MLB 2014 BigDogs Thread "New Light Version"

[fitguy67]

big 6-team card, first game up at 1305 (CHC at home), then 3 at 16-ish, 2 at 19-ish...

d20	sat	28-Jun	eod19 values at top/d20 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,702.27	152.97	4997.11	7643.93	28	47	2,837.54	3,135.27	-297.73
94.05	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
CHC	142	66.23	94.05	U	1305
nym	152	61.88	94.05	U	1605
min	166	56.66	94.05	U	1605
col	158	59.53	94.05	U	1610
stl	136	69.15	94.05	U	1915
bos	150	62.7	94.05	U	1915
∆	150.0	376.15	564.30	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	152.8	5373.26	8208.23	28	47	2,837.54	3,135.27	-297.73
178	c.prv	27-Jun	19	c.lnq	5,000.00	4702.27	B=	4702.27
179	c.ths	28-Jun	20	159	50.00	94.05	t =	94.05

[fitguy67]

anybody following along, aside from pacocn...chek in...i'm getting lonely

[pacocn]

Fit, bol today, i like the card alot!!!!! Lets bring these dogies in!!!!!

[fitguy67]

"... your husband's idea?!!" said the elderly man, as he slid on the second leg of his uniform with the crisp new bill audibly crackling in the right pocket as it slid up his thigh, the scent of a young woman filling his nostrils for the first time in decades, and the faint taste of maple syrup still registering sweetly from the corner of his mouth


"yeah...when i told him it's the mailman's last day and asked what i should do...he said "ahhh...fukk'm...give him 20 bucks"...

"the pancake breakfast was my idea though..."

[pacocn]

Great # on Minny Fit, heading out for a jog,
breakfast, and then to my daughters karate belt test,
i'll check back late tonight to see how we did. I love this stuff!!!!!

[fitguy67]

another effing day we could/should have easily out-performed the key 40% threshold, and ended up under-performing it instead...

ttd (after 20 days action): 30 - 51, -3.612u

eod20	sat	28-Jun	eod19 values at top/d20 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,702.27	152.97	4997.11	7643.93	28	47	2,837.54	3,135.27	-297.73
94.05	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
CHC	142	66.23	94.05	L	1305		66.23	-66.23
nym	152	61.88	94.05	W	1605	94.05		94.05
min	166	56.66	94.05	L	1605		56.66	-56.66
col	158	59.53	94.05	L	1610		59.53	-59.53
stl	136	69.15	94.05	L	1915		69.15	-69.15
bos	150	62.7	94.05	W	1915	94.05		94.05
∆	150.0	376.15	564.30	2	4	188.10	251.57	-63.47
Σ	152.8	5373.26	8208.23	30	51	3,025.64	3,386.84	-361.2
178	c.prv	27-Jun	19	c.lnq	5,000.00	4702.27	B=	4638.8
179	c.ths	28-Jun	20	159	50.00	94.05	t =	92.78

[Tommy Karate]

anybody following along, aside from pacocn...chek in...i'm getting lonely

Gl today fit guy.
Think Boston gets it done tonight.
Do you play dogs of any size?

Also on Colorado and minny medium size plays.

[alamo]

Good luck fit. The AKQJT will land soon

[fitguy67]

Gl today fit guy.
Think Boston gets it done tonight.
Do you play dogs of any size?

Also on Colorado and minny medium size plays.

welcome dex...

*anything at/over +135, taken from a once-a-day "snapshot" of 5d prices (time of that snapshot determined primarily by the logistical convenience of the OP...not very systematic...but that's just for the official thread-record...i post up what i see on
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/ ...and theN i'm in the same boat as everyone else...start my "official shopping list" challenge from there...the thread record's just a benchmark really as to how this "all big dogs + fitguy's bet-sizing angles" project does in general...as always YOUR MILEAGE MAY VARY)

*bet everything to win 1 set-for-the-day $-amount, rather than risk so there's considerably less risk on the straight up ml-plays than using the standard american betting protocol

*i also treat these dogs as horses (prices similar to faves/near faves in a 10-horse field)...so i've been "round-robinning" the bastids daily as well...so when we near-sweep or sweep (which shouldn't be all that rare) there's a chance for a nice fat $-storm to reward the good guys for all their patience and discipline...i'll start writing that part up specifically in a few days (on W,jul02--start of calendar week 27)

*in these last three days till then...will be nice if we can put a few half-assed days together that we're "due" (in the statistical sense of regressing to longer-term sustainable numbers)...you know this being a systems guy how "runs" one way or the other come/stay/go with no warning...like buses (none for an hour...then 4 in the next 5 minutes)...

