MLB Totals Unders and runline System Test

dejong77 · 08-28-14, 11:28 AM

Made 28 SBR bet credits profit yesterday. Lets see if i can build on that.

I am playing on all afternoon games

8/28 Totals
Yankees-Tigers (U 8,5 100)
Rockies-Giants (U 7,5 122) (SBR U7 @ 100)

8/28 runline
Cubs (-1,5 1,54)

jkatakoon · 08-28-14, 02:43 PM

Good luck!

Will be following this thread.

labones00 · 08-28-14, 04:46 PM

I'm liking what I see, keep up the good work!

dejong77 · 08-28-14, 05:42 PM

Shame that Cubs didn't bounce back.

totals started good today. one win in the pocket and another still looking good. have 2 runs advantage in the top of the 9th.

playing 2 more totals today.

Indians-White Sox (U 8,5 -105)
Athletics-Angels (U 7,5 -105)

and one more runline to make up for the Cubs lose
Astros (-1,5 160)

dejong77 · 08-28-14, 05:46 PM

Not grading the next play win or loss

but playing NY mets ML +115 on my sportsbook account

dejong77 · 08-28-14, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by labones00

I'm liking what I see, keep up the good work!

You are not the only one. I expected once posting here that i got jinxed. lol

Originally posted by jkatakoon

Good luck!

Will be following this thread.

Thanks

RollinDo · 08-28-14, 06:00 PM

I'll be playing Oak-LAA Under 8...Once I find out Ump assignment.

dejong77 · 08-29-14, 01:46 AM

Originally posted by RollinDo

I'll be playing Oak-LAA Under 8...Once I find out Ump assignment.

hopefully you played it. Total finished at 7 even after extra innings.

RollinDo · 08-29-14, 01:50 AM

I played it, but went 1-3 on Unders for Thurs...haven't done that bad in a couple weeks.
Awful day, but I'll move on.

dejong77 · 08-29-14, 02:00 AM

a recap of the action on august 28th

we lost the cubs one but astros made up for the loss and added ,60 unit profit. the Under performed great today. 4-0 for almost a gain of 4 units. at least i have some fat around the body if things start to go wrong.

15 games to choose from tomorrow.

runline:
Astros (-1,5 160) -2 W 1,60
Cubs (-1,5 154) + 5 L 1,00

Day: 1-1 + 0,60 units
Total 4-2 + 3,26 units

Under:
Yankees-Tigers (U 8,5 100) (5) W 1,00
Rockies-Giants (U 7,5 122) (SBR U7 @ 100) (5) W 1,00
Indians-White Sox (U 8,5 -105) (5) W 0,95
Athletics-Angels (U 7,5 -105) (7) W 0,95

Day: 4-0 + 3,90 units
Total: 7-2 + 5,02 units

SBR Sportsbook 1028 -> 1084

Note: i forgot to play the cubs runline. therefore the sbr sportsbook credits are higher then actual result.

dejong77 · 08-29-14, 02:00 AM

a recap of the action on august 28th

we lost the cubs one but astros made up for the loss and added ,60 unit profit. the Under performed great today. 4-0 for almost a gain of 4 units. at least i have some fat around the body if things start to go wrong.

15 games to choose from tomorrow.

runline:
Astros (-1,5 160) -2 W 1,60
Cubs (-1,5 154) + 5 L 1,00

Day: 1-1 + 0,60 units
Total 4-2 + 3,26 units

Under:
Yankees-Tigers (U 8,5 100) (5) W 1,00
Rockies-Giants (U 7,5 122) (SBR U7 @ 100) (5) W 1,00
Indians-White Sox (U 8,5 -105) (5) W 0,95
Athletics-Angels (U 7,5 -105) (7) W 0,95

Day: 4-0 + 3,90 units
Total: 7-2 + 5,02 units

SBR Sportsbook 1028 -> 1084

Note: i forgot to play the cubs runline. therefore the sbr sportsbook credits are higher then actual result.

RollinDo · 08-29-14, 09:48 AM

I am contemplating the following Unders for today...wanted to see if any align with your system. Thanks.

Mil - SF (U 7.5)...buy 1/2 run
Chi-StL (U 8)...buy 1/2 run
BoSox-Rays (U 7.5)
Nats - M's (U 6)

Bostongambler · 08-29-14, 09:57 AM

Well lets hope the last month of the season is good to u. Good luck.

dejong77 · 08-29-14, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by RollinDo

I am contemplating the following Unders for today...wanted to see if any align with your system. Thanks.

Mil - SF (U 7.5)...buy 1/2 run
Chi-StL (U 8)...buy 1/2 run
BoSox-Rays (U 7.5)
Nats - M's (U 6)

Brewers-Giants would certainly be a play i would pick up at 7,5. But i would never give up money to buy a 1/2 run. So will keep an eye out if the line moves to 7,5. if not i will skip it.

