2014 JM MLB Thread

allidoiswin89 · 04-07-14, 09:02 AM

@ok,

The over under system was posted in last years thread as well so not sure what you are referring to...

Andy3568 · 04-07-14, 03:33 PM

Just got the new JM MLB System Summary. Here are a few changes:

(1) He changed the "worst road team" filter to include the worst 10%, which means you skip a bet if the team you're betting on is playing on the road and has one of the worst three (3) road records.

(2) He eliminated the injury filter, but he does say now to "bet on listed pitchers," which means an automatic filter for your listed pitcher. I assume he means only the listed pitcher for the team you're betting on, not the opposing team.

(3) He eliminated the "alternate run line" rule, but he does say if your team has a -1.5 run line but has -110 odds or better (-105 would be better), then either skip the bet or bet on the M/L, but don't continue if the team loses by one run.

(4) He now says do not place a "D" bet in a four-game series. Only include the first three games.

(5) Almost forgot this one, but he says the season ends 8/23 instead of the end of August. Not sure if that means don't start any series that end after this date or simply don't start a series after this date.

I think these are the only changes.

Wallco99 · 04-07-14, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by Andy3568

Just got the new JM MLB System Summary. Here are a few changes:

(1) He changed the "worst road team" filter to include the worst 10%, which means you skip a bet if the team you're betting on is playing on the road and has one of the worst three (3) road records.

(2) He eliminated the injury filter, but he does say now to "bet on listed pitchers," which means an automatic filter for your listed pitcher. I assume he means only the listed pitcher for the team you're betting on, not the opposing team.

(3) He eliminated the "alternate run line" rule, but he does say if your team has a -1.5 run line but has -110 odds or better (-105 would be better), then either skip the bet or bet on the M/L, but don't continue if the team loses by one run.

(4) He now says do not place a "D" bet in a four-game series. Only include the first three games.

(5) Almost forgot this one, but he says the season ends 8/23 instead of the end of August. Not sure if that means don't start any series that end after this date or simply don't start a series after this date.

I think these are the only changes.

I think he will continue adding filters every year to make his previous years undefeated, which does no good to the people who already lost money on those games, until he is down to only 3 or 4 plays in a single season. Perhaps everyone should call their book and tell them you inadvertantly placed several bets last year that lost, and had you realized you should have used more filters, you wouldn't have placed those bets. Just mention John Morrison's name. I sure they will understand, and with a referral from JM himself, how couldn't they refund all your money? What rules are you guys playing by this year that will lose, to have him next year add filters to wipe away those losses also. I've never been a fan of this system, and the constant changing of the rules is the main reason why.

Andy3568 · 04-07-14, 04:31 PM

Not my favorite system either. If you want to verify the plays yourself, it requires following hundreds of games that result in only a fraction of potential plays, half of which are eliminated by the 0.015 RPI filter. But it has had some pretty good years.

snark · 04-07-14, 07:01 PM

Anyone seen the new MLB exterminator system?

alexknyc · 04-07-14, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by snark

Anyone seen the new MLB exterminator system?

I'm thinking this question is going to be asked at least once a week.

Can we put it in the updates?

oldshoebox72 · 04-08-14, 06:26 AM

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official season series record:0-0
Unofficial season series record: 4-0, +4 units

Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 2-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/8/2014
No play today
NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

hagball52 · 04-08-14, 07:38 AM

Originally posted by Andy3568

Just got the new JM MLB System Summary. Here are a few changes:

(1) He changed the "worst road team" filter to include the worst 10%, which means you skip a bet if the team you're betting on is playing on the road and has one of the worst three (3) road records.

(2) He eliminated the injury filter, but he does say now to "bet on listed pitchers," which means an automatic filter for your listed pitcher. I assume he means only the listed pitcher for the team you're betting on, not the opposing team.

(3) He eliminated the "alternate run line" rule, but he does say if your team has a -1.5 run line but has -110 odds or better (-105 would be better), then either skip the bet or bet on the M/L, but don't continue if the team loses by one run.

(4) He now says do not place a "D" bet in a four-game series. Only include the first three games.

(5) Almost forgot this one, but he says the season ends 8/23 instead of the end of August. Not sure if that means don't start any series that end after this date or simply don't start a series after this date.

I think these are the only changes.