*in last 12 days, since i started putting extra coin into the parlay sidebet program we've under-performed the daily expected 40% 10 freakin' times...and minimally gone over it just twice...so a statistician would not be too surprised if dogs have their "day(s)" = dog-system guys finally getting the free spins on their slot machines they've patiently been waiting for

only other thing is that all bets are for action...these guys are "supposed to lose" anyway...and when they do, we only lose about 2/3rd unit...so it'd be a crying shame to miss one of the Ws for a pitcher change...

with my "applied probability" approach each game is really a long-complicated draw of a card from a fully-shuffled deck...TJQKA we win/lose everything else...the baseball itself (and all the entertainment and $-exhilaration/$-frustration related to it) is "secondary"...in the long run all we have is a long string of Ws and Ls...and the only thing important $-wise is how sensibly we navigated thru the days that gave us each day's new handful of Ws and Ls

___________

sorry for the "welcome aboard" becoming a "word blizzard"...that's the benefit to the OP of starting a thread...helps you clarify exactly what you're doing SO much better than if you were "just doing it" for yourself

_____________

GL to all of us...today's 3-pack up in a few (yes, including the fooking Rockies again...i hate any deck of cards they get involved with...but if anyone is going to break the "due-ness" ice for us, should be them)

[fitguy67]

d21	sun	29-Jun	eod20 values at top/d21 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,638.80	152.76	5373.26	8208.23	30	51	3,025.64	3,386.84	-361.20
92.78	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
col	161	57.63	92.78	U	1410
stl	190	48.83	92.78	U	1610
cle	175	53.02	92.78	U	1610
∆	174.5	159.48	278.34	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	153.4	5532.74	8486.57	30	51	3,025.64	3,386.84	-361.2
179	prev	28-Jun	20	c.lnq	5,000.00	4638.8	B=	4638.80
180	this	29-Jun	21	159	50.00	92.78	t =	92.78

key figures in large bold...

a small 3-pack providing a nice little target for a near-sweep or, "god-willing" the elusive full-sweep to restore the flock's faith in "the power of the under-appreciated underdog"

[pacocn]

Great prices Fit, lets do this!!!!!!!!!

[fitguy67]

ok...here's a good simple one to explain the round-robin bit

if we were betting standard style we'd have risked 3 full $92.78 units or $278.34

but since we're instead treating the $92.78 as "to win it" or "twinit" amounts (why i name it "t" and not "u"...remember, u is the fixed $-amount set at a flat percentage of the fixed starting bank or investment...it stays a $100=2% of starting bank and makes an ever-handy way to convert from all the generic-$ we see, based on a starting bank of $5000)

anyhow...betting the way i do, we're risking just 159.48...in a sense "saving" the $118.86 difference

what i do is to take that difference and use it to finance a side-bet composed of all the 2-team combos you can make from the card..

with today's 3 teams...that's just three 2-leg parlays...so i have also placed 3 hi-pop (average price ~+650) parlays at $39.62 each

at the end of the day, if all three teams lose, i'm no worse off than the parallel-universe me who bets american style...if 1 team wins...i'm a little worse off than him...but if 2 or 3 teams win i'm increasingly-wonderfully better off than him

the upside: the benefits of any card's exceeding the 40% threshold is magnified to the extent of the excess

the downside: anything less than the 2-teams winning required to at least "graduate" one parlay is zilcho...and, even if you exceed this 2-team minimum, if you're still under the 40% hit-rate for the day...it's still a drain on the ac vs. the guy who just ignores this silly sidebet

thus 2 outa 4 is +, 2 outa 5 is roughly like kissing your sister, and 2 outa 6 is -
________
it's the odd good days...eg. on a 5-game card, it's the 3 , 4 , or 5 : that make this project worthwhile...

