MLB 2014 BigDogs Thread "New Light Version"

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  • fitguy67
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-13-11
    • 5082

    #71
    OP's shopping report,
    note i managed to beat the fdm-benchmark prices on 6 of the 7 plays, netting a "shopping score" of about +35 payout points or an average of about +5 per play

    the better prices you can get, day-in/day-out...will make a huge difference over the course of the hundreds of plays that make up the rest of the season


    skdld away (abc) nsst= near skdld starting time
    st. time HOME (ABC) price price booking
    (edt) team opponent quoted actual book time status
    1308
    min DET 147
    143 grk 655 U
    1410 CHW kan 135 145 her 700 U
    1410 HOU tam 156 161 pin 705 U
    1605 col SFO 182 183 her 710 U
    1605 nyy OAK 163 166 her 715 U
    1610 tex SEA 168
    177 her 720 U
    1610 arz LAD 135 138 pin 725 U
    Comment
    • alamo
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-21-09
      • 7131

      #72
      Good luck with the plays Fit.
      Comment
      • fitguy67
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-13-11
        • 5082

        #73
        take this play as an example

        HOU +156 68.97 107.59
        because i got it for 5 points better at +161

        for me I only need to risk $66.83 to win the same $107.59

        meaning if this play loses, my account benefits by a surprisingly-large $2.14, which is a more than 3%-discount off the loss...and this discount applies to the 60% of all losing plays...meaning it averages out to about 1.8% over each and every play...that was for 5 ticks...meaning the long-term benefit of a single point is a little over a third of a percentage point...doesn't sound like much, does it...

        but a capper who can net 3% yield in the long run...is like a 0.300 hitter in baseball...a sign of rare excellence...
        so if you can just sharpen your shopping skills to getting just 3 tics better, it'll kick in more than 1% toward your performance...

        these figures are % of total action...over a baseball season, 1% of 90k risked ( $100 x 5 plays a day for six months) is $900 = 9u

        so arranging things (mostly getting a few more books) so you can comparison shop and "shave off" a few ticks like this on average...can benefit you by hundreds of $...and tens of units over the course of a season
        Comment
        • fitguy67
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-13-11
          • 5082

          #74
          Originally posted by alamo
          Good luck with the plays Fit.



          note the new status indicator in top left

          SOD7 (Start Of Day7...before any plays even submitted...clean slate)
          DIP7 (Day7 In Progress...some action appears...but slate not fully graded)
          EOD7 (EndOfDay7...full slate of "all plays since previous EOD-update<ie. EOD6>" appear, with all plays graded)

          DIP7
          sun 15-Jun prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
          5,379.35 153.80 1142.8 1757.66 9 8 922.63 543.28 379.35
          107.59 p V T W/L days A S N=A-S
          min
          147 73.19 107.59 U since prv
          CHW 135 79.7 107.59 U 1
          HOU 156 68.97 107.59 U no action
          col 182 59.12 107.59 U 0
          nyy
          163 66.01 107.59 U
          on calendar
          tex 168 64.04 107.59 U 7
          arz 135 79.7 107.59 U of business
          7
          153.5 490.73 753.13 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
          Σ 153.7 1633.53 2510.79 9
          8 922.63 543.28 379.35
          c.prv
          164 14-Jun 6 c.lnq 5,000.00 5379.35 B=
          5379.35
          c.ths 165 15-Jun 7 158 50.00 107.59 t = 107.59
          Comment
          • fitguy67
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-13-11
            • 5082

            #75
            NTS (Note(s) to Self):

            *the most important of these reports by far are the EODx's...
            and it's ok to let days pass between EODx reports...eg EOD6 done and the figures all show up at what is now called SOD7 or DIP7...
            if life gets busy...or i were to simple decide to switch to weekly reporting...i could just keep adding plays to the bottom of the action section <note to self (henceforth, NTS)...add a date-specifying column to "action" section for when this happens>...all "previous" tallies across the top will remain unchanged...the additional action will simply account for more plays/days before the "changes" row getss locked in, allowing the DIP I'm working on to be converted into an EODxx, with the "x" registered appropriate to the number of days of action since last EOD

            thus could easily have EOD5, EOD6, EOD7, EOD11, EOD18,...where the EODx reports on cards covering the action of 1, 1, 4, and 7 calendar days respectively