Cubs-Cardinals is going to be a play. There are some filters that point to the game going over. Which you see back in the line. The under is set on even. So with 5 units up i am taking the risk. Jump at it while youre hot

Red Sox-Rays is a full go. If i would have a top play. This would problably be it. At almost even it almost looks like a steal.

Nationals-Mariners would be a full go. But as the line is to close to some magic numbers i would only play it if it at least goes with a half run up.

Hope that helps you.

RollinDo · 08-29-14, 02:31 PM

Originally posted by dejong77

Brewers-Giants would certainly be a play i would pick up at 7,5. But i would never give up money to buy a 1/2 run. So will keep an eye out if the line moves to 7,5. if not i will skip it.

Cubs-Cardinals is going to be a play. There are some filters that point to the game going over. Which you see back in the line. The under is set on even. So with 5 units up i am taking the risk. Jump at it while youre hot

Red Sox-Rays is a full go. If i would have a top play. This would problably be it. At almost even it almost looks like a steal.

Nationals-Mariners would be a full go. But as the line is to close to some magic numbers i would only play it if it at least goes with a half run up.

Hope that helps you.

Thanks man.
I think I'll play Rays Under 7.5 and see how early games go...if it loses, probably go with Mil - SF (U 7)

dejong77 · 08-29-14, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by Bostongambler

Well lets hope the last month of the season is good to u. Good luck.

I hope soo too. And then we have a bunch of playoff games to test with. Maybe after that i will build one for NHL too.

RollinDo · 08-29-14, 02:33 PM

When a total is at 7.5 with plus money, I like to buy half a run if it's -120 or better, which is what I got Cubs-Cards for...interesting line movement there, but same happened last night in LAA.

dejong77 · 08-29-14, 02:47 PM

Runline 8/29
Today i am going to play 3 runlines. All in the early games
Pirates -1,5 155
Orioles-1,5 105
Jays -1,5 170

Unders 8/29
Reds-Pirates U 7,5 -115
Cubs-Cardinals U 7,5 100
Rockies-Diamondbacks U 8,5 -110
Red Sox - Rays U 7,5 -105
Tigers-White Sox U 9 108
Indians-Royals U 7,5 105
Rangers-Astros U 8,5 -110

RollinDo · 08-29-14, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by dejong77

Runline 8/29
Today i am going to play 3 runlines. All in the early games
Pirates -1,5 155
Orioles-1,5 105
Jays -1,5 170

I personally would play Pirates at -1 since it seems they win a lot of 1 - run games...do what you see best fit though.

dejong77 · 08-29-14, 03:32 PM

at least with -1,5 there is no push

and i find it heavy chalk.

Underdog of the day:
playing Rangers at Houston at 124

100 bet credits on the line today.

dejong77 · 08-29-14, 11:20 PM

Texas won at houston. adding 1,24 unit minus the unit i lost yesterday on the mets makes 0,24 unit profit.
The runline went 1-2 for a loss of 0,95 unit.

Runline 8/29
Pirates -1,5 155 L -1
Orioles-1,5 105 W +1,05
Jays -1,5 170 L -1

today: 1-2 -0,95 units
total: 5-4 + 2,31

dejong77 · 08-30-14, 02:00 AM

Good result on the totals again today. went 4-3 for + 0,91 unit. Lost 0,95 unit on the runline. I see my betcredits on my sportsbook went from 1084 ->1080. This is because i use the odds at my bookmaker to calculate profits and not the lower lines at sbr sportsbook.
For example tigers-white sox was -105 at sbr while @ 5Dimes it was 105. This is a 10 cents difference 0,10 X 10 = 1 euro/bet credit.

Reds-Pirates U 7,5 -115 (3) W + 0,87
Cubs-Cardinals U 7,5 100 (9) L -1,00
Rockies-Diamondbacks U 8,5 -110 (7) W +0,91
Red Sox - Rays U 7,5 -105 (12) L -1,00
Tigers-White Sox U 9 108 (8) W + 1,08
Indians-Royals U 7,5 105 (7) W + 1,05
Rangers-Astros U 8,5 -110 (19) L -1,00
today: 4-3 + 0,91 units
Total: 11-5 + 5,93 units

dejong77 · 08-30-14, 04:13 AM

Originally posted by RollinDo

I personally would play Pirates at -1 since it seems they win a lot of 1 - run games...do what you see best fit though.

I wolud have been the right play in this case.

Originally posted by RollinDo

When a total is at 7.5 with plus money, I like to buy half a run if it's -120 or better, which is what I got Cubs-Cards for...interesting line movement there, but same happened last night in LAA.

I always keep the original lines. Certainly at even or better. Because on average it keeps the strike rate down. more to 50%. plus you only lay money for a push. In the end the under on the cubs didn't cover.

You are good in picking offers.