which is why, despite what i say about this just being slow card-flips...once i've got near 40% of my day's dogs safely in...and i start looking for "gravy"...those late-game fukkups like MIA pulled against OAK a few days ago...are like daggers into a hopeful-soul's heart

[fitguy67]

Good luck fit. The AKQJT will land soon

yeah, when one of our dogs is holding onto a slim lead or tied going into the late'uns...

i picture it as the draw of a fuzzily-defined card that you can "peek at"...

dogs are winning and you see rather-clearly that it's some sort of face card...but as the game plays out what you can make out may "morph" into something more substantially better...or worse...later in the game, the cards generally appear clearer BUT may morph on a dime to "break your heart" or "put you on top of the world" by the time the last out is registered/ the croupier announces the card's name

last week, Minny's in a scoreless draw...then, bless their heart, score in the top of the tenth...the unknown card was showing it's royal face...a few minutes later the croupier announces a 6 of diamonds when the twinkies bullpen blows it
______________

meanwhile, back at today: how much is it to ask a universe that's been picking mostly shit cards for two weeks now...to cough up 2 outa 3 (hell, why not even 3 outa 3...oprah says "dare to ask for big things", lol) blackjack-worthy cards...

[fitguy67]

my beloved rockies hit, then crickets...

eod21	sun	29-Jun	eod20 values at top/d21 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,638.80	152.76	5373.26	8208.23	30	51	3,025.64	3,386.84	-361.20
92.78	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
col	161	57.63	92.78	W	1410	92.78		92.78
stl	190	48.83	92.78	L	1610		48.83	-48.83
cle	175	53.02	92.78	L	1610		53.02	-53.02
∆	174.5	159.48	278.34	1	2	92.78	101.85	-9.07
Σ	153.4	5532.74	8486.57	31	53	3,118.42	3,488.69	-370.27
179	prev	28-Jun	20	c.lnq	5,000.00	4638.8	B=	4629.73
180	this	29-Jun	21	159	50.00	92.78	t =	92.59

[fitguy67]

today's 5-pack (note: yes, i see that one is +205...from now on i take everything at/above +135...no upper limit)

d22	mon	30-Jun	eod21 values at top/d22 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,629.73	153.39	5532.74	8486.57	31	53	3,118.42	3,488.69	-370.27
92.59	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
tex	138	67.09	92.59		1905
col	205	45.17	92.59		1905
nym	155	59.74	92.59		1910
chc	137	67.58	92.59		1910
CHW	144	64.3	92.59		2010
∆	152.3	303.88	462.95	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	153.3	5836.62	8949.52	31	53	3,118.42	3,488.69	-370.27
180	prev	29-Jun	21	c.lnq	5,000.00	4629.73	B=	4629.73
181	this	30-Jun	22	159	50.00	92.59	t =	92.59

[fitguy67]

fellow passive-aggressives

passive=low risk=saving $ on the straight-ups by "fixed target" (rather than the standard "fixed risk") betting

aggressive=happy to risk those "saved $" on something much more fun (aka. volatile): 2-leg parlays

________________

today's savings of $159.07 can be used to finance 10 two-leg parlays, each risking $15.91
average odds = (todays average odds +100)squared, then - 100...+530-ish
*if less than 2 teams hit we're worse off than if we didn't bother
*if exactly 2 teams hit, there's no substantive effect either way
*if 3 or more hit we are much (or much much, or much much much) better off

[fitguy67]

thanks Rox & Mets...could have easily gone 3-1 instead...but ended 1-3, down small u...but also a "dry spin" on my dog-parlay slot machine on what could have been a big day...