            *find a better way to incorporate the "business days" = "days with plays" = "number of slates" idea...days on the calendar are generally the far more important concept, but, just as with ineffective plays (anything submitted but ultimately NOT graded as a W or L)...the information for inactive/ineffective days should similarly be retained somewhere as a "side tally", even tho' it's not important enough to clutter up the concise EODx reporting format

            *and i still gotta figure out that damn "snipping"/"cropping" horseshit
            Comment
            • fitguy67
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-13-11
              • 5082

              #76
              Read'em and Weep...then look a little closer...and smile!

              1. the bad news: today (day#7) was 2-5, -1.3673u

              2. more bad news: we ended the first week with a dreadful 11-13 record...that's a cringe-worthy 45.83%...

              3. but there's a wee bit of good news, too: we ended the week +2.4262u...(which is a very nice +15% of the total 16.3353 units risked so far)

              moral of the story: it's very possible...i depend on it, in fact...to have a losing W-L record and be a solid $-winner...
              that's the power of an all-dog fleet of plays

              EOD7
              sun 15-Jun prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
              5,379.35 153.80 1142.8 1757.66 9 8 922.63 543.28 379.35
              107.59 +prices Ventured Targeted status #days A S N=A-S
              min
              147 73.19 107.59 L since prv 73.19 -73.19
              CHW 135 79.7 107.59 L 1 79.70 -79.70
              HOU 156 68.97 107.59 L no action 68.97 -68.97
              col 182 59.12 107.59 W 0 107.59 107.59
              nyy 163 66.01 107.59 L on calendar 66.01 -66.01
              tex 168 64.04 107.59 L 7 64.04 -64.04
              arz 135 79.7 107.59 W of business 107.59 107.59
              7
              153.5 490.73 753.13 2 5 215.18 351.91 -136.73
              Σ 153.7 1633.53 2510.79 11
              13 1,137.81 895.19 242.62
              164 c.prv
              14-Jun 6 c.lnq 5,000.00 5379.35 B=
              5242.62
              165 c.ths 15-Jun 7 158 50.00 107.59 t = 104.85
              Cliff's Notes
              everything is based on a generic startingB= I = 5000 and fixed $100 units, with each new day's plays reset to win exactly one "twinit" or t =2% of the latest B = I + N
              Comment
              • fitguy67
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 03-13-11
                • 5082

                #77
                doing an experiment to see if one lil' post is sufficient to "bump" this back up to first page...my guess is no...because of views/day etc criterion no-doubt built into the webware...also may auto-discount posts by OP to bump his own thread into the exalted limelight of page 1, lol
                Comment
                • Sixla
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-16-10
                  • 1008

                  #78
                  What plays we lookin at today Fit?
                  Comment
                  • fitguy67
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 03-13-11
                    • 5082

                    #79
                    no games till 19-ish...let the prices "breathe" till about 18...at which time anything over +135 at dimey is in play

                    (i've decided to, for myself, not turn my nose up at any opportunities to lock in something at/over the 200 mark...so far, 0-1 on these very-rare plays...but it will simplify the "rule of thumb" greatly to only have one threshold value, 135--a lower boundary--to consider...instead of two)...

                    i want any/everybody not hurt by this to mentally support Iran for me...I picked 'em up, effectively @ -0.5hc, early in the 2nd half at scoreless-tie, at +622

