MLB 2014 BigDogs Thread "New Light Version"

[fitguy67]

thanks, pac...2 of the nights' dogs have made it safely back into the kennel (with full cashes swiped onto their neck ID's)...but MIA and NYY are still out there...seem to be doing ok...but you know this game way better than I do...how you just can't count 'em as bein' home yet...till you hear 'em actually howling for their Alpo...

ahhh...the superstition i'm developing behind "word blizzarding"...rather than nervous-nelly game- or even scoreboard-watching, i instead piss, moan and bitch about the bad thing brewing i fear...like a bullshit Heat comeback or a Miami meltdown with a 3-run lead...

anyhow, while bitching about how painful it is to sweat the last bit of a game when you're bigdog has a nice lead...MIA cashes so it's 3 - 0 and waiting for NYY...and my "story arc" bet on NBA/books wanting to cross up all those "Heat can't lose two in a row" bettors and get this series on a zig-zag "home court doesn't mean anything with these two teams....blablabla" marketing angle...well it paid off too...

Fit's been getting his ass handed to him the last few days by tennis...so (especially if the yanks come thru)...this is just what the bankroll doctor ordered!

See u've been either "killing it" or "surviving till the next round of "killing it" kicks in"...you're one of the more reliable guys over the haul here at SBR...

i like your thoughtful balanced-portfolio approach ( a few well -selected dogs, a few well-selected small faves...and a few o/u's as well)...here, i'm just auto-trading...and money-managing the hell out of things...don't think about the baseball, but lord i spend my time thinking about how to massage the $numbers related to the whole "betting on it" schtick

[fitguy67]

ok, good start for thread's "official benchmark" account , 3-2 over first 2 days= monday's 1-2, tuesday's 2-0

very easy to have done better than that, as the 3 "system-driven" plays i've posted (1 on Monday, 2 yesterday) have all hit, making me 6-2 with posted plays...yesterday especially sweet 4-0, with a push in bases...

plus a blind play on sports-entertainment (NBA) SAN +175 just before game-time...i liked the price so, so i talked my way into it on the basis "story arc"...you know, keep the zig-zag going, (at the same time allow books to finally break the backs of all those "Heat WILL NOT lose 2 in a row" zombies" who've been killing them for the last two years)...so yesterday was 5-0 for me personally

[fitguy67]

Plays for Wed, June 11's official thread record, to use as "benchmark" for your own actual "shopping for dogs" project

1237. min +139

2010. CHW +141

2210. SEA +163

Note: three-letter code for away teams will be "lower case"
three-letter code for HOME teams will be UPPER CASE

Note: the four digit number that starts each selection is the 24-hour time without the colon (EDT="NewYork" Time)

All plays ACTION, all TO WIN exactly 2% of project's latest Bank.

[fitguy67]

all prices as "hot off the press" as possible...min game starts in MINs...hurry!

*two rather-rare HOME dogs today...

*also a rare +200+ line right now...mia +210 /TEX...

*the way i play...to win...makes this a fun "el cheapo" flier...so I'll bite at it, and keep a side tally on such uberdogs (and if i snap it up now at an uber-price and it later settles into a sub-200 close...i got an improbably-good, guaranteed-BTCL price on the selection)

[fitguy67]

Eureka!

Optimal record-keeping/reporting format!

It bridges the gap between the convenience of $ and the anonymity of "units".

Rather than explain it with a word-blizzard that'll put you to sleep...let me demonstrate with the results of the last two days' record, which represents the full "since launch" history of the thread.

Starting with generic investment (initial bank), I = $5000
made up of 50 fixed units ("u") of size u= I/50= $100
meaning bank for day1 is B = I + N = $5000
made up of 50 variable "to win it" amounts (or "twinits"), such that t= B/50 = $100 (which will = u in the beginning, then vary thereafter)

Along comes day #1 (to which we apply the $-defintion of "t" to each and every play)

henceforth any "naked numbers" imply $...simply moving the decimal place two places to the left will conveniently "convert" any of our $figures instantly into units

sea + 179: -55.87 / + 100
chc +139 : -71.94 / +100
min +161: -62.11 / +100
________________________________
A= 100
S= 134.05 (71.94 + 62.11)
N = -34.05 = 0.3405u (since our units, "u" are fixed at exactly $100...conversion is always this easy)

so new B = I + N = 4,965.95
which implies a new "to win it" amount or "twinit", t = B/50 = 99.32