was especially hard to type in an "L" on that last "turnaround" game, nym

oh well...another good day for "cultivating character"...most notably persistence (=patience + discipline)

ttd (22days): 32-56, -4.4968u

[fitguy67]

in technicolor...as always, the cliffs-notes version is bold-faced

d22	mon	30-Jun	eod21 values at top/d22 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,629.73	153.39	5532.74	8486.57	31	53	3,118.42	3,488.69	-370.27
92.59	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
tex	138	67.09	92.59	L	1905		67.09	-67.09
col	205	45.17	92.59	L	1905		45.17	-45.17
nym	155	59.74	92.59	L	1910		59.74	-59.74
chc	137	67.58	92.59	W	1910	92.59		92.59
CHW	144	64.3	92.59	p	2010
∆	152.3	303.88	462.95	1	3	92.59	172.00	-79.41
Σ	153.3	5836.62	8949.52	32	56	3,211.01	3,660.69	-449.68
180	prev	29-Jun	21	c.lnq	5,000.00	4629.73	B=	4550.32
181	this	30-Jun	22	159	50.00	92.59	t =	91.01

[fitguy67]

d23	tue	1-Jul	eod22 values at top/d23 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,550.32	153.33	5836.62	8949.52	32	56	3,211.01	3,660.69	-449.68
91.01	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
CHW	150	60.67	91.01		1710
col	230	39.57	91.01		1905
chc	158	57.6	91.01		1910
nym	167	54.5	91.01		1910
CHW	154	59.1	91.01		2010
∆	167.6	271.44	455.05	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	154.0	6108.06	9404.57	32	56	3,211.01	3,660.69	-449.68
181	prev	30-Jun	22	launch	5,000.00	4550.32	B=	4550.32
182	this	1-Jul	23	159	100.00	91.01	t =	91.01

[fitguy67]

executive decision, effective yesterday was to have no upper limit on prices

henceforth, this thread takes all dogs at/above +135

almost all dog-buying systems put an upper limit on dogs because their low hit-rate just can't be tolerated when they're risking full units on each play...not an issue with my far-more-conservative "fixed target" betting protocol...as dogs get a higher and higher payout...they become a cheaper and cheaper "lottery ticket to win the fixed-$-prize that applies to that day"

note the overall average price of +154 over the 88 plays thus far...implying a hit rate of 39.37% is required to "break even"...meaning if we'd won "34.6 games" we'd be about flat units

unfortunately we are just "2.6 games" short of that quota at 32 outa 88 for 36.36%

winning or losing units in sports-betting rests on a knife-edge like this...and can reverse within a day or two

"bad beats" and their alter-ego "horseshoe-up-the-ass wins" are also interesting in this regard...it's VERY easy to think of several games (far more than 2.6) that could have very easily gone the other way...but this works both ways...and we tend to forget the HUA wins

W's and L's are just like R's/B's in roulette, H's/T's in coin-tosses...they always regress to long-term values BUT at the the same time exhibit considerable "waves" of alternating "very much over"/"very much under" their "expected" longer-run values

in addition to the waves of unmodified-W's/L's...we also have "faves winning/dogs winning", "sharp results/square results" etc. etc. waves constantly ebbing and flowing in a see-saw pattern with the same strong tendencies for short-term di-gression from WHILE SUMULTANEOUSLY in the long-term re-gressing (aka. "correcting") to the "expected"/"long-term sustainable" numbers

__________

moral of the story: nothing's broke, we persist with a confident curiousity-driven attitude (rather than a nervous greed-driven one)

[pacocn]

Get em today fit

[fitguy67]

eod23	tue	1-Jul	eod22 values at top/d23 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,550.32	153.33	5836.62	8949.52	32	56	3,211.01	3,660.69	-449.68
91.01	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
CHW	150	60.67	91.01	L	1710		60.67	-60.67
col	230	39.57	91.01	L	1905		39.57	-39.57
chc	158	57.6	91.01	W	1910	91.01		91.01
nym	167	54.5	91.01	L	1910		54.50	-54.50
CHW	154	59.1	91.01	L	2010		59.10	-59.10
∆	167.6	271.44	455.05	1	4	91.01	213.84	-122.83
Σ	154.0	6108.06	9404.57	33	60	3,302.02	3,874.53	-572.51
181	prev	30-Jun	22	launch	5,000.00	4550.32	B=	4427.49
182	this	1-Jul	23	159	100.00	91.01	t =	88.55

break-even hit-rate = 39.37% >>> 36.6 (vs. 33 actual) out of 99

not a whole hell of a lot of difference statistically between struggling like this, and doing well

see most recent above posts for additional perspective

last two days just 2 of 9 (both wins from the cubs!)