                    Iran (live, 0-0 at HT) -0.5, +622..........-0.5u / +3.11u

                    i covered my ass with a second bet as well

                    Iran/Nigeria, FT-Draw, +105...........-0.4762u / + 0.5

                    ________________

                    effectively, this works out to an Iran +0 (aka. "pk", aka. "dnb"...soccer betting is so frigging complicated) @ +269.80............ -0.9762u / +2.6338u

                    only thing that can hurt me (rather badly...almost a full unit) is a Nigeria win...
                    a draw is a push...
                    but if Iran can score late and "shock the world"...i'll be +2.6 units
                    Comment
                    • fitguy67
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 03-13-11
                      • 5082

                      #80
                      well i got my underwear back...ended a draw...flat dollars (but some small laundery-related expenses to factor in)...

                      all in all...i HATE betting on soccer
                      Comment
                      • fitguy67
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-13-11
                        • 5082

                        #81
                        Ok, today's full TTD record and today's play-sheet all rolled into one

                        note: all the important shit is bold-faced

                        all $ figures are appropriate to an ac setup with a starting bank 5000...pro-rate as appropriate

                        if you're actually following along closely, note how all seven numbers across the top (in columns 3 thru 9) are filled with exactly the same numbers that showed up at the bottom of the previously-posted table...
                        end of day#7 = start of day#8

                        ...and away we go


                        DIP8
                        mon 16-Jun prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
                        5,242.62 153.70 1633.53 2510.79 11 13 1,137.81 895.19 242.62
                        104.85 +prices Ventured Targeted status #days A S N=A-S
                        min
                        162 64.72 104.85 U since prv
                        nym 139 75.43 104.85 U 1
                        tex 150 69.9 104.85 U no action
                        col 171 61.32 104.85 U 0
                        on calendar
                        8
                        of business
                        8
                        154.5 271.37 419.40 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
                        Σ 153.8 1904.9 2930.19 11
                        13 1,137.81 895.19 242.62
                        165 c.prv
                        15-Jun 7 c.lnq 5,000.00 5242.62 B=
                        5242.62
                        166 c.ths 16-Jun 8 158 50.00 104.85 t = 104.85
                        Comment
                        • fitguy67
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 03-13-11
                          • 5082

                          #82
                          complete shopping report of OP's "fills"...

                          NTS (note(s) to self): damn i gotta get fdm (aka. 5d) funded again! this is the first day where i had to really pay for its not being up and running

                          *overall i was only able to shave two tics off of the whole "cart"'s price of 622...i paid 620

                          *i'm thinking of employing a simple new shopping "rule of thumb" to decide whether to bite or not if there's still a lot of time before game starts/mkt-closes...
                          try to exceed the reference "snapshot" price as usual of course, but if it looks like that "boat" may not come around again anytime soon...then, it's ok to bite at something lower as long as
                          a) it meets/exceeds +135 of course, AND
                          b) it at least meets/exceeds the day's opening price

                          eg. col opened at +161, was snapshotted at +171 about 1800...but it was clear that it wasn't going to hit this level again any time soon (at books i have current access to...why not having fdm--the "snapshotting" book--is such a drag)...anyhow, i wanted to lock in the play...best price available at 1820 was +166 at heritage...giving me two choices...either hit it now (most convenient)...or, since the game doesn't start till 2210, i could simply check back later and "keep trying" to meet/beat the official +171...i chose door #1, locked it in at +166 because it was clearly "good enough"...beating both +135 minimum and the day opener of +166 (i'll call this the "2 outa 3 ain't bad" rule)



                          skdld away (abc) nsst= near skdld starting time
                          st. time HOME (ABC) price price booking
                          (edt) team opponent quoted actual book time status
                          1910
                          min BOS 162
                          159 her 1815 U
                          2010 nym STL 139 140 sia 1817 U
                          2205 tex OAK 150 155 sia 1819 U
                          2210 col LAD 171 166 her 1821 U
                          Comment
                          • fitguy67
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 03-13-11
                            • 5082

                            #83
                            only other "possible" (unofficial as far as thread-record goes) addition is kan (@ DET)...they opened nicely at +141...and have since shortened to their current +129ish price...not quite unloved-enough...