Mil - SF (U 7.5)...buy 1/2 run (15) L
Chi-StL (U 8)...buy 1/2 run (9) L
BoSox-Rays (U 7.5) (12) L
Nats - M's (U 6) (11) L

I did have an idea it would go over for cubs-cards. Nationals-Mariners i didn't look at closely as i mostly skip games at a Under 7 mark. Brewers-Giants same story. Red Sox-Rays took me by surprise.

dejong77 · 08-30-14, 09:34 AM

Starting the day

Yankees-Blue Jays U 8,5 +105
Reds-Pirates U 7,5 -120

Outside the system i will play my underdog of the Day.

Blue Jays +115.

dejong77 · 08-30-14, 12:01 PM

Here is an other system i am trying out. not back tested so follow or fade with care:
Tigers-White Sox G1 over 7 -120
Tigers-White Sox G2 over 9,5 -115
Seattle ML +105 against Nationals
Dodgers-Padres U 6,5 +100
Rockies-Diamondbacks U 8,5 -120
Miami-Atlanta O 7 -120

This will not be graded in the other system.

dejong77 · 08-30-14, 02:52 PM

Both Jays bets covered.

Originally posted by dejong77

Starting the day

Yankees-Blue Jays U 8,5 +105 (2) W + 1,05
Reds-Pirates U 7,5 -120

Outside the system i will play my underdog of the Day.

Blue Jays +115. W +1,15

dejong77 · 08-30-14, 03:10 PM

Because i won the Jays underdog game of the day, i am going to split the winnings into 4 and put it on 4 other underdogs:
Mariners +105
Angels +110
Rangers 112
Cubs 112

dejong77 · 08-30-14, 05:17 PM

Unders for the late games on 08/30
Rockies-Diamondbacks U 8,5 -120
indians-royals U 7,5 1,08
rangers-astros U 8,5 -105

Runline 08/30
Rays -1,5 +135

dejong77 · 09-01-14, 11:52 AM

I took a break sunday. The SBR sportsbook went from 1080 credits -> to 1142 credits.

unders:
Phillies-Braves U 6,5 -115
Red Sox U 7,5 -130
Brewers-Cubs U 10,5 -115
Mariners-Athletics U 8 +100
Diamondback-Padres U 6,5 -115
Giants-Rockies U10 +100
Nationals-Dogers U 7,5 -125
Pirates-Cardinals U 7,5-110

runline:
Marlins -1,5
Rays -1,5
Giants -1,5
Royals -1,5

These ones are from the other system:
Marlins ML -125
Marlins U 7 -120
Orioles -124
Orioles U8 -115
Pirates +100
Giants -135
dodgers +105

dejong77 · 09-02-14, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by dejong77

I took a break sunday. The SBR sportsbook went from 1080 credits -> to 1142 credits.

unders:
Phillies-Braves U 6,5 -115 (7) L -1
Red Sox U 7,5 -130 (7) W 0,77
Brewers-Cubs U 10,5 -115 (6) W 0.87
Mariners-Athletics U 8 +100 (7) W 1,00
Diamondback-Padres U 6,5 -115 (4) W 0,86
Giants-Rockies U10 +100 (6) W 1,00
Nationals-Dogers U 7,5 -125 (10) L -1,0
Pirates-Cardinals U 7,5-110 (9) L -1,0

record 5-3 + 1,50

runline:
Marlins -1,5 W
Rays -1,5 L
Giants -1,5 W
Royals -1,5 L

These ones are from the other system:
Marlins ML -125 W
Marlins U 7 -120 L
Orioles -124 L
Orioles U8 -115 L
Pirates +100 L
Giants -135 W
dodgers +105 L

The unders and runline performed well but the new system i am trying out lost me a few units. So will stick with the unders and the runline.

dejong77 · 09-02-14, 04:07 PM

Today is my birthday and lets see if i am getting a big birthday present.

Roling with the following picks.

runline:
Angels -1,5 +105
Yankees -1,5 + 130
Dodgers -1,5 + 120

Unders:
Phillies-braves U 7,5 -115
Mets-Marlins U8 -110
Pirates-Cardinals U 7,5 -115Diamondbacks-Padres U 6,5 -115
Red Sox-Yankees U 8,5 +110
Jays-Rays U 7,5 -110

Underdog
Pirates +133
Rockies +133
Tigers 130
Jays +108
Reds +136

dejong77 · 09-03-14, 10:45 AM

Lost about 3 units yesterday. Still about 6 units profit left. So will focus on unders

Unders 9/3
Phillies-Braves U 7,5 -125
Pirates-Cardinals U 8,5 -115

Will add more games later

BeanTownClown88 · 09-03-14, 12:51 PM

Under been getting crushed...I dont like totals as much but Washington/LAD O7.5 looks too good to pass up

dejong77 · 09-03-14, 02:11 PM

The first picks look to go 1-1

second part of the afternoon games i play are:
Giants-Rockies U 11 -115
Mariners-Athletics U 6,5 -120