[fitguy67]

the experiment continues

d24	Wed	2-Jul	eod23 values at top/d24 chnges & new totals at bottom
4,427.49	153.97	6108.06	9404.57	33	60	3,302.02	3,874.53	-572.51
88.55	+prices	Ventured	Targeted	status	stg time	Add'ns	Subtrac'ns	N=A-S
cle	151	58.64	88.55	U	1510
col	205	43.2	88.55	U	1805
arz	142	62.36	88.55	U	1905
nym	178	49.75	88.55	U	1910
chc	142	62.36	88.55	U	1910
∆	160.2	276.31	442.75	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Σ	154.2	6384.37	9847.32	33	60	3,302.02	3,874.53	-572.51
182	prev	1-Jul	23	launch	5,000.00	4427.49	B=	4427.49
183	this	2-Jul	24	159	100.00	88.55	t =	88.55

[alamo]

The dogs just not biting late June into July. I'm sure they will get hungry soon and coming out swinging

[fitguy67]

alamo...

it's during the tough-sledding times like this that you can really appreciate the $-conservative benefits of both
*risking only about 2/3rd as much as normal (by unorthodox "fixed target" betting at the 150-ish odds we typically get)
AND
*adjusting the $-definitions applied daily (which has seen the initial $100 rise to $108 during the first week...and, since then it's been on "auto shrivel" to its current $89--further dampening each successive losing day's $-blows to the bank...daily-adjusted-flat-% bet-sizing like this is the way to go...the $-bet shrivels into a slump...and will automatically reverse itself and expand into the next streak...tho' it's hard to think about the inevitable spring and summer in the middle of february like we've been stuck in last two weeks)

still ridiculously early into the project and we've had one mini-streak of less than a week, followed by this real slump that's now going into its 3rd week...the $-pain of this slump has been clearly lessened by the setup of things...but still painful

[fitguy67]

Heads-Up: I'll be rolling into a new thread tomorrow, will link to it here

Guyz...don't worry, not trying to cover my dog-tracks...i'll carry the results over and post them prominently with every ttd update:

primary motivation, after all, for me is curiosity-satisfaction:

i have a few interesting wrinkles to fold into the fabric tho' and a new thread will be needed to house the whole project which will include the basic "singles program" reported on daily in this thread...plus a few more side-projects...a few hints...

*from now on, we'll be taking the five biggest dogs (whatever their price)...will make selection and play-submission a ton easier

all the plays in each sub-project you wish to participate in will involve the risk of exactly one of today's units, "t"...calculated the same way as before after each day's results are finalized...for example each of the single plays in the project will, from now on be to risk just a fifth of a "t"...this is to make room for a few more ways to make more "hay" when the sun finally shines on our dogs' behinds...each is another ways to stack way more jack when we finally start hitting some 3's, 4's...even the elusive 5 (remember every day will be a 5-pack from now on)...

if you don't like the optional low-risk/hi-pop round-robin variations i'll be presenting tomorrow, feel free to just continue on with just the singles and increase the bet-size as you wish...but it'll sure make the season more interesting knowing that one little sweep (or even RL-assisted sweep or ML near-sweep) can make for a monstrous payout (all for just keeping a a tiny lottery-ticket side-play going)...

anyhow, till tomorrow, keep your eye on the scoreboard tonight (we're on CLE, COL, ARZ, NYM, and CHC), and remember that old fit's got all kindsa interest in our dogs either covering with the 1.5run boost...and even-better straight-up as usual...and that less than 2 hitting means bad, 2 is like kissing your sister and 3/4/5 is good/better/absolutely fabulous...

later

[fitguy67]

not quite ready yet for the full-featured "reboot"...so we persist after yesterday's flat 2-3 day...with today's slate of from now on..."five clearly biggest dogs of the day" (at whatever 5d-prices they may be at when i tak'em off the screen...

right now that translates to...taken off the live-odds hub right now

1545 stl +142
1905 arz +136
1908 tam +166
2105 tor +141
2205 hou +159

i'm so happy that neither COL nor NYM are to be found on today's list...
those guyz (especially the rockies) have burned out my "urge to kill muscles"

[alamo]

with today's slate of from now on..."five clearly biggest dogs of the day"

fit, Are you saying that if there is 8 games where there are +135 or better you are going to filter to only the 5 biggest prices or do we play all 8 ?

[fitguy67]

will include only the "day's five highest ml-pays"...

even if that means not counting something clearly over +135...or counting something clearly under +135 because we need it to make up the quota...

you'll see why soon, in detail, when i post the whole shebang...

till then (probably all laid out well before first-pitch Friday)...just keep doing what you're doing...

but i'm playing only those five teams mentioned...in a special way that'll make me happy/very happy/ecstatic if 3/4/5 of the stable hit on the ML...(and i'll be similarly but more modestly-positioned for profit if 3/4/5 of our teams at least hit with the 1.5run cushion...this +RL component of soon to be released "fit2.0" is designed more as a "consolation prize" for those days we get heartbroken in 1-run games)...

starting tomorrow for u guyz there'll be a lotta small plays involving just the day's five highest pays (in both ml and rl configurations as i hinted at...and spread out as singles/doubles/trebles...so when the odd 4- or 5-ML'rs hit we're VERY well positioned with lotsa uber-pay tickets to make all the pain of the 0/1/2-win days go away...

no CHANGES to anything really (except going to a set number of big-dogs)...but several ADDITIONAL ways to play that set of teams

[fitguy67]

come on arizona...as john lennon used to sing "all we are saying...is give a fit a chance"

[fitguy67]

ok, now we turn our attention to the blue jays (but not dropping our gratitude for the dbacks' waking up...taking decent fortune "for granted" is severely-punished by the deities...so please universe...keep our d'backs' lead safe from those mean Pie-Rats)...

...and the official voice from that realm answers (hopefully referring to both arz and tor...)...as for Tampa...some "miracles" are just too big to ask for!

[fitguy67]

while listening to the voice, dbacks score a topa'da'9th insurance run and still threatening heavily with 2 RISP and zilcho outs...since the oldies seem to be workin' here's an amazing bit of musicianship from "the killer"...recorded millions of years ago....you know, when people actually played (rather than programmed) instruments...and actually sang (rather than mouthed-over studio recordings)

and an excellent 6 minute overview of the guy that practically invented rocknroll piano

and another musical plea for some positive variance from the toronto blue-birds (while the snakes were scoring too many runs...the BJ's slipped back)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MC6MAqp14A

[fitguy67]

even the musical moldy-oldy "come'on" fails to break me thru to the other side of the "2 outa 5" barrier...another flat day...

3 week blaah pattern of just a bit shy of 40% is testing of one's resolve...goading the weak-willed (and probability-illiterate) to abandon the path before it pays dividends...

tons of July04 baseball tomorrow, starting as early as 11:05...

i'll try to do at least a basic update before then...

[fitguy67]

i'll try to update last 2 days worth of action, but it's basically flat...as both were 2outa5 or "kiss your sister" 40% level...will formally update when i have the chance

today's plays at current 5d (pinny for the last one)

1705 phi +184
1910 arz +156
1935 col +184
2010 sea +148
2105 hou +165

will continue with business-as-usual till the ASB...then launch the new more fully-featured version of this project...we're just a few games under the magic 40% break-even level and we're just a few units in the red... so hoping that by ASB/re-boot time we're at/better-than flat

[fitguy67]

happy 4th of July to those in the land of the free, happy 185th calendar day of the year for everyone else