                            if we start biting at things below +135, it gets harder to maintain a fleet average over the crucial +150 figure (after 24 plays our average price is about +154)...you might want to take this play as part of another betting project (including the old "freestyle" one we all use too much), perhaps make one for teams that started out unloved (+135 min)...but found enough love later in the day to close stronger...but it is not takeable as a play as part of this project that tries to buy things that close (not open) in the stated range
                            Comment
                            • fitguy67
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-13-11
                              • 5082

                              #84
                              kan at +131...has 8 more minutes to weaken another 4 points at dimey

                              nope...4 official plays for tonight it is...unless something interesting happens closer to the starts of the 2140 mil/ARZ game (unlikely) and the 2210 sdg/SEA game (also unlikely)

                              c u guyz tomoro
                              Comment
                              • Sixla
                                SBR MVP
                                • 08-16-10
                                • 1008

                                #85
                                Locked and loaded!
                                Comment
                                • fitguy67
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 03-13-11
                                  • 5082

                                  #86
                                  all-in-one
                                  early-bird
                                  look back = TTD (first 8 days: 12-16, +1.46u)

                                  & look ahead = snapshot of 5 official plays for today (with mean price +150.5+153.3 over all 33 playsTD)

                                  may not check back in till tomorrow...got the m.o for this project pretty well sorted now...
                                  just a case of walking thru most of the rest of the season with it
                                  (may/may not "sit out" the last few weeks of the season)

                                  DIP9
                                  tue 17-Jun prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
                                  5,146.00 153.82 1904.9 2930.19 12 16 1,242.66 1,096.66 146.00
                                  102.92 +prices Ventured Targeted status #days A S N=A-S
                                  tor
                                  153
                                  67.27 102.92 U since prv
                                  kan 138
                                  74.58 102.92 U 1
                                  phi 158
                                  65.14 102.92 U no action
                                  nym 149
                                  69.07 102.92 U 0
                                  col 156
                                  65.97 102.92 U on calendar
                                  9
                                  of business
                                  9
                                  150.5
                                  342.03 514.60 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
                                  Σ 153.3 2246.93 3444.79 12
                                  16 1,242.66 1,096.66 146
                                  166 c.prv
                                  16-Jun 8 c.lnq 5,000.00 5146 B=
                                  5146
                                  167 c.ths 17-Jun 9 158 50.00 102.92 t = 102.92
                                  Comment
                                  • pacocn
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 07-05-10
                                    • 12934

                                    #87
                                    Fit, nice looking card!!!! Bol
                                    Comment
                                    • fitguy67
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-13-11
                                      • 5082

                                      #88
                                      thanks...i spent minutes "capping it"...and i finally got the recording/reporting stuff "in a box" as well...so the "word blizzards" (gotta trademark that term...probably end up in a legal battle with the "dairy queen" corporation over it...so hold off on that, for now) should lessen in frequency and intensity
                                      Comment
                                      • fitguy67
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 03-13-11
                                        • 5082

                                        #89
                                        still plenty of time before 1905--> games get underway...and another 2 plays clearly fall into our range...
                                        hou + 141
                                        min + 155

                                        makes 7 plays in total for my actual account, 2 latest shown at the bottom

                                        skdld away (abc) 1010 nsst= near skdld starting time
                                        st. time HOME (ABC) price price booking
                                        (edt) team opponent quoted actual book time status
                                        1905
                                        tor NYY 153 157 her ~1030 U
                                        1908 kan DET 138 145 sia ~1030 U
                                        1910 phi ATL 158 160 her ~1030 U
                                        2015 nym STL 149 156 grk ~1030 U
                                        2210 col LAD 156 159 her ~1030 U
                                        1905 hou WAS 141 145 sia 1815 U
                                        1910 min BOS 155 153 her 1830 U
                                        Comment
                                        • fitguy67
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 03-13-11
                                          • 5082

                                          #90
                                          yesterday: 2-3, +0.0353u
                                          TTD (covering 9 days): 14-19, +1.4953u, avg price over all 33 plays = +153.3



                                          EOD9 tue 17-Jun prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
                                          5,146.00 153.82 1904.9 2930.19 12 16 1,242.66 1,096.66 146.00
                                          102.92 +prices Ventured Targeted status #days A S N=A-S
                                          tor
                                          153 67.27 102.92 L since prv 67.27 -67.27
                                          kan 138 74.58 102.92 W 1 102.92 102.92
                                          phi 158 65.14 102.92 W no action 102.92 102.92
                                          nym 149 69.07 102.92 L 0 69.07 -69.07
                                          col 156 65.97 102.92 L on calendar 65.97 -65.97
                                          9
                                          of business
                                          9
                                          150.5 342.03 514.60 2
                                          3
                                          205.84 202.31 3.53
                                          Σ 153.3 2246.93 3444.79 14
                                          19 1,448.50 1,298.97 149.53
                                          166 c.prv 16-Jun 8 c.lnq 5,000.00 5146 B= 5149.53
                                          167 c.ths 17-Jun 9 158 50.00 102.92 t = 102.99
                                          Comment
                                          • fitguy67
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 03-13-11
                                            • 5082

                                            #91
                                            day#10, Wed, Jun18
                                            6 plays hot off the press

                                            DIP10 wed 18-Jun prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
                                            5,149.53 153.31 2246.93 3444.79 14 19 1,448.50 1,298.97 149.53
                                            102.99 +prices Ventured Targeted status #days Add'ns Subtrac'ns N=A-S
                                            phi
                                            147 70.01 102.92 since prv
                                            min 157 65.55 102.92 1
                                            nym 137 75.12 102.92 no action
                                            tex 160 64.33 102.92 0
                                            hou 147 70.01 102.92 on calendar
                                            col 190 54.17 102.92 10
                                            of business
                                            10
                                            154.7 399.19 617.52 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
                                            Σ 153.5 2646.12 4062.31 14 19 1,448.50 1,298.97 149.53
                                            167 c.prv 17-Jun 9 c.lnq 5,000.00 5146 B= 5149.53
                                            168 c.ths 18-Jun 10 158 50.00 102.92 t = 102.99
                                            2246.93 3444.79 14 19 1,448.50 1,298.97 149.53
                                            Comment
                                            • alamo
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 02-21-09
                                              • 7131

                                              #92
                                              Fit, Just curious as to why :-
                                              hou WAS +141
                                              min BOS +155

                                              didnt make the grade yesterday as both appeared to be comfortably inside the +135 buffer.
                                              Comment
                                              • fitguy67
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 03-13-11
                                                • 5082

                                                #93
                                                see and compare post #86 at 10am-ish, declaring the five official plays for the day
                                                with #89 at 18:40ish declaring a few additional plays for my "actual" (not thread's) account...

                                                on post #89, note times on far-right column...i snapshotted the prices and and finalized the official plays (the ones that count for the thread") for the day on a "one and done" basis, as i've done every day since day#1

                                                for the purposes of this thread i decided long ago (in long word blizzards on page 1 or even on the previous thread)..to base official version of day's plays (ie. the ones that'll be included in the "thread record" for the sole purpose of providing a benchmark) on a "one and done" basis on the first look at a snapshot of the prices...

                                                yes, yesterday i personally went 2-5, not 2-3...and on other days i've gone 2-0 on unofficial plays i've entered after the original posting and not counted it...

                                                i had to draw the line somewhere to keep my sanity...just decided to prepare an official play list once early in the day before day's first pitch...with everything after that--win or lose--not to appear on the thread record

                                                overall, i'm doing quite a lot better than the thread record cuz the prices i get are generally much better than the official 5d prices i record...but i just stick to the original plays AND the original prices...no matter what i actually get...same for plays taken later (they either hurt or help me...even with yesterday's kick in the ass, about even on W-L basis, but nicely up $-wise)...but nothing apart from the original play-list and their prices "count" for the thread record)

                                                "official" really doesn't mean a damn thing...apart from establishing some sort of benchmard to compare against...someone like me (and you) who really follows the intention of this system--to get everything that CLOSES at 5d in the range...will end up with more plays than the "official" thread-record indicates, and thus do better some days/worse others...by taking extra plays within the logic of the method...it all balances out...

                                                please read some of my earlier word blizzards (early in this thread) on just this issue...and how i've decided to take something arbitrary like a once-a-day snapshot just to have something simple (cuz only involves checking prices and shopping all at once, once a day)...and will make a half-assed enough "benchmark" against which anyone may check their own ACTUAL records...the expression i kept mentioning earlier in this (or in the thread that preceded it)...was that 'your actual mileage WILL (not may, WILL) vary"
                                                Comment
                                                • fitguy67
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 03-13-11
                                                  • 5082

                                                  #94
                                                  that HOU loss waz a painful card-draw...looked so much like a TJQKA...then a goddam 9 came up...even worse with MIN earlier in the day...scoreless draw...and they score in the top of the 10th...then give up 2 in the bottom...faaaaaakkkk!

                                                  the team i am learning to fukkin' hate with a passion is Colorado...it's like they love being raped every day...don't even put up any resistance...

                                                  i'm now experimenting with round robins of 2-leg parlays (typical odds about +525...so risking about t/5 on each is just about right)...meaning with the 6-game card tonight i got 15 parlays...set up so that with 3 wins i break even...anything over that goes increasingly wonderful...won 2 of first four...then HOU folded like a cheap tent (baseball and tennis are the worst sports for "breakin' your heart" like that...cuz no clock...execution is required to "close out" the deal)

                                                  now i'm stuck with depending on a team that doesn't even seem to TRY to win...hate the fukkin' Rox...

                                                  3-6 woulda been fine and dandy...but with the parlay side-plays looks like i'll drop another 2 units on my actual account...cuz it's ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE THAT THE ROCKIES CAN OVERCOME AN EARLY 3-RUN DEFICIT...NOT SURE, BUT I DON'T THINK SUCH A THING HAS EVER BEEN DONE BEFORE (feeble attempt to invoke the "reverse jinx"...when the team isn't even trying to win...just rolling over/begging for vaseline)
                                                  Comment
                                                  • fitguy67
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 03-13-11
                                                    • 5082

                                                    #95
                                                    i'm calling COL a loss...

                                                    so day#10 is done: 2-4, and only down 0.4822

                                                    overall: 16-23, and still up 1.02u (with only 41% winnaz...the power of dog-prices)

                                                    EOD10
                                                    wed 18-Jun prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
                                                    5,149.53 153.31 2246.93 3444.79 14 19 1,448.50 1,298.97 149.53
                                                    102.99 +prices Ventured Targeted status #days Add'ns Subtrac'ns N=A-S
                                                    phi
                                                    147 70.01 102.92 W
                                                    since prv 102.92 102.92
                                                    min 157 65.55 102.92 L 1 65.55 -65.55
                                                    nym 137 75.12 102.92 W no action 102.92 102.92
                                                    tex 160 64.33 102.92 L 0 64.33 -64.33
                                                    hou 147 70.01 102.92 L on calendar 70.01 -70.01
                                                    col 190 54.17 102.92 L 10 54.17 -54.17
                                                    of business
                                                    10
                                                    154.7 399.19 617.52 2
                                                    4 205.84 254.06 -48.22
                                                    Σ 153.5 2646.12 4062.31 16
                                                    23 1,654.34 1,553.03 101.31
                                                    167 c.prv 17-Jun 9 c.lnq 5,000.00 5146 B= 5101.31
                                                    168 c.ths 18-Jun 10 158 50.00 102.92 t = 102.03
                                                    gnyt ladies & germs...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • alamo
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-21-09
                                                      • 7131

                                                      #96
                                                      Thanks for answering FitG. Love the thread.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fitguy67
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-13-11
                                                        • 5082

                                                        #97
                                                        skdld away (abc) 1010 nsst= near skdld starting time
                                                        st. time HOME (ABC) price price booking
                                                        (edt) team opponent quoted actual book time status
                                                        1308 kan 145 U
                                                        1910 hou 142 U
                                                        2015 phi 160 U
                                                        2205 bos 148 U
                                                        today's plays and prices for official thread-recording purposes
                                                        5dimes prices as of a minute ago
                                                        Comment
                                                        • fitguy67
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 03-13-11
                                                          • 5082

                                                          #98
                                                          Middle of Day 11 Report...now at critical 40% hit-rate (aka +150 break-even odds)

                                                          yield = +1% (30bucks netted vs. the 3000 risked)...
                                                          why is the benchmark ac up a little...
                                                          because the actual odds we've got are better than the +150 needed to break even
                                                          our +153 average to date has break-even odds of 39.53% (=1/2.53...decimal format needed to calculate implied odds)
                                                          how much better...hmmm (40/39.53)-1 ~ 1% better

                                                          now if you've been getting a FEW ticks better on average on each and every play, things can be MUCH better ...i showed in an earlier post that every single tick improves your yield by ~0.33%...that means if you've been getting 3 ticks better price on each play your yield will be double this

                                                          only a week in...1% of volume is only 30 bucks for the u=$100 players...but after a few months we're talking hundreds of dollars...

                                                          i guarantee you that if you took all these plays at a shit 20c-line book like wager-web you'll be down quite a bit...

                                                          it's not all about the winning and losing...it's the prices you get...cuz it greatly reduces the size of the losses incurred while pursuing the wins...(ask any successful poker player the importance of containing losses...it's also behind my betting "to Win" protocol=using higher payouts to lower the risk, rather than raise the target,...
                                                          bet-size will auto-increase on heaters...the trick for long-term success is to dampen the down moves during the L-rich periods...lowering the bet-size def'n, B/50 helps...but the key is NOT dropping full units every time the "expected" occurs...)

                                                          if anuyone's been playing these in the standard American hybrid (dogs to risk/faves to win) manner...let me know how you're doing right now with the expected 40% hit-rate...Me, i've always hated full-unit losses on plays that the price i paid tells me to not expect to win, but i'd like to compare notes on this.

                                                          MOD11 Thu 19-Jun prev. values at top of table/changes & new totals at bottom
                                                          5,101.31 153.52 2646.12 4062.31 16
                                                          23 1,654.34 1,553.03 101.31
                                                          102.03 +prices Ventured Targeted status #days Add'ns Subtrac'ns N=A-S
                                                          kan
                                                          145 70.37 102.03 L since prv 70.37 -70.37
                                                          hou 142 71.85 102.03 U 1
                                                          phi 160 63.77 102.03 U no action
                                                          bos 148 68.94 102.03 U 0
                                                          on calendar
                                                          11
                                                          of business
                                                          11
                                                          148.4 274.93 408.12 0
                                                          1 0.00 70.37 -70.37
                                                          Σ 153.0 2921.05 4470.43 16
                                                          24 1,654.34 1,623.40
                                                          30.94
                                                          168 c.prv 18-Jun 10 c.lnq 5,000.00 5101.31 B=
                                                          5030.94
                                                          169 c.ths 19-Jun 11 158 50.00 102.03 t = 100.62
                                                          Comment
                                                          • fitguy67
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 03-13-11
                                                            • 5082

                                                            #99
                                                            after first 11 days and 43 plays
                                                            of taking most (but not quite all--given the "one sweep a day" logistics of this project)

                                                            dogs now 39.53% (17-26 )
                                                            avg price (+153) now implies 39.53% needed to break even...
                                                            guess what..net change is zero as numbers predict...17-26, -0.0782u

                                                            so far, it's ridiculously early to know anything about "how the project's going"
                                                            just a few days, a few dozen plays...and one up-move/one down-move, each about 8u

                                                            the trick is to stay even-tempered and curiosity-driven
                                                            over the long haul: smart dogs shoppers come out ahead
                                                            for two reasons
                                                            1. right off the bat, they're buying things others want less...a natural price-depressant/value-magnifier (especially so when you factor in "the madness of crowds"...especially the greed-driven "don't wanna be left off the boat" crowd, including the name-brand chase systems with monstrous followings)
                                                            2. if, in addition, they form the habit of always getting what they get at the best price thru comparison-shopping across different books, each losing play "costs" less

                                                            so, we soldier on...still early in the war...only two campaigns (one winning--gained 8 towns, one losing--gave'm back)...
                                                            study after study says that for those brave/persistent/consistent/patient enough, this is a winning $-war

                                                            I'm "gung ho" and stubbornly-curious enough to keep fighting this out...
                                                            besides, being systematically contrarian on a daily basis is entertaining...
                                                            who doesn't like to "pull for the underdog" from time to time...i get to do it ALL the time
                                                            i subjectively "hope" AND objectively "expect" this to be entertainment i actually get paid for...
                                                            but even if it works out the other way...
                                                            it's way better than "sweating" out big favorites who are "supposed to win"...and the frustration when they don't...

                                                            dogs +curiosity + occasional surprises >> faves + anxiety + occasional disasters

                                                            SOD12
                                                            fri
                                                            20-Jun
                                                            EOD11 values at top of table/chgs & new totls below
                                                            5101.31 153.04 2921.05 4470.43 17 26 1,756.37 1,764.19 -7.82
                                                            102.03 +prices Ventured Targeted status #days Add'ns Subtrac'ns N=A-S
                                                            since prv
                                                            1
                                                            no action
                                                            0
                                                            on calendar
                                                            11
                                                            of business
                                                            11
                                                            0 0.00 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
                                                            Σ 153.0 2921.05 4470.43 17
                                                            26 1,756.37 1,764.19 -7.82
                                                            168 c.prv 18-Jun 10 c.lnq 5,000.00 5101.31 B= 4992.18
                                                            169 c.ths 19-Jun 11 158 50.00 102.03 t = 99.84
                                                            Comment
                                                            • fitguy67
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 03-13-11
                                                              • 5082

                                                              #100
                                                              today's finalized shopping cart: 4-pack, avg price +166

                                                              skdld away (abc) nsst= near skdld starting time 10:00am
                                                              st. time
                                                              HOME (ABC) price price booking
                                                              (edt) team opponent quoted actual book time status
                                                              1905
                                                              atl WAS 155 U
                                                              1910 hou TAM 183 U
                                                              2015 phi STL 151 U
                                                              2205 tex LAA 175 U
                                                              ยต 166.0
                                                              Comment
                                                              • pacocn
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 07-05-10
                                                                • 12934

                                                                #101
                                                                That's my kind of shopping Fit, btw it was Moe's b day yesterday,
                                                                please take a moment of silence for the actor that got his start on a
                                                                river boat on the Mississippi. Please give a false eye poke and bridge your
                                                                nose pointer finger first sometime today. bol on the plays!!!!!!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • fitguy67
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 03-13-11
                                                                  • 5082

                                                                  #102
                                                                  first i was just going to type "soitenly"...

                                                                  then i looked for a youtubed version...

                                                                  and from this...emerged 19-minutes of 3-Stooges Heaven

                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • pacocn
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 07-05-10
                                                                    • 12934

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Fit, that was soitenly the best 19 minutes of my day today, followed closely by the 3 minute interlude with my wife of 14 years this am
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • fitguy67
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 03-13-11
                                                                      • 5082

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by pacocn
                                                                      Fit, that was soitenly the best 19 minutes of my day today, followed closely by the XXX- minute interlude with my wife of 14 years this am
                                                                      ahhh...tending to ye'olde conjugal duties....

                                                                      following gene autrey's musical advice on how to start each day...

                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • pacocn
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 07-05-10
                                                                        • 12934

                                                                        #105
                                                                        whippeeee tay yie yah, totting my old 44, back in the saddle again!!!!!!
                                                                        Comment
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