will review them during lunchbreak at 1pm eastern.

dejong77 · 09-04-14, 09:33 AM

only 8 games today. On the early afternoon lines i will plays the following games:

Diamondbacks-Padres U 6,5 +102
Tigers-Indians U 7,5 +108
Blue Jays-Rays U 7,5 -110
Angels-Twins U 8,5 -110

RollinDo · 09-04-14, 09:40 AM

What do you know about Delgado for AZ?
That Under seems contingent on how he does. If he gives up 3, think Over hits.

BeanTownClown88 · 09-04-14, 09:44 AM

That Delgado guys looks like crap..also saw some pretty strong data supporting over in Minnesota, its 31-15-5 over last 51 head to head match-ups.

To each their own, BOL!

RollinDo · 09-04-14, 09:47 AM

I personally like Unders in Baltimore and Texas best.
No score 1st in TB....
I may play 1 other Under based on line movement...maybe Minnesota game.

Dejong you do a nice job with Unders...keep it up man!
Tough stretch right now in mlb.

dejong77 · 09-04-14, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by RollinDo

What do you know about Delgado for AZ?
That Under seems contingent on how he does. If he gives up 3, think Over hits.

Don't have much data on Delgado. I know he hit the over in his 2 starts. Ian Kennedy is a under pitcher. Padres-Diamondbacks both hit the under more then the over. I expect the hits to be even about 6-7 hits per team. As i expect the convert less then 50% and line at even money. Worth the risk.

dejong77 · 09-04-14, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by BeanTownClown88

That Delgado guys looks like crap..also saw some pretty strong data supporting over in Minnesota, its 31-15-5 over last 51 head to head match-ups.

To each their own, BOL!

Based on the previous game data you are right that there is a strong indication that the game goes over. last 3 season its 10-6 in favour of the over.

But based on filters like hits, runs and OBP and a few others i think this could go to the under. I expect about 9 hits on both sides but don't think the will get more then 8 runs combined.

Best of luck to all.

dejong77 · 09-04-14, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by RollinDo

I personally like Unders in Baltimore and Texas best.
No score 1st in TB....
I may play 1 other Under based on line movement...maybe Minnesota game.

Dejong you do a nice job with Unders...keep it up man!
Tough stretch right now in mlb.

I would pick baltimore and texas if the line moved up with a run. But right now i feel its to close to call and i don't see a real edge.

Good luck to you. I hope i am wrong.

dejong77 · 09-04-14, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by dejong77

only 8 games today. On the early afternoon lines i will plays the following games:

Diamondbacks-Padres U 6,5 +102
Tigers-Indians U 7,5 +108
Blue Jays-Rays U 7,5 -110
Angels-Twins U 8,5 -110

I liked the Cardinals-Brewers game but it was to low when i checked. Now it moved to 8,5 at +108. I am adding it to my bets tonight.

runline
I am not totally sold on this one. But there is enough data to justify a pick. I am playing it with caution. only 5 SBR bet credits instead of the usual 10 i play on the unders.

Mariners -1,5 +130

dejong77 · 09-05-14, 01:26 AM

A good day with the unders again. Going 3-2 for a profit of 1 unit. The runline on Mariners also won. adding an additional 0,65 unit profit.

Mariners -1,5 +130 W 1,30 / 2 = 0,65
Cardinals-Brewers U 8,5 108 W 1,08
Diamondbacks-Padres U 6,5 +102 W 1,02
Tigers-Indians U 7,5 +108 L -1,00
Blue Jays-Rays U 7,5 -110 W 0,91
Angels-Twins U 8,5 -110 L -1,00

dejong77 · 09-05-14, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by RollinDo

I personally like Unders in Baltimore and Texas best.
No score 1st in TB....
I may play 1 other Under based on line movement...maybe Minnesota game.

Dejong you do a nice job with Unders...keep it up man!
Tough stretch right now in mlb.

hopefully you didn't play any of those. Orioles and Rangers went over. Missed the twins by only a half run.

dejong77 · 09-05-14, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by BeanTownClown88

That Delgado guys looks like crap..also saw some pretty strong data supporting over in Minnesota, its 31-15-5 over last 51 head to head match-ups.

To each their own, BOL!

You were right about the minnesota game. But i only missed it at a half run.