I got the same email. Also the top 2 rpi rule is in there. I'm going to go back and see if I can edit my filter post. If not I'll re-post it. At some point there will be enough filters we won't have any official plays.

hagball52 · 04-08-14, 08:00 AM

These are the new and updated (04/08/14) filters for the JM MLB System. They will be mentioned when they come into play but will not affect the posting of the plays. All series will be posted regardless of the filter. Morrison always sends out the plays and then pulls the filter out of his ass when the series loses. It will be your choice on whether or not to play the series. I know there will be times when I miss something during the season and I do appreciate when one of you steps up and mentions it or calls me out. This is why I am posting them so if I do make an error someone will catch it. At this point these are all of the filters that I know of. I just read the latest pdf.

- Listed Pitcher- You should always bet the listed pitcher for your team.

- Top 2 rpi filter- If the team you are betting against is rated top 2 in the rpi then you should pass on this series.

- Worst road team filter- If the team you are betting on is in the bottom 10% (bottom 3) road teams then you should pass on the series. If they are playing at home it's okay to play on them.

- Run Line Rule- If the team you are betting on is favored by up to -110 odds or better (-105) and shows a -1.5 run line you can either bet them on the money line or pass on the series but if they lose by one run don't continue the series.

- (D) bet rule- If you are playing a series and it is a 4 game set and the (C) bet loses do not make a (D) bet on the 4th game.

- End of season- The plays for official betting series will end on August 23rd.

- The rpi drop- This is not a rule or a filter but Morrison has used it in the past to erase losses from his record. The rule is if a team you are betting on drops below the recommended .015 rpi during the course of the series then you should pass on the series. Vintage JM B.S. When you start a series just take note of how close the rpi is and decide for yourself whether or not to play it.

hagball52 · 04-08-14, 08:04 AM

JM MLB System
2014 Official season series record 0-0 (V1)
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0
V3 system 0-0
Unofficial series 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0

Next Plays
None yet

Upcoming plays
04/08 LAA @ SEA (2 gm set for tracking purpose only)
05/16 NYM @ WAS

Notes: Just making this post to show the new post # for the updated filters.

The rules for the JM MLB system can be found in post #10 and the filters in post #115 (pg. 4). Any results and information regarding the last 2 seasons are in posts #12, 13 and 14. Good luck all and let's make a little money this season.

hagball52 · 04-08-14, 08:18 AM

Totals Plays 4-15 (-11.00 / -11.75 units)

04/07 CIN (Cingrani) @ STL (Wacha) under 6.5 even loss
04/07 LAA (Wilson) @ HOU (Cosart) under 8 even loss
04/07 TEX (Sheppers) @ BOS (Lackey) over 9 -110 loss
04/07 TAM (Moore) @ KAN (Vargas) under 8 -110 win
04/07 SDG (Erlin) @ CLE (Kluber) over 8 +110 ppd
04/07 CWS (Paulino) @ COL (Lyles) over 10 +105 loss

04/08 DET (Sherzer) @ LAD (Haren) over 6.5
04/08 MIL (Lohse) @ PHI (Kendrick) under 8.5

They didn't post the odds or the sportsbook on their plays today. I'm assuming they're not even betting their own plays at this point.

Wallco99 · 04-08-14, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by hagball52

Totals Plays 4-15 (-11.00 / -11.75 units)

04/07 CIN (Cingrani) @ STL (Wacha) under 6.5 even loss
04/07 LAA (Wilson) @ HOU (Cosart) over 8 even loss
04/07 TEX (Sheppers) @ BOS (Lackey) over 9 -110 loss
04/07 TAM (Moore) @ KAN (Vargas) under 8 -110 win
04/07 SDG (Erlin) @ CLE (Kluber) over 8 +110 ppd
04/07 CWS (Paulino) @ COL (Lyles) over 10 +105 loss

04/08 DET (Sherzer) @ LAD (Haren)
04/08 MIL (Lohse) @ PHI (Kendrick)

They didn't post the odds or the sportsbook on their plays today. I'm assuming they're not even betting their own plays at this point.

You shorted yourself there, LAA/HOU game went over (10 total runs). Not that it matters, this system doesn't seem too happening at the moment. As far as today's plays go, are they OVERS or UNDERS?

hagball52 · 04-08-14, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

You shorted yourself there, LAA/HOU game went over (10 total runs). Not that it matters, this system doesn't seem too happening at the moment. As far as today's plays go, are they OVERS or UNDERS?

Sorry about that, got interrupted during my morning routine. And that LAA/HOU was supposed to be an under and I did lose on it. I wished I would have played it over. Anyways I corrected the post and thanks for waking me up.

hagball52 · 04-08-14, 10:31 AM

Totals Plays 4-15 (-11.00 / -11.75 units)

04/08 DET (Sherzer) @ LAD (Haren) over 6.5
04/08 MIL (Lohse) @ PHI (Kendrick) under 8.5
04/08 BAL (Chen) @ NYY (Nova) over 8.5

Just received an email update with extra play. It starts at 1:00 eastern

DPT2B2016 · 04-08-14, 11:11 AM

Checking in for the season

jsleeeee · 04-08-14, 01:01 PM

Last season was profitable. Hope to see it repeat itself

oldshoebox72 · 04-09-14, 06:34 AM

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official season series record:0-0
Unofficial season series record: 4-0, +4 units

Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 2-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/9/2014
No play today
NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

Just an observation, these two teams are got filter out from the system:
Cleveland is on 5 games on OVER,
Minnesota is on 7 games OVER
What you want to do with that data is non of my business

hagball52 · 04-09-14, 08:32 AM

Totals Plays 5-17 (-12.40 / -13.20 units)

04/08 DET (Sherzer) @ LAD (Haren) over 6.5 -125 loss
04/08 MIL (Lohse) @ PHI (Kendrick) under 8.5 -115 loss
04/08 BAL (Chen) @ NYY (Nova) over 8.5 -120 win

04/09 SDG @ CLE over 8
04/09 CWS @ COL over 10
04/09 ARI @ SFO over 8

Their emails now have quit listing the pitchers, sportsbooks and odds. SDG and CLE are playing a doubleheader today so I presume the early game is the play and I also presume they quit betting their own plays. Maybe I should do the same before I go broke.

hagball52 · 04-09-14, 08:35 AM

JM MLB System
2014 Official season series record 0-0 (V1)
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0
V3 system 0-0
Unofficial series 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0

Next Plays
None yet

Upcoming plays
04/08 LAA @ SEA (2 gm set for tracking purpose only)
05/16 NYM @ WAS

Notes: There are 2 possible sweeps today. Back tomorrow with updates.

The rules for the JM MLB system can be found in post #10 and the filters in post #115 (pg. 4). Any results and information regarding the last 2 seasons are in posts #12, 13 and 14. Good luck all and let's make a little money this season.

allidoiswin89 · 04-09-14, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by oldshoebox72

Just an observation, these two teams are got filter out from the system:
Cleveland is on 5 games on OVER,
Minnesota is on 7 games OVER
What you want to do with that data is non of my business

That's a good demonstration of why of why the filters are important.

Wallco99 · 04-09-14, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by oldshoebox72

Just an observation, these two teams are got filter out from the system:
Cleveland is on 5 games on OVER,
Minnesota is on 7 games OVER
What you want to do with that data is non of my business

Yeah, let's jump on that. I'm sure that never happened before.

oldshoebox72 · 04-09-14, 10:25 PM

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official season series record:0-0
Unofficial season series record: 4-0, +4 units

Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 2-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/10/2014
##### UNDER CUBS (A)

2:20 pm EST
##### UNDER PHILLIES (A)

NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

Just an observation, these two teams are got filter out from the system:
Giants is on 6 games on OVERS,
Minnesota is on 8 games OVERS
What you want to do with that data is non of my business

oldshoebox72 · 04-09-14, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Yeah, let's jump on that. I'm sure that never happened before.

I actually got myself couple units on UNDER Cleveland because they play double header. I thought that if first one going OVER, I will double down on second game (same with playing Cleveland ML)

I think I will take a shot at UNDER Twins tomorrow, and chase into Royals series if necessary.

Wallco99 · 04-09-14, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by oldshoebox72

I actually got myself couple units on UNDER Cleveland because they play double header. I thought that if first one going OVER, I will double down on second game (same with playing Cleveland ML)

I think I will take a shot at UNDER Twins tomorrow, and chase into Royals series if necessary.

I cahed on it as well, but only because I have been fading the Hagball O/U picks the past few days. Was doing OK, but went 1-2 today.

hagball52 · 04-10-14, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

I cahed on it as well, but only because I have been fading the Hagball O/U picks the past few days. Was doing OK, but went 1-2 today.

Just think where we would be had we started fading from the beginning. Wait till you see what they got today.

hagball52 · 04-10-14, 08:40 AM

Totals Plays 7-18 (-11.55 / -12.35 units)

04/09 SDG @ CLE over 8 loss (-115)
04/09 CWS @ COL over 10 win
04/09 ARI @ SFO over 8 win

04/10 OAK @ MIN over 8.5 (even)
04/10 MIA @ WAS over 7.5 (+110)
04/10 BOS @ NYY over 8.5 (even)
04/10 MIL @ PHI over 7.5 (even)
04/10 HOU @ TOR over 8.5 (+105)
04/10 NYM @ ATL over 7.5 (+110)
04/10 CLE @ CWS over 8 (even)
04/10 ARI @ SFO under 7.5 (even)

They said all odds are from Pinnacle. They post them in European decimal odds so I just converted to traditional odds.
That is an awful lot of plays for one day so if you are tailing or fading please tread lightly. Still don't know what to expect this early on. For all I know they just got off to a bad start and could go on a tear here so be careful.

hagball52 · 04-10-14, 08:53 AM

JM MLB System
2014 Official season series record 0-0 (V1)
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0
V3 system 0-0
Unofficial series 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0

Next Plays
None yet

Upcoming plays
05/16 NYM @ WAS

Notes: There were no sweeps yesterday and that Angels/Mariners series ended with the Angels finally getting a win so no future play there. There are 4 possible sweeps in play today. Will update tomorrow.

The rules for the JM MLB system can be found in post #10 and the filters in post #115 (pg. 4). Any results and information regarding the last 2 seasons are in posts #12, 13 and 14. Good luck all and let's make a little money this season.

Wallco99 · 04-10-14, 08:54 AM

Originally posted by hagball52

Totals Plays 7-18 (-11.55 / -12.35 units)

04/09 SDG @ CLE over 8 loss (-115)
04/09 CWS @ COL over 10 win
04/09 ARI @ SFO over 8 win

04/10 OAK @ MIN over 8.5 (even)
04/10 MIA @ WAS over 7.5 (+110)
04/10 BOS @ NYY over 8.5 (even)
04/10 MIL @ PHI over 7.5 (even)
04/10 HOU @ TOR over 8.5 (+105)
04/10 NYM @ ATL over 7.5 (+110)
04/10 CLE @ CWS over 8 (even)
04/10 ARI @ SFO under 7.5 (even)

They said all odds are from Pinnacle. They post them in European decimal odds so I just converted to traditional odds.
That is an awful lot of plays for one day so if you are tailing or fading please tread lightly. Still don't know what to expect this early on. For all I know they just got off to a bad start and could go on a tear here so be careful.

Yeah, not sure what to do now. That would be too many unders for me to fade.

hagball52 · 04-10-14, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Yeah, not sure what to do now. That would be too many unders for me to fade.

Yeah I know. I was betting 2.5% of my bankroll in the beginning but after I got fleeced I've dropped it to 1% for now. Shit, after the first week I was down almost 25%. I'm kinda taking a wait and see at this point but still betting all the plays.

allidoiswin89 · 04-10-14, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by hagball52

Totals Plays 7-18 (-11.55 / -12.35 units)

04/09 SDG @ CLE over 8 loss (-115)
04/09 CWS @ COL over 10 win
04/09 ARI @ SFO over 8 win

04/10 OAK @ MIN over 8.5 (even)
04/10 MIA @ WAS over 7.5 (+110)
04/10 BOS @ NYY over 8.5 (even)
04/10 MIL @ PHI over 7.5 (even)
04/10 HOU @ TOR over 8.5 (+105)
04/10 NYM @ ATL over 7.5 (+110)
04/10 CLE @ CWS over 8 (even)
04/10 ARI @ SFO under 7.5 (even)

They said all odds are from Pinnacle. They post them in European decimal odds so I just converted to traditional odds.
That is an awful lot of plays for one day so if you are tailing or fading please tread lightly. Still don't know what to expect this early on. For all I know they just got off to a bad start and could go on a tear here so be careful.

Opposite on my Philly system play! Hopefully thats a good sign

mantorras77 · 04-10-14, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by hagball52

Just think where we would be had we started fading from the beginning. Wait till you see what they got today.

bro, can you pm me the name of the service please

oldshoebox72 · 04-11-14, 05:58 AM

Originally posted by oldshoebox72

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official season series record:0-0
Unofficial season series record: 4-0, +4 units

Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 2-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/10/2014
##### UNDER CUBS (A)

2:20 pm EST
##### UNDER PHILLIES (A)

NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

Just an observation, these two teams are got filter out from the system:
Giants is on 6 games on OVERS,
Minnesota is on 8 games OVERS
What you want to do with that data is non of my business

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official season series record:0-0
Unofficial season series record: