MLB 2014 BigDogs Thread "New Light Version"

[fitguy67]

whooppee tai yai yo...rockin' to and fro'...

gotta play this next time there's any of that--what we called in college--"pokin' in the whiskers" goin' on..

[fitguy67]

Atlanta started off as the fukk-er...but somehow became the fukk-ee...better get back into the saddle for the finishing sequence and "money shot"....

i really need a day with at least 3 winnaz...cuz since Tuesday, i've been taking whatever $ i've saved by playing my dog "to win" vs. the normal "to risk" (eg. 5 dogs to win $100 cost me just 333.33 at typical +150 odds...leaving me 166.67)...and using it to put on a full round-robin of the same picks as two-leg parlays (eg. 5 teams creates 10 2-teamers...so i get 10 of 'em, each risking 16.67 each to win about $90 on avg...)...

adds a bit of volatility (and the excitement of a mucho big hit) vs. plain-vanilla American-style betting on all SU's ...if 0 or 1 teams win, of course your parlay stake for the day is done...leaving you not much worse than where u'd be if you bet to risk, but still worse than if you didn't monkey around with such things...

2 games won=1 parlay hit...will generally recoup about half your day's parlay-stake...3 will give a small profit...and anything over 3 is increasingly
last 3 days, have won exactly 2 games...worse than kissing one's sister but way better than falling short...

key thing to remember is that the typical parlay has +525 odds
on Tue: had 7-teams=21 small 2-leggers (need 4 games= 6pars to more-than break even)
on Wed: had 6-teams= 15 2-leggers...(needed 3 games=3 parlays to almost break even/4 to have a decent night)
then yesterday it was 5-teams = 10 2-leggers... (3-games=3 parlays woulda' been solid...frakkin' Minny...score 1 in the top of the 10th of a scoreless game... and still manage to lose)...

long season...and none of the dogs we play, taken individually are "supposed to win"...so can't get mad, blablabla...but when i got a full slate of parlays that'll stay crap or become wonderful based on millionaire professionals being able to execute...all of a sudden i'm not so "academic" about things anymore

anyhow, with 7/6/5 games in play...won 2-games each time (meaning just 1 parlay hit and a small to medium-sized loss)..tonight just 4-teams in play , meaning my leftover coin is distributed over just 6 2-team combinations...and looks like i'll end the night with just about the same chance of finally clearing the key 3-game (=3 parlay hits=more than 15 of the night's parlay-stakes) hurdle...

last night it was Hou and Minny effing up late...i'm hoping Atlanta gets "bak in the saddle" and Texas maybe even takes care of bidnis...3 out of four would put me up solidly tonight...and close to even over all for the all-dogs parlay-project thus far...all four hitting would score the full-slate of 6 tonight=much more than 30 of tonights parlay stakes and be heavenly...

Murphy's Law is a bitch: i'm hitting WELL above 45% and up 8 units with a fast start...AS SOON AS i decide to play for a little extra jam...my dogs go ice cold 33%...6-12 (2 out of 7, then 6, then 5 on my last three day's actual cards)

note to self...always start a new project after just starting to wake up from a slump...never in the midst of a heater

[fitguy67]

ok, first good night in a while...back from our -0.07u dip into the red...and will replenish my parlay-project's "side bet" account as well...

if Texas were to do something special could be a night but, i'm just grateful Atlanta came thru and the basic project's gonna be in the black again

[fitguy67]

EOD12: 3-1, +2.4247u

TTD: 20-27, +2.3465u

yield = +7.42% (the 2.3465u netted vs. the 31.6319u risked)

EOD12	fri	20-Jun	prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
4,992.18	153.04	2921.05	4470.43	17	26	1,756.37	1,764.19	-7.82
99.84	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	#days	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
atl	155	64.41	99.84	W	since prv	99.84		99.84
hou	183	54.56	99.84	W	1	99.84		99.84
phi	151	66.12	99.84	W	no action	99.84		99.84
tex	175	57.05	99.84	L	0		57.05	-57.05
					on calendar
					12
					of business
					12
∆	164.9	242.14	399.36	3	1	299.52	57.05	242.47
Σ	154.0	3163.19	4869.79	20	27	2,055.89	1,821.24	234.65
169	c.prv	19-Jun	11	c.lnq	5,000.00	4992.18	B=	5234.65
170	c.ths	20-Jun	12	158	50.00	99.84	t =	104.69

[pacocn]

3-1 back in the green!!!!!!!!!!

[fitguy67]

Day13 plays: 4-pack, avg-price +158

Remember: Action, to win 2% of appropriate bank

skdld	away	(abc)	1000	nsst= near skdld starting time
st. time	HOME	(ABC)	price	price		booking
(edt)	team	opponent	quoted	actual	book	time	status
1410	sea		155				U
1610	hou		154				U
1610	phi		138				U
2205	tex		185				U

[fitguy67]

benchmark thread record

yesterday 1-3, -0.9574u

history (13 days): 21-30, +1.3891

yield = +4.05% (1.3891u netted / 34.3116u risked)

_______________

EOD13	sat	21-Jun	prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
5,234.65	153.95	3163.19	4869.79	20	27	2,055.89	1,821.24	234.65
104.69	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	#days	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
sea	155	67.54	104.69	W	since prv	104.69		104.69
hou	154	67.98	104.69	L	1		67.98	-67.98
phi	138	75.86	104.69	L	no action		75.86	-75.86
tex	185	56.59	104.69	L	0		56.59	-56.59
					on calendar
					13
					of business
					13
∆	156.3	267.97	418.76	1	3	104.69	200.43	-95.74
Σ	154.1	3431.16	5288.55	21	30	2,160.58	2,021.67	138.91
170	c.prv	20-Jun	12	c.lnq	5,000.00	5234.65	B=	5138.91
171	c.ths	21-Jun	13	158	50.00	104.69	t =	102.78

[fitguy67]

today (day 14's) shopping list (aka. "official" plays for thread-record purposes)

another average day's 4-pack, average price +151.3

skdld	away	(abc)	1000	nsst= near skdld starting time
st. time	HOME	(ABC)	price	price		booking
(edt)	team	opponent	quoted	actual	book	time	status
1405	bal		188
1410	chw		139
1415	phi		143
1610	ARZ		135

[fitguy67]

Just for fun (aka. increased reward/risk, aka. volatility ) side-bet program

As i mentioned in a previous post...i've been developing and dabbling in a sub-project involving an additional daily purchase: a complete round-robin of 2-leg parlays (aka. "doubles") after all the straight-ups (aka. "singles") are submitted.

in the table below, note the two bold-faced numbers.
If we were betting the standard american way (SAW), we would have risked 411.12.
But because we're betting FrankSinatra's Way (FSW...aka. "My Way" )...notice the "savings" of $134.51 (=411.12-276.61)

I've been experimenting with "spending" (hopefully, it turns out to be more like hi-volatility "investing") this difference in a program of all possible 2-team combinations that emerge from the card.

So for today's 4-team card, with it's $134.51 "savings vs. the SAW"...spread over the 6 2-leggers that are formed...
we can get an additional set of 6 2-leg parlays, each risking $22.42 to win about $120-ish

since the odds on these parlays will always be in +525-ish region...you can always estimate how many you'll need to make each day's side-bet break even...anything beyond that will lead to escalating levels of wonderfulness.

so, today, if two of our dogs win = one parlay hits, we've kissed our sister...but if 3 teams win...3 parlays hit...meaning almost 16 parlay-stakes are won (vs. the 6 that we've paid for...) we're happy as clams...
...and if all 4 are hit...well, there'll be massive joy in mudville

MOD13	sun	22-Jun	EOD13 values at top/D14 chnges & new totals at bottom
5,138.91	154.13	3431.16	5288.55	21	30	2,160.58	2,021.67	138.91
102.78	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	#days	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
bal	188	54.67	102.78	U	since prv
chw	139	73.94	102.78	U	1
phi	143	71.87	102.78	U	no action
ARZ	135	76.13	102.78	U	0
					on calendar
					14
					of business
					14
∆	148.6	276.61	411.12	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	153.7	3707.77	5699.67	21	30	2,160.58	2,021.67	138.91
171	c.prv	21-Jun	13	c.lnq	5,000.00	5138.91	B=	5138.91
172	c.ths	22-Jun	14	158	50.00	102.78	t =	102.78

[fitguy67]

for the record...in case i want/need additional justification for any or i may engage in later...

i added tor+135 at the last minute cuz i was able to get +135 at greek...and also added the 4 extra 2-leggers created by that...bringing my personal ac to 5 singles and 10 doubles...

thread record unchanged

[fitguy67]

faak...1-4 for the thread...1-5 for FrankSinatra...the guy who insists on doing it "his way" (and 0-10 on the parlays, each risking abut 1/5th of a unit... for an additional -2.67u worth of unofficial )...

all sacrifices in the pursuit of curiosity-satisfaction...

___________________

[fitguy67]

as for the "plain vanilla" thread record

prev. TTD (days 1-13): 21-30, +1.3891u

today: 1-3, -1.1916u

new TTD (days 1-14) : 22-33, +0.1975u


so, with the well-established "rule of thumb" win-rate of 40%...we're (surprise)...flat units...

what we need now is a few heaters that bring win % up near 50% (magnified by our bet-size escalation), broken up by some good ole' coolers to bring it back down to where it belongs, maybe even into the mid-30s (with the built-in bet-size de-escalation to dampen the damage)...

the other good thing about some good runs (both + and -)...is that having a round-robin parlay program in place will REALLY magnify the $-benefit of the heaters (with a sweep or near sweep, eg. 5-1 should be as wonderful as 4-0...really "making" the season )

a few cycles of that the rest of the way, should do better than continually hovering about 40%

EOD14	sun	22-Jun	EOD13 values at top/D14 chnges & new totals at bottom
5,138.91	154.13	3431.16	5288.55	21	30	2,160.58	2,021.67	138.91
102.78	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	#days	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
bal	188	54.67	102.78	W		102.78		102.78
chw	139	73.94	102.78	L			73.94	-73.94
phi	143	71.87	102.78	L			71.87	-71.87
ARZ	135	76.13	102.78	L			76.13	-76.13
∆	148.6	276.61	411.12	1	3	102.78	221.94	-119.16
Σ	153.7	3707.77	5699.67	22	33	2,263.36	2,243.61	19.75
171	c.prv	21-Jun	13	c.lnq	5,000.00	5138.91	B=	5019.75
172	c.ths	22-Jun	14	158	50.00	102.78	t =	100.4

[fitguy67]

small card, two plays

note: if you want to dabble in the higher-volatility (ie. much higher occasional payouts when more than 40% of a card's bet-dogs hit/modestly-higher regular $-erosion when less than 40% of the bet-dogs hit) experiment...here's a good example

if you decided to play pit and bos tonight u'd normally risk 1u on each...total risk=2u
but here u'r only risking 1.4558u

so you could take the 0.5442u u "saved" and plunk it onto a round-robin of all the 2-team combinations you can form from this card (here...only 1 cuz there's only 2 teams...)...at fat parlay odds of (+141)*(+135) ==> +466.35

so -0.5442u / +2.53u (or $54.42 / $253 in more intuitively-meaningful terms)

just a little "side bet" program...which will drain the account slowly for a while (often many cards in a row...)...then, without warning, explode (especially after a slump which pulls the dog% into the 30's...as regression must eventually kick in at some point, and like Jesus...we "know not the hour nor the day which it comes"...but having our side-bets in place we're prepared for our savior)

if your basic "singles" card program can bear the increased volatility (which i deem it can, the way it's set up with reduced "to win 1u" risk amounts...AND auto-reducing $-defintions of betting amounts when suffering several consecutive losing cards)...you just might consider this optional side-bet program...

it's 100% up to you if you want to add in the "doubles" side-bet program as well...if you do, the total amount risked is designed to match the standard "to risk" way of betting...
*if 0 teams win...result is exactly the same as the "to risk" bettor
*if less than 40% of the card's dogs win...you come out a bit worse off
(cuz the payout(s) on your single winner(s) is naturally smaller the way we roll and your round-robin is small-negative)
*but anything over 40% of the card's dogs win...and you come out at varying degrees of "WAY better off"...with the near-sweep (say 5-1) or sweep (say 4-0) on largish cards likely to make up for MANY days of "coming out a bit worse"

anyhow, this is the side-bet program that i'm also playing in addition to the basic card of single-bets...

so, down the road... if we have a largish card and we near-sweep,

everybody will be , and side-bet players will be



but if that largish card full-sweeps, everybody will be

and side-bet players will be

______________________________


but the thread record will continue to be plain-vanilla "singles only"...as indicated by the unchanged nature of the day's card, as shown below

MOD15	mon	23-Jun	EOD14 values at top/D15 chnges & new totals at bottom
5,019.75	153.72	3707.77	5699.67	22	33	2,263.36	2,243.61	19.75
100.40	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	#days	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
pit	141	71.21	100.40	U
bos	135	74.37	100.40	U
∆	137.9	145.58	200.80	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	153.1	3853.35	5900.47	22	33	2,263.36	2,243.61	19.75
172	c.prv	22-Jun	14	c.lnq	5,000.00	5019.75	B=	5019.75
173	c.ths	23-Jun	15	158	50.00	100.4	t =	100.4

[Sixla]

Padres +156? And Bos down to +130

[fitguy67]

Sixer...thanks for the headsup on SDG...will definitely sneak them in as a SU play#3 (and even try to parlay pit in-play and bos with 'em)...

once i'm locked in on a play, i'll keep it...consider bos-price dropping like that as "confirmation" of the play's becoming more likely to hit...like you buy a house at 347k...and it gets more expensive to say 365k within a few months...makes it seem "wiser"

actually i think all that line-movement stuff is crap...depends on your being able to distinguish between smart and stupid money--which you never can do...still, once you're in a play, mumbo-jumbo like this can help you rationalize whatever you got...

one thing's for sure...if you ever get scared and buy out of a play cuz some line-movement pattern scared you off...it becomes the Murphy's Law lock of the century...the universe knows you had it...then dumped it for a small loss...will torture you with the

(and if you keep the bastid'...different result on the field, but same feeling for you...they'll lose just like u were scared of...that's why i try to never second-guess a play once it's on...don't give Murphy's Law anything extra to work with to piss you off)

[fitguy67]

update: added SDG at +156 as a single for my own account...but couldn't back-parlay it with pit who is, bless their heart, taking care of business for us...and i won't parlay it with bos who's got too expensive (even for the parlay program, we want everything at +135 minimum, as it helps to keep the "fleet average" strongly above the +150 level that corresponds to the long-term 40% win rate for dogs)

[fitguy67]

prv (to d14): 22-33, +0.1975u
yest (d15): 1-1, +0.2603u
ttd(to d15): 23-34, +0.4578u

EOD15	mon	23-Jun	EOD14 values at top/D15 chnges & new totals at bottom
5,019.75	153.72	3707.77	5699.67	22	33	2,263.36	2,243.61	19.75
100.40	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	#days	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
pit	141	71.21	100.40	W		100.40		100.40
bos	135	74.37	100.40	L			74.37	-74.37
∆	137.9	145.58	200.80	1	1	100.40	74.37	26.03
Σ	153.1	3853.35	5900.47	23	34	2,363.76	2,317.98	45.78
172	c.prv	22-Jun	14	c.lnq	5,000.00	5019.75	B=	5045.78
173	c.ths	23-Jun	15	158	50.00	100.4	t =	100.92

[fitguy67]

today (T, jun24) = day#16's plays: 3 pack

as always, each play is: Action (not listed), to WIN (not risk) 2% of last bank

skdld	away	(abc)	1000	nsst= near skdld starting time
st. time	HOME	(ABC)	price	price		booking
(edt)	team	opponent	quoted	actual	book	time	status
2010	KAN	lad	142
2205	min	LAA	164
2215	sdg	SFO	141

[fitguy67]

first 15 days: 23-34, +0.4578u

day#16: 1-2, -0.3169u

ttd (first 16 days): 23 - 34, +0.1409u

EOD16	tue	24-Jun	EOD15 values at top/D16 chnges & new totals at bottom
5,045.78	153.13	3853.35	5900.47	23	34	2,363.76	2,317.98	45.78
100.92	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	#days	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
KAN	142	71.07	100.92	L			71.07	-71.07
min	164	61.54	100.92	L			61.54	-61.54
sdg	141	71.57	100.92	W		100.92		100.92
∆	148.3	204.18	302.76	1	2	100.92	132.61	-31.69
Σ	152.9	4057.53	6203.23	24	36	2,464.68	2,450.59	14.09
173	c.prv	23-Jun	15	c.lnq	5,000.00	5045.78	B=	5014.09
174	c.ths	24-Jun	16	158	50.00	100.92	t =	100.28

[fitguy67]

day#17's "official" card finalized-->5-pack (with one rare HD)

notes
*new all-in-one "shopping friendly" format with bold-faced starting-times

*altho numerical average of 5 prices is exactly 151 (and it would stay that way if we used "fixed risk" betting )...note today's actual, calculated, avg price is a bit lower (as it always will be using the "fixed target" method of this thread), here 149.7 = 100* (501.40/334.91)

*note that the amount actually risked is less than the targeted amount (as it always will be, given our "fixed target" betting with an "all dog" card)...today's targeted amount is 5.014u but our "shopping cart" comes out to just 3.3491u we're actually risking

*the "saving" over what a "fixed risk" or standard-american bettor would risk is 1.6649
and COULD (entirely optional) be used to finance a full slate of low-risk/hi-payout 2-team parlays called a "round robin"...with 5 teams this means 10 separate 2-teamers, each risking 1/10 of the 1.6649u...which in effect would bring the "price tag" for the whole card back up to the standard-american price of 5.014u

*i've been putting on a round-robin like this for the last 8 days...and have yet to really "nail one"...have won exactly 2 games (hitting just one of the +520-ish parlays) 6 times, 3 games (hitting 3 parlays) just once...and won just one game (shutting me out in the parlay department) one time...haven't yet nailed one by winning 4 of the day's games (popping the bubbles on 6 parlays)...there definitely will be 4-, 5-, even more-dog nights"...and they will be extra wonderful for me...just haven't hit one yet in the ridiculously-low sample size of just 8 days of doing this so far

so i'll persist: people ridicule the concept of being "due"...but anything that has a long-term average or distribution...maintains it by alternating periods of under-performing/over-performing it...any sustained period on one side of the balance implies an eventual "regression" to the longer-term situation by switching to the other side of it...the more extreme we are on either side of the over-/under- balance...the more "due" we are for a switch...but, like Jesus...we know not the hour nor the day which it comes...

so, come on "regression"!...7 of the last 8 days have been days of "under-performing" the long-term average of 40% winners...and, over time, the # of W-rich and L-rich days will roughly balance in the same way that, over time...the average %royal-ranked (TJQKA) cards selected from a random small-sized set of playing cards (say any number of cards chosen daily from 2 to 8, averaging about 4...just like our MLB-plays) would fall short of 38.46% (=5/13) about the same number of times that it exceeds that balance point...or, if K.Durant averages 31 pts a game and he's gone the last 7 of 8 games below that ...you expect him to statistically "regress to the mean" at some point...which is "get hot" in sport-speak...this is the foundation of all SABRmetrics...finding' players/teams who've been winning/losing recently because they've been "over/under" performing well-established long-term figures...an unsustainable situation (translation...they are, in essence "due" for a corrective/regressive set of results)

MOD17	wed	25-Jun	EOD16 values at top/D17 chnges & new totals at bottom
5,014.09	152.88	4057.53	6203.23	24	36	2,464.68	2,450.59	14.09
100.28	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
pit	146	68.68	100.28		1210
chw	148	67.76	100.28		1905
TEX	139	72.14	100.28		2005
min	180	55.71	100.28		2205
bos	142	70.62	100.28		2210
∆	149.7	334.91	501.40	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	152.6	4392.44	6704.63	24	36	2,464.68	2,450.59	14.09
174	c.prv	24-Jun	16	c.lnq	5,000.00	5014.09	B=	5014.09
175	c.ths	25-Jun	17	158	50.00	100.28	t =	100.28

[fitguy67]

F16D: 24-36, +0.1409u

D17: 1 - 4, -1.6401u

TTD: 25 - 40, -1.4992u

note: not bad at all for the 38.46% hit rate "enjoyed" so far, low even for dogs...2nd time (in the 17 days total) that we've actually ended a day in the red...

EOD17	tue	25-Jun	EOD16 values at top/D17 chnges & new totals at bottom
5,014.09	152.88	4057.53	6203.23	24	36	2,464.68	2,450.59	14.09
100.28	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
pit	146	68.68	100.28	L	1210		68.68	-68.68
chw	148	67.76	100.28	L	1905		67.76	-67.76
TEX	139	72.14	100.28	L	2005		72.14	-72.14
min	180	55.71	100.28	L	2205		55.71	-55.71
bos	142	70.62	100.28	W	2210	100.28		100.28
∆	149.7	334.91	501.40	1	4	100.28	264.29	-164.01
Σ	152.6	4392.44	6704.63	25	40	2,564.96	2,714.88	-149.92
174	c.prv	24-Jun	16	c.lnq	5,000.00	5014.09	B=	4850.08
175	c.ths	25-Jun	17	158	50.00	100.28	t =	97

[fitguy67]

Day 18: 5-Pack

MOD18	thu	26-Jun	EOD17 values at top/D18 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,850.08	152.64	4392.44	6704.63	25	40	2,564.96	2,714.88	-149.92
97.00	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
min	168	57.74	97.00	U	1535
mia	150	64.67	97.00	U	1905
nym	138	70.29	97.00	U	1905
chw	157	61.78	97.00	U	1907
col	184	52.72	97.00	U	2010
∆	157.9	307.2	485.00	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	153.0	4699.64	7189.63	25	40	2,564.96	2,714.88	-149.92
176	c.prv	25-Jun	17	c.lnq	5,000.00	4850.08	B=	4850.08
177	c.ths	26-Jun	18	159	50.00	97	t =	97

[fitguy67]

optional part of the program: 10 x 2-leg parlays
each at 1/10 of 1.778u = "savings" from playing "fixed target" vs. "fixed risk"(T-V =4.85 -3.072)

giving 10 parlays each risking 0.1778u to win ~1.0057u (at avg parlay odds of ~+566)

_____________

makes overall program more volatile by worsening things a bit on the many days less than 40% of the card's teams wins...

but on the days that we exceed that threshold...things get exponentially more wonderful with each additional win...

if i'm gonna play a slot machine...i like the hi-variance ones...you gotta wait longer/bear with more $-erosion while you wait...but the odd "big hit" makes it all worth it

[pacocn]

Fitt, great shopping you got some great lines, just
got back from Yosemite and now ready to start
making some $

[fitguy67]

paco...you and your wholistically-healthy lifestyle with all that "balance"...makin' the rest of us day-in-day-out "lifers with no life" feel bad by comparison...

next time you do something enviably well-balanced and outdoorsy like that...just say you got computer problems, ok...



just kiddin' pal...it IS important to take the saw out of the tree regularly to sharpen it...

MLB agenda for next few months..."to sea level and beyond"....

[pacocn]

Fit, ye olde Trojan virus is always somewhat believable, Don the hiking boots, and let's get ready for the long awaited ascent!

[fitguy67]

EOD18: 25-45, -4.5712u

first full-sweep of the thread (but of the undesirable kind)

officially in a slump now (have underperformed 40%hit-rate on 9 of the last 10 days)...

have a big 16-game slate tomorrow...4.5u is and easy deficit to pull out of

patience and discipline peeps...sport-investing is a curiosity-driven/character-building marathon...not a greed-driven sprint

"all dogs" is a good way...but a hi-variance way to go...

notice that our "to win" bet size, t, is auto-shrivelling in order to protect the account while in a slump...and won't start increasing again till we register a winning day

EOD18	thu	26-Jun	EOD17 values at top/D18 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,850.08	152.64	4392.44	6704.63	25	40	2,564.96	2,714.88	-149.92
97.00	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
min	168	57.74	97.00	L	1535		57.74	-57.74
mia	150	64.67	97.00	L	1905		64.67	-64.67
nym	138	70.29	97.00	L	1905		70.29	-70.29
chw	157	61.78	97.00	L	1907		61.78	-61.78
col	184	52.72	97.00	L	2010		52.72	-52.72
∆	157.9	307.2	485.00	0	5	0.00	307.20	-307.20
Σ	153.0	4699.64	7189.63	25	45	2,564.96	3,022.08	-457.12
176	c.prv	25-Jun	17	c.lnq	5,000.00	4850.08	B=	4542.88
177	c.ths	26-Jun	18	159	50.00	97	t =	90.86

[fitguy67]

First Play Fri, Jun27 is an early one, 13:05 NewYorkTime

Will add more plays to finalize card later...

also notice the "twinit" has shrunk to 90.86% of its original value...and will start to increase again...when the long-awaited rally in dog win-rate kicks in and increases the bank

MOD19	fri	27-Jun	EOD18 values at top/D19 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,542.88	152.98	4699.64	7189.63	25	45	2,564.96	3,022.08	-457.12
90.86	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
tam	144	63.1	90.86	U	1305
∆	144.0	63.1	90.86	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	152.9	4762.74	7280.49	25	45	2,564.96	3,022.08	-457.12
177	c.prv	26-Jun	18	c.lnq	5,000.00	4542.88	B=	4542.88
178	c.ths	27-Jun	19	159	50.00	90.86	t =	90.86

[fitguy67]

ok...card complete: 5-dogs (2 of them @ HomeTeams)

remember: patience, perseverence, and good-ole' curiosity will get us thru this rough patch (of many more remaining in the season)...we've set things up so that we have plenty of unit-bullets left to fire...and when the dog win-rate pushes back north of 40% we'll go positive units rather quickly

MOD19	fri	27-Jun	EOD18 values at top/D19 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,542.88	152.98	4699.64	7189.63	25	45	2,564.96	3,022.08	-457.12
90.86	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
tam	138	65.84	90.86	U	1305
chw	157	57.87	90.86	U	1907
MIA	143	63.54	90.86	U	1910
HOU	150	60.57	90.86	U	2010
col	183	49.65	90.86	U	2010
∆	152.7	297.47	454.30	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	153.0	4997.11	7643.93	25	45	2,564.96	3,022.08	-457.12
177	c.prv	26-Jun	18	c.lnq	5,000.00	4542.88	B=	4542.88
178	c.ths	27-Jun	19	159	50.00	90.86	t =	90.86

[fitguy67]

Guyz...i originally posted 6 plays about 4 hours ago...WAY too early...broke my developing rule of thumb that 6am "day of" is earliest to lock everything in...because we need to give prices a good shot of overnight hours to be banged into shape by $ (both smart and stupid)...too close to market open is not good

mistake i made was last night naming that post incorrectly...i should have called that table "tentative", not complete cuz it was too early...anyhow, long story short, no big deal, 1 play dropped (nym originally posted at +135)...if anybody did lock it in, you can either hedge out a tiny profit/loss (as price is now 7c stronger at +128...if u use dimey's nickel lines now u can score 2c)...or can keep it...as you choose...

just nobody go ballistic...i just removed 1 play that anyone is free to keep or trade out of with no penalty...won't happen again...

so it's a 5-pack today featuring 2 home dogs

if you're following along with the round-robin idea, like i am...just take the difference between the targeted amount and the amount you actually risked...and divide that by 10 to determine the risk on each of the 10 2-team parlays...otherwise that's it for the day...5 straights as the thread-record tracks as a benchmark (and 10 optional little parlays...each just 0.157u...if you're playing them...as i've explained in many posts above)

goood luck to all

[pacocn]

Fit, bol today, lets get those doogies barking

[fitguy67]

first day in forever that the first dog of the day hit (or "bit") for us

Thanks Tampa!

now if someone could just tell oakland to take a day off and tank one (those guys are my favorite "energizer bunny" team...and i just hate when my system rules tells me to go against them...which it does almost every day)

[fitguy67]

oakland being oakland i understand...

but do the fooking white sox have to TRY to give me a heart attack too?!!

thank heavens the meltdown was partial...and killed only those greedy enough to play the -1.5 RL on the dog

[fitguy67]

3-2, a good night...could have VERY easily (had MIA not given the game back) been a very good night...and with a little luck (a tall order with Colorado, given their norm of just showing up to collect a paycheck...i'm thinking of lifetym banning these overpaid turds from all bets for/against...other shit teams at least give the impression they're TRYing to win, but the Rockies play with all the intensity of post-office employees)...anyhow, not inconceivable at all to have gone 5-0 yesterday...too bad we can't bet on horseshoes!

faak...would have been a good night to near-sweep or sweep, too...as i'd mistakenly put all 10 of my 2-leggers in at double stakes...

back to the curiosity-/not greed-driven grind...

patience, discipline and sensible bet-sizing will get us thru the season

[fitguy67]

eod19	fri	27-Jun	eod18 values at top/d19 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,542.88	152.98	4699.64	7189.63	25	45	2,564.96	3,022.08	-457.12
90.86	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
tam	138	65.84	90.86	W	1305	90.86		90.86
chw	157	57.87	90.86	W	1907	90.86		90.86
MIA	143	63.54	90.86	L	1910		63.54	-63.54
HOU	150	60.57	90.86	W	2010	90.86		90.86
col	183	49.65	90.86	L	2010		49.65	-49.65
∆	152.7	297.47	454.30	3	2	272.58	113.19	159.39
Σ	153.0	4997.11	7643.93	28	47	2,837.54	3,135.27	-297.73
177	c.prv	26-Jun	18	c.lnq	5,000.00	4542.88	B=	4702.27
178	c.ths	27-Jun	19	159	50.00	90.86	t =	94.05

all the key numbers bold-faced

first week thread record went up 8u...over next 10 days, lost 12.5u to -4.5u...

yesterday the first clearly-winning day in a while, cutting the small deficit to just 3u