Now along comes day #2 (to which we apply the latest $-defintion of "t" to each and every play)

CHC +148: -67.11 / +99.32

MIN +145: -68.50 / +99.32
____________________
A = 198.64
S = 0.00
N = +198.64 (note, I, B, A, S require no sign because they are just amounts, but N may be + or -, hence always putting the sign with it)...again, N = +1.9864u is seen at a glance

from now onward, when you see two numbers separated by a comma...the first one applies to the "latest change"..and the second number after the comma, refers to the running "thread total"...hence

A = 198.64, 298.64
S = 0, 134.05
N= +198.64, +164.59

got it...this way, all the "last change" AND "since launch" figures will be available all the time...no need for major updates
BTW...it's the second number of each "ordered pair" that is most important...
as we see now in determining our new B = 5, 164.59 (= I + N = 5000 + (+164.59)

which defines our new t = 103.29 (note that the ratio t/u =B/I...a handy quik way to "how we're doing"...it also tells u "at a glance" how big today's "t" is in relation to that very first day's)

_____________
so for a generic bank that started at 5000, today's plays would be to win 103.29

The beauty of setting up my generic reference account in this way with intial twinits = fixed units = $100

is that...

ANY $-figure can be easily converted into units dividing by 100 (aka. moving the decimal two places to the left)

or any generic $-figure can also be converted easily into amounts suitable to your situation by simply
"pro rating" the figure by "x/5000" where x= your starting bank

eg. if your bank for this project is 2,000...then the "t" that would apply to you would be 41.32 = 103.29 * (2000/5000)...and any $-figures you see could be converted to terms applicable to you by multiplying by that same 0.4 (=2000/5000) factor

[fitguy67]

tomorrow, no explanation of it..just the bare-bones report...lean and mean (AND comprehensive) AND easily convertible into both general "units" AND "specific $-amounts" that are appropriate to your bank-size

_____________

so far, min is a $103..29 winner, with CHW and SEA to come

[fitguy67]

I couldn't resist a personal flier on mia +230 at its close (even tho' it's clearly out of the range)...but i'm 3-0 over last two days on non-thread plays...so can afford this cheap shot at another "twinit"

Final Card for today (Wed, Jun 11)
1237. min +139 (i hit at +145, sia just before close...love this book for dogs)

2010. CHW +141 (i hit at +142, grk just before close)

2210. SEA +163 (i hit at +175, sia just a few mins ago)

___________

[fitguy67]

Since i don't have to "cap" anything...I have more time to develop other aspects of this hobby...and i've always been fascinated by the open-ended question of
"how best to record and analyze the
*time (C,Z)
*action (T,V)
*result (W,L-->A,S)
*performance (N, yield=N/V, average price, p=100*T/V, etc. etc.") of a betting project

In keeping with that, i've "re-written" (and improved greatly) my notes for the first two days action in more concise form, so that anyone (anyone?) else, interested in developing the number-tracking and number-management side of things...can look over my shoulder more clearly than would have been possible yesterday in post #40

if this has no interest to you, i urge you to invoke "TL/DR" now

Launch: I=5000...............u = 100 = I/50 (never changes)
B=5000 (= I + N).............t = 100 = B/50 (changes every business day)

Launch Day = Sun, Jun08 = c154 (ending the 22nd full calendar week of 2014)
........................................ .=z000 (buZiness day000 = c - 154)

M, Jun08= z001 = c155
sea + 179: -55.87 / + 100
chc +139 : -71.94 / +100.......................W=1
min +161: -62.11 / +100........................L= 2
________________________________________ __
A= 100..................................... ...........T= 300
S= 134.05 (71.94 + 62.11)....................V= 189.92
N = -34.05................................... ........p= +157.96
B= 4,965.95
t = 99.32



T, Jun09=z002=c156 (format =last change, new total)
chc +148 -67.11 / +99.32...............................W=2, 3
min +145 -68.50 / +99.32 .............................L =0, 2
________________________________________ __
A = 198.64,298.64.................................. ......T=198.64, 498.64
S = 0,..........134.05.................................. .....V= 135.61, 325.53
N = +198.64, +164.59................................. . p= +146.47, +153.18
C= 1, 2...(Calendar days since launch, essential for any "investment analysis")
Z = 1, 2...(buZiness days since launch, for $/work-day considerations)
B= 5,164.59 (vs. I = 5000)
t = 103.29 (vs. u = 100) note...B, t change daily (I,u are frozen "as at launch" values)