RollinDo · 09-05-14, 07:45 AM

Originally posted by dejong77

hopefully you didn't play any of those. Orioles and Rangers went over. Missed the twins by only a half run.

Those were the logical picks...guess capping is not worth it anymore this season.
June - mid August was fairly straight forward to call an Under, but the last 2 weeks are near impossible....flip a coin.
Wouldn't be shocked to see TB game with 10+ runs tonight, because stats lead to Under but the easy Unders are nothing but anymore.
1st Inning No Score may be the best way to go this time of year.

dejong77 · 09-05-14, 10:46 AM

Going to start with 2 picks on the afternoon game

Pirates-Cubs U 8,5 -110
Cubs ML +114 (5 bet credits)

RollinDo · 09-05-14, 10:57 AM

Looks pretty strong on the Under stats wise.

dejong77 · 09-05-14, 02:11 PM

Adding the following bets for the evening games:

Phillies-Nationals U 7,5 -105
Braves-Marlins U 7,5 -105
Mets-Reds U 7,5 -115
Royals-Yankees U 7,5 -115
Astros-Athletics U 7,5 -115
Blue Jays-Red Sox U 9,5 -105
Giants-Tigers U 8,5 +100

RollinDo · 09-05-14, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by dejong77

Adding the following bets for the evening games:

Phillies-Nationals U 7,5 -105
Braves-Marlins U 7,5 -105
Mets-Reds U 7,5 -115
Royals-Yankees U 7,5 -115
Astros-Athletics U 7,5 -115
Blue Jays-Red Sox U 9,5 -105
Giants-Tigers U 8,5 +100

Wow. That's a lot of Unders for a Friday night!

I usually cut my Under bets in half on Friday...hot bats usually.
Anyhow GL to ya!
I do like the Yankees Under and maybe Oakland too.

dejong77 · 09-05-14, 03:07 PM

yeah i looked at the board but just to many games i like. I am 8 units up. So i can take the risk.

there were also 5 runline picks i liked. but as i allready picked 8 unders, I better pass on those.

Maybe if i win Pirates-Cubs Under, i will play 3-4 runlines

Athletic -1,5
Angels -1,5
Tigers -1,5
White Sox -1,5

RollinDo · 09-05-14, 03:10 PM

Cubs Under not looking real good...3 errors cost 2-3 more runs than should be

dejong77 · 09-05-14, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by RollinDo

Cubs Under not looking real good...3 errors cost 2-3 more runs than should be

We still have 3 runs reserve.

. Will stay 3-2 for a while. rain delay.

alamo · 09-05-14, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by dejong77

Adding the following bets for the evening games:

Phillies-Nationals U 7,5 -105
Braves-Marlins U 7,5 -105
Mets-Reds U 7,5 -115
Royals-Yankees U 7,5 -115
Astros-Athletics U 7,5 -115
Blue Jays-Red Sox U 9,5 -105
Giants-Tigers U 8,5 +100

Could be a complete washout. Bar the Yankees , every other game close to over already.

alamo · 09-05-14, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by dejong77

Adding the following bets for the evening games:

Phillies-Nationals U 7,5 -105
Braves-Marlins U 7,5 -105
Mets-Reds U 7,5 -115
Royals-Yankees U 7,5 -115
Astros-Athletics U 7,5 -115
Blue Jays-Red Sox U 9,5 -105
Giants-Tigers U 8,5 +100

Fck me. Every one of them goes over bar the yanks.

Weird thing is. The games you didn't play all went under.

RollinDo · 09-05-14, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Fck me. Every one of them goes over bar the yanks.

Weird thing is. The games you didn't play all went under.

Telling you these totals hard as heck to cap in the past 2 weeks...just don't play too many Unders on Friday night!
As far as sides, wow - how can you pick a winner nowadays.
I can't even pick 1 winner out of 16 games! Went with Tigers tonight.

alamo · 09-05-14, 11:33 PM

Originally posted by RollinDo

Telling you these totals hard as heck to cap in the past 2 weeks...just don't play too many Unders on Friday night!
As far as sides, wow - how can you pick a winner nowadays.
I can't even pick 1 winner out of 16 games! Went with Tigers tonight.

Yes, the grand salami has hit 10 of the last 11 days on the over.