MLB 2014 BigDogs Thread "New Light Version"

[pacocn]

Fit, happy forth, let the fireworks of dogs begin!!!!!
be safe!!!!!!!

[fitguy67]

good luck to all...especially to the fans/backers of the phillies, mariners, diamondbacks, rockies, and astros

[alamo]

Rockies have now lost 16 of their last 18 outings

[fitguy67]

and i've been on them like a cheap timex watch..."taking a licking...making it harder and harder (psychologically) to keep ticking"...actually, because we're re-setting daily the $-size of our practical-unit "t" there's always exactly 50 bullets remaining...it's always just as easy to keep firing away (but psychologically it's encouraging when we see the calibre of our bullets increasing...and demoralizing when they shrink)

now time to update the records...Wed and Thursday were standard "2outa5" sideways days...
but yesterday was an 0-fer, actually quite rare--2nd (maybe 3rd) out of the 26 days...

given the W-L being quite a bit worse than the expected 40% (almost ENTIRELY down to fooking Colorado playing like a high-school team...going 2-16 vs. the 7-11 you'd expect from a crap team pretty well explains our overall position)...thread's actually doing quite well=FAR less unit damage than u'd expect...(thanks largely to the natural unit-size atrophication due to the daily re-definition subject to the latest balance)

[fitguy67]

Wednesday, Jul02=d24: 2-3, +0.2179u

Overall: 35-63, -5.5072u

eodd24	Wed	2-Jul	eod23 values at top/d24 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,427.49	153.97	6108.06	9404.57	33	60	3,302.02	3,874.53	-572.51
88.55	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
cle	151	58.64	88.55	W		88.55		88.55
col	205	43.2	88.55	L			43.20	-43.20
arz	142	62.36	88.55	L			62.36	-62.36
nym	178	49.75	88.55	L			49.75	-49.75
chc	142	62.36	88.55	W		88.55		88.55
∆	160.2	276.31	442.75	2	3	177.10	155.31	21.79
Σ	154.2	6384.37	9847.32	35	63	3,479.12	4,029.84	-550.72
182	prev	1-Jul	182	launch	5,000.00	4427.49	B=	4449.28
183	this	2-Jul	183	159	100.00	88.55	t =	88.99

[fitguy67]

Thur, July03=d25: 2-3, +0.0529u

Overall: 37-66, -5.4543u

an especially frustrating day (winning day's first two games, and being Rockies-free over last three...AND sitting with a TON of hi-pop 3-leg parlays, both ML and RL...that needed just one more nudge)

eodd25	thu	3-Jul	eod24 values at top/d25 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,449.28	154.24	6384.37	9847.32	35	63	3,479.12	4,029.84	-550.72
88.99	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
stl	142	62.67	88.99	W	1545	88.99		88.99
arz	136	65.43	88.99	W	1905	88.99		88.99
tam	166	53.61	88.99	L	1908		53.61	-53.61
tor	141	63.11	88.99	L	2105		63.11	-63.11
hou	159	55.97	88.99	L	2205		55.97	-55.97
∆	147.9	300.79	444.95	2	3	177.98	172.69	5.29
Σ	154.0	6685.16	10292.27	37	66	3,657.10	4,202.53	-545.43
183	prev	2-Jul	183	launch	5,000.00	4449.28	B=	4454.57

184

this

3-Jul

184

159

100.00

88.99

t =

89.09

[fitguy67]

Fri, Jul04=d26: 0-5, -2.6814u

Overall: 37-71, -8.1357u

that's just 34.26% of the 108 games
the expected dog record would be more like 43-65 (39.8% of the 108 games)

note that the shortfall of just 6 games is almost entirely accounted for by one team, the Rockies going 2-16 (vs. the 7-11 you'd expect from a shit team like this)...

but we do NOT change anything...do not black-list any team (altho' it's fun to talk/bitch as if we might)...because "Mr. Eventual Regression to Long-term Sustainable Numbers" (Mr. Erlison) is our constant companion, and he eventually always ravages "Miss Excessively Wonderful or Shitty in the short-term" (Miss Ews)

We will love the fukking Rox before the season is over...and if we cut the bastids off now, before they have a chance to "make it up to us"...it'll be nonstop ...

we stay curiosity- (not greed-/frustration-) driven

eodd26	fri	4-Jul	eod25 values at top/d26 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,454.57	153.96	6685.16	10292.27	37	66	3,657.10	4,202.53	-545.43
89.09	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
phi	184	48.42	89.09	L	1705		48.42	-48.42
arz	156	57.11	89.09	L	1910		57.11	-57.11
COL	184	48.42	89.09	L	1935		48.42	-48.42
sea	148	60.2	89.09	L	2010		60.20	-60.20
hou	165	53.99	89.09	L	2105		53.99	-53.99
∆	166.1	268.14	445.45	0	5	0.00	268.14	-268.14
Σ	154.4	6953.3	10737.72	37	71	3,657.10	4,470.67	-813.57
184	prev	3-Jul	184	launch	5,000.00	4454.57	B=	4186.43
185	this	4-Jul	185	159	100.00	89.09	t =	83.73

[fitguy67]

So here we sit now, at the start of a clean d27 sheet

d27	sat	5-Jul	eod26 values at top/d27 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,186.43	154.43	6953.3	10737.72	37	71	3,657.10	4,470.67	-813.57
83.73	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
∆		0	0.00	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	154.4	6953.3	10737.72	37	71	3,657.10	4,470.67	-813.57
185	prev	4-Jul	185	launch	5,000.00	4186.43	B=	4186.43
186	this	5-Jul	186	159	100.00	83.73	t =	83.73

[fitguy67]

today's 5-pack

skdld	away	(abc)	1000
st. time	HOME	(ABC)	price
(edt)	team	opponent	quoted
1305	bal		142
1605	chc		183
1605	phi		160
1610	arz		137
2205	hou		149

[fitguy67]

damn, two apparently not-so-rare 0-fers in a row...

bringing overall to a horrendous (and labby-line busting) 32.74% of 113 (37-76)

a dog hit-rate so low is unsustainable...and will eventually be corrected for, but like Jesus coming, we never know the hour nor the day...so better to just persist...with the freshly-defined set of 50 new bullets we have to fire every day (noticeably shrinking in calibre over this severe three-week slump to noticeably minimize the damage...things are MUCH less bad than they would have been if we were risking and losing full-sized $100 units all along)...betting to win has us losing only about 2/3 of a "t" each time...and the size of those t's themselves have been thankfully down-justing as the slump continues...and will continue to do so, until a few up-days kick in.

long season...marathon not a sprint....curiosity- not greed-driven...yada-yada-yada...

here are the five dogs and their actual prices as i bought them all earlier today at bet365

arz +146
chc +150
phi +140
hou +190
tor +143

will update later...human nature to not be keen to arrange the latest shipment of shit

[fitguy67]

and the beat goes on: 1-14 last 3 days

today's five-pack (with actual bet365 numbers i got just minutes ago)

bal +165
chw+175
pit +146
tor +155
min +190

[alamo]

Are you still on the planet Fit ?

[alamo]

Fit, Have you abandoned this project ?