All numbers imply generic $, based on a hypothetical starting bank, I=$5000 divided up into 50 equal units, u = $100

You may convert any number above into unit form by dividing by the unit size, which is conveniently 100, thus you need only move the decimal point two places to the left (eg. N = +164.59 = 1.6459u)

You may convert (aka. "pro rate") any generic $ amount to $ specifically-applicable to your situation by multiplying by the ratio "x/5000" (ie. your starting bank/generic starting bank)...thus if your I =2000, all figures will be 40% of those shown.

[fitguy67]

W, Jun09=z003=c157
min +139, -74.31 / +103.29
chc +141, -73.26 / +103.29...............................W=2, 5
SEA +163, -63.37 / +103.29 ..............................L =1, 3
________________________________________ __
A = 206.58, 505.22........................................ T=309.87, 808.51
S = 63.37, 197.42........................................ ..V= 210.94, 536.47
N = +143.21, +307.80................................. ..p= +146.90, +150.71
C= 1, 3 / Z = 1, 3
B= 5,307.80 (vs. I = 5000)
t = 106.16 (vs. u = 100)

[pacocn]

Fit, i'm loving it!!!!!!! That t number continues to climb like
a moe hand under Curlies adam's apple.

[fitguy67]

paco, thought i'd let you in on my latest musings about the sorts of account-management nit-pickery that provides hours of "inter-tainment" (i absolutely loathe headsets...prefer to occupy my grey matter with sessions of "trying to figure shit (like this) out" while my body's occupied with repetitive cardio-building stuff)
____________
the nickname for this daily-adjusted amount that specifies each play's target henceforth will be ...

a "twinit" (pronounced as if it came from Minneapolis-St. Paul)...a "smooshing" of "to win it" and "unit"

_________

If that same $amount were instead always used to specifiy the risked amount (very common among Soccer and tennis cappers...who usually specify varying multiples of them on each play)..then we'll call this thing...

a riskit (as in "a cheap competitor to Nabisco's famous whole-wheat cracker" )...

and if instead you use the good 'ole american hybrid bet (dogs to Risk/ faves to win)...then let's call this same $-amount...

a hybrit (as in "a polite greeting to use with a Londoner")

_________________

calculation of each is the same: a fixed % of the current Bank

the way it's used will give it it's name...

t ("twinits"), r ("riskits"), h ("hybrits")

___________

each of these three versions of the same daily-changing fixed%/varying-$-amounts differ fundamentally from garden-variety fixed-$ units which are the same% but of a fixed-reference Bank...and, as such stays frozen at its day01 value (ignoring the daily changes to the current bank that your t/r/h pay careful attention to)...so, units are frozen unless/until you decide to reset things (which means you re-define your fixed-reference bank and, in effect, re-start things with a new day01)
_______

some of us have altogether too much time to think about this kinda' stuff

[fitguy67]

two official plays for today

1545. was +138 (@SFO)

1910. cle +138 (@BOS)

Bet Action (not listed pitchers), to WIN (not risk) 1 "twinit"=2% of whatever bank you have assigned to this project

"Look ma, no capping...we just buy THE OPPOSITE OF what others want the most."

[fitguy67]

12-Jun prev. closing values at top of table/see bottom for today's changes and new totals 5,307.80 150.71 536.47 808.51 W L 505.22 197.42 307.80 106.16 p V T 5 3 A S N=A-S was 138.0 76.93 106.16 L Cal days 76.93 -76.93 cle 138.0 76.93 106.16 L 3 76.93 -76.93 1 4 buZ days 3 1 4 ∆ 138.0 153.86 212.32 0 2 0.00 153.86 -153.86 Σ 147.9 690.33 1020.83 5 5 505.22 351.28 153.94 B= 5153.94 t = 103.08

trying to copy and paste from my excel sheet...not yet figured it out, obviously,

key values after 4 days of action:

5-5, +1.5394u (= $153.94 based on 5k bank)

yield= return on $-ventured = N/V = +153.94 /690.33 = +22.30%

still ridiculously early for any performance indicators, even for N being positive or negative to really mean anything...B must Breathe (as +N-days push it up and -N days pull it down...

one of the best weapons on our side, though, in the fight for net profitability...is an average price of +148 (with an inherent break-even hit rate of just 40% = 1/2.48)...

that and the "special sauce" of daily-adjusted bet-sizing to magnify the $-gained due to heaters (via bet-sizes automatically becoming more "agressive") and minimize the $-lost during the cold spells (via bet-sizes automatically becoming more "defensive")

back at 'em tomorrow

[fitguy67]

give this another whack,

this bit of my excel sheet rocks, but looks like crap when i do the garden-variety "cut and paste" schtick...all the fomatting is lost...

any help appreciated...

this sheet covers first 4 days of action, and is awaiting the entry of today's plays...notice that all of the totals from the bottom of the previous day's table (see post directly above) have been transferred to the top of this one (and are now designated as "previous"...results for any new action will be tabulated as changes at the bottom...and "folded into" the previous figures to give new totals at the very bottom

note: there's now no need to update daily, as this table will keep tabulating "change since previous" numbers and "new totals" for me at the bottom...all i have to do is keep the day numbers (in the lower left corner) accurate and everything will be properly accounted for

today=	fri	13-Jun	prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
5,153.94	147.88	690.33	1020.83	5	5	505.22	351.28	153.94
103.08	p	V	T	W	L	A	S	N=A-S
					since prv
					1
					holidays
					0
					cal days
					5
					buz days
					5
∆		0	0.00	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	147.9	690.33	1020.83	5	5	505.22	351.28	153.94
c.prv	162	12-Jun	4	c.lnq	5,000.00	5153.94	B=	5153.94
c.ths	163	13-Jun	5	158	50.00	103.08	t =	103.08

[pacocn]

Could we implement a hifit into the mix somehow? Keep up the good work!

[fitguy67]

today's 4 plays buried in this crappy spreadsheet "cut & paste" job that loses all it's crisp borders and formatting in the translation...

somebody help me out here

note 3 really nice fat-payout plays at 10pm-ish...

today=	fri	13-Jun	prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
5,153.94	147.88	690.33	1020.83	5	5	505.22	351.28	153.94
103.08	p	V	T	W	L	A	S	N=A-S
MIN	146	70.6	103.08		since prv
NYY	174	59.24	103.08		1
ARZ	188	54.83	103.08		holidays
TEX	172	59.93	103.08		0
					cal days
					5
					buz days
					5
∆	168.6	244.6	412.32	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	153.3	934.93	1433.15	5	5	505.22	351.28	153.94
c.prv	162	12-Jun	4	c.lnq	5,000.00	5153.94	B=	5153.94
c.ths	163	13-Jun	5	158	50.00	103.08	t =	103.08

[fitguy67]

i just hit 1908.MIN +150/det (sia)...5c better than 5d...sia getting to be my favorite book for big dogs

will zero in on the other three fat-payout 10pm games later

good shopping!

[b1slickguy]

Maybe this will work for you:
Use the SHIFT+PRINT SCREEN keys, paste into paint or another program, crop the spreadsheet, save file and upload using "Insert Image" option. Can also use a screen capture program. Hope that helps.
Good luck.

[fitguy67]

yeah...i've always avoided learning that "cropping" shit...there's no way around it, i suppose...

I already am ok with the full-screen/full-window shots pasted into paint......now i gotta learn how to "crop" things as well...

thanks for that

[pacocn]

Fit, great looking card, wishing you the best, i will have to check into sia
thanks

[fitguy67]

	shopping report
	quoted	actual	book
MIN	146	150	sia
NYY	174	185	sia
ARZ	188	195	grk
TEX	172	185	sia

i post this as an example to show how with a few extra books in your stable you can almost always meet/beat the prices that an early-in-the-day
price survey designates as "official" (ie. the foundation of your "big dog" shopping assignment for the day)

i only used two different books today, but if you look over the last few day's plays...i've also used pin, mbk, her and tsf...i would have also used fdm and whl...but they're on my "disabled list" till i can sort out a convenient way to get/keep them funded...

if you are US-res...the single-best book you can have is clearly 5d...
however, that doesn't mean you should not have more...
bol, heritage and one of the bookmaker/crs/dsi family are also solid "should haves", (listed in order of "most important/useful to have" first)...

i've HEARD (but have no firsthand knowledge of this...that the Bodog family of books offers prices that lean very similarly to what i enjoy at sia=they are often a worthwhile better alternative for big dogs than 5d... so Bovada might be something to look into (but, personally, i'd chek with other sbr-posters to find out if they're still guilty of profiling you as a dog-ear lover and "dealing to you from a separate server"...it might still be worthwhile to join up and enjoy the nice prices while they last but refuse any big bonus commitments that'll lock you into taking shit prices when they stop)...

another solid books available to Americans is Intertops and if you like big bonuses, you may broaden your net to consider others such as JustBet (a near-member of the bm/cris/dsi family....hanging similar lines but have retained their more-heavy reliance on bonuses vs. the others)
especially for US-residents...to help guide your building of a "stable" of books, one at a time, i suggest you read a little...(don't worry, not those things with actual paper pages...just a few helpful threads)...there's one guy's posts you'll see a lot of..."touchback"...i don't know if he's still posting...but he's American and the dude knows the ins and outs/advantages and disadvantages of all the books and all the bonus-related issues...which i don't...so you could do a search of his posts...from what i can tell almost all of his posts deal with books/understanding them/comparing them thing...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/2168578-so-what-best-sportsbooks.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sportsbooks-industry/2112210-best-shops-bonuses.html

if you're NOT american...you have a LOT more options and things are much less complicated...for starters you really should have pin, fdm, sia, mbk, grk, tsf, whl (listed in order of "most important/useful to have" first...)

[fitguy67]

i fukkin' love buying my "tickets to win a unit" at bargain prices...

win or lose you win...(you either cash your unit...or you save a ton of money vs. what it woulda' cost you if instead you'd bought your "ticket to win a unit" on a favorite that didn't cash...chalk is a bitch )

...your team is up and blows it...who cares...they weren't supposed to win anyhow, right...they're the dog...their supposed to lose...so no need to

on the other hand...when they win (they "weren't supposed to", remember)...it's nothing but

______________

speaking of ...thank you, oh unloved twins...

AND oh unloved yanks (a least for this one game)

AND oh unloved rangers

no thanks to the snakes...but with a +170 avg price 3-1 makes for a sweet night

_______________

"Look ma, no capping...we just buy THE OPPOSITE OF what MOST others want MOST."


"We don't win very often at all...just often ENOUGH to make money over time...it's a bumpy $-ride but, since we're fading MOST...(and everyone knows that over time...MOST lose)...well, you get the idea!"

[fitguy67]

here's how i'm going to report my actual "market fills" from now on

skdld	team		nsst= near skdld starting time
st. time	(away)	price	price		booking
(edt)	<HOME>	quoted	actual	book	time
1908	min	146	150	sia	nsst
2205	nyy	174	185	sia	nsst
2210	arz	188	195	grk	nsst
2210	tex	172	185	sia	nsst

ugh!!! i really gotta learn how to do that "cropping" shit

[pacocn]

Fit, i would really like to say good work, but i can't
there was no work involved except for shopping

[fitguy67]

ask wifey and kiddy if they're ever tired after shopping?

[fitguy67]

EOD5=End-of-Day#5 (after all day#5 results accounted for) Table

TTD after last night's completed action , ie. after day#5 = F, Jun13 (which wasn't an "unlucky" day for us...as it was several centuries ago for the Knights Templar)

at a glance notice how the B,t figures have changed from their starting values that show in the top-left of the table (and state the values as final at end of the previous report, which usually means--but not necessarily "yesterday"...several days may have lapsed) into their new values at the bottom right

notice how our generic Bank, B has grown from original value of 5000 (=50 x fixed-$100 "units", u = I/50...and 50 variable "twinits", t = B/50 each $100 on that very first day)...

to its current (now defined as EOD5 = SOD6) levels (where EOD = "end of day"/SOD ="start of day")
of B = 5,408.35 meaning 54.083 fixed-size "units", u...which will be re-distributed to 50 "twinits", now each $108.17

note also that this has been accomplished with a very-UNsustainably "lucky" hit rate, w = 57.14% =8/(8+6)
...look for B to breathe up and down in "rallies" and "slumps" caused simply by the upward push of +N days and the downward pull of -N days, caused by nothing more than the normal statistical (probability in the rear-view mirror) variance of independenct events, which--taken as a group--give us the "pleasant" result about 40% of the time, and the "unpleasant" one about 60% of the time...

so when we're on a nice $-upmove...cultivate gratitude...
and when we're on an uncomfortable $-down-move...cultivate perspective (aka patience/maturity/NOT being a dikk)

we've got good prices and a good "treating everyday as if it were the first day" bet-sizing regime...
all we need do is execute...add time...and stir...it's a long season boyz...and sports-betting profit is like a pot of good chili...

at end of fri 13-Jun prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom 5,153.94 147.88 690.33 1020.83 5 5 505.22 351.28 153.94 103.08 p V T W/L days A S N=A-S min 146 70.6 103.08 W since prv 103.08 103.08 nyy 174 59.24 103.08 W 1 103.08 103.08 arz 188 54.83 103.08 L no action 54.83 -54.83 tex 172 59.93 103.08 W 0 103.08 103.08 on calendar 5 of business 5 ∆ 168.6 244.6 412.32 3 1 309.24 54.83 254.41 Σ 153.3 934.93 1433.15 8 6 814.46 406.11 408.35 c.prv 162 12-Jun 4 c.lnq 5,000.00 5153.94 B= 5408.35 c.ths 163 13-Jun 5 158 50.00 103.08 t = 108.17

[fitguy67]

SOD6 = Start-of-Day#6 (before any day#6 action accounted for) Table

now the sheet is ready for day#6 = Sat, Jun14's action...

note how the 7 numbers across the top (the TTD totals for V, T, W, L, A, S, and N) match the numbers in the row that's labeled "capital greek-sigma"= "funny capital E" = new grand totals (as cap-sigma is know universally as the "summation" or "add everything (read: old + new) together" symbol

as they should because there's been no "change" (as we can see from the complete set of ZEROs in the row labeled with "triangle" = "greek-capital-delta" ...the universal symbol for "change"= "new"

old totals + ZERO ("nothing new")= old totals...right?

which brings us to the middle of the table...all the deltas are zero now cuz there's been no action (clean middle of the table)...but as soon as we start filling in the middle of the table with plays...bang! changes to V and T (and the average-price "p" based on them) kick in right away...the other 5 variables all need to wait for some plays to be decided before they change...

anyhow...without further ado...here's the template for today's action

at start of	sat	14-Jun	prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
5,408.35	153.29	934.93	1433.15	8	6	814.46	406.11	408.35
108.17	p	V	T	W/L	days	A	S	N=A-S
					since prv
					1
					no action
					0
					on calendar
					6
					of business
					6
∆		0	0.00	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	153.3	934.93	1433.15	8	6	814.46	406.11	408.35
c.prv	163	13-Jun	5	c.lnq	5,000.00	5153.94	B=	5408.35
c.ths	164	14-Jun	6	158	50.00	103.08	t =	108.17

[fitguy67]

anyone interested in what the hell i'm doing and how i account for it is advised to study the last 2 posts...

i'm not answering any questions from "TL/DR" dolts...

i'm spending tons of time on this project, because pretending that there are a few of you "out there" who actually are interested in managing a bettting project like a business, helps me to attempt to comprehensively explain everything ...which ultimately works to my advantage...because anticipating the questions of an intelligent AND interested observer leads me to dig deeper into the methods and terminology of what i'm doing as it unfolds...

if there is anyone out there actually following along with me (or, as standup comedians often say "working with" me)...and actually reading my "word blizzards"...maybe even passing "the litmus test"==you find yourself cross-checking some of the calculations/table entries on this page...on a hand-held calculator..."just to make sure you understand what this means"...if that's you...then you're my kinda' non-dolt...check in, please

[fitguy67]

probably the final post calendar-today...

all-in-one table presenting the quoted plays/prices along with the OP's actual "fills"

note that, even tho' i don't currently have the use of my fdm (5d) account, i have managed to meet or exceed it's price, using other books...in this case each of the three plays were executed at a different book..., and note that the whole process took but a few minutes (column on far right)...

the key time-saving component of the process is a price-comparison site...

such as the very-good (and very-free!) one run right here at sbr

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/

(if you're interested in how to go about adding books to your "stable", see #56 above)

skdld	team			nsst= near skdld starting time
st. time	(away)		price	price		booking
(edt)	<HOME>	opponent	quoted	actual	book	time
1605	col	SFO	153	153	grk	1428
1608	min	DET	184	185	sia	1431
2205	nyy	OAK	138	141.12	mbk	1436

"Look ma, no capping...we just buy THE OPPOSITE OF what MOST others want MOST."


"We don't win very often at all, really...just often ENOUGH to make money over time...it's a bumpy $-ride but, since we're fading MOST...(and everyone knows how MOST do, over time)...well, you get the idea!"

[nosaij]

been checking in daily! really like how mathy/statically this method is.

[fitguy67]

notice in top left corner of table, FNO it'll always state something like (in the order in which they might be released)

"EOD6" (End Of Day6)
"SOD7" (Start Of Day7)
"DIP7" (Day7InProgress)

and the presence/absence of plays with/without WL-results will line up logically with that status...

EOD6	sat	14-Jun	prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
5,408.35	153.29	934.93	1433.15	8	6	814.46	406.11	408.35
108.17	p	V	T	W/L	days	A	S	N=A-S
col	153	70.7	108.17	W	since prv	108.17		108.17
min	184	58.79	108.17	L	1		58.79	-58.79
nyy	138	78.38	108.17	L	no action		78.38	-78.38
					0
					on calendar
					6
					of business
					6
∆	156.1	207.87	324.51	1	2	108.17	137.17	-29.00
Σ	153.8	1142.8	1757.66	9	8	922.63	543.28	379.35
c.prv	163	13-Jun	5	c.lnq	5,000.00	5408.35	B=	5379.35
c.ths	164	14-Jun	6	158	50.00	108.17	t =	107.59

notice the loss-containment power of the betting protocol...
normal bet-sizing would have had us at 1-2, -108.17 (down 1.0817u)
instead we're 1-2, -29.00 (down just 0.29u)

in the long-run it's all about loss-containment...ask any successful poker-player

overall, we're 9-8, +379.35

meaning new B=5,379.35 and t=107.59

[fitguy67]

SOD7	sun	15-Jun	prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
5,379.35	153.80	1142.8	1757.66	9	8	922.63	543.28	379.35
107.59	p	V	T	W/L	days	A	S	N=A-S
					since prv
					1
					no action
					0
					on calendar
					7
					of business
					7
∆		0	0.00	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	153.8	1142.8	1757.66	9	8	922.63	543.28	379.35
c.prv	164	14-Jun	6	c.lnq	5,000.00	5408.35	B=	5379.35
c.ths	165	15-Jun	7	158	50.00	108.17	t =	107.59

note all the bold-faced content and the absence of any plays yet...

[fitguy67]

today's official plays/shopping reference

skdld away (abc) st. time HOME (ABC) price (edt) team opponent quoted 1308 min DET 147 1410 CHW kan 135 1410 HOU tam 156 1605 col SFO 182 1605 nyy OAK 163.0 1610 tex SEA 168.0 1610 arz LAD 135.0

[fitguy67]

which begets same shopping list (but now with official bet-sizes)

DIP7	sun	15-Jun	prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
5,379.35	153.80	1142.8	1757.66	9	8	922.63	543.28	379.35
107.59	p	V	T	W/L	days	A	S	N=A-S
min	147	73.19	107.59		since prv
CHW	135	79.7	107.59		1
HOU	156	68.97	107.59		no action
col	182	59.12	107.59		0
nyy	163	66.01	107.59		on calendar
tex	168	64.04	107.59		7
arz	135	79.7	107.59		of business
					7
∆	153.5	490.73	753.13	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	153.7	1633.53	2510.79	9	8	922.63	543.28	379.35
c.prv	164	14-Jun	6	c.lnq	5,000.00	5379.35	B=	5379.35
c.ths	165	15-Jun	7	158	50.00	107.59	t =	107.59

[fitguy67]

notice that a "fleet average" dog-price in the mid-150s is starting to emerge...

corresponding exactly to that 40% "rule of thumb" (roughly equivalent to drawing a TJQKA from a deck of cards)

there's the shopping list gentlemen...big 8-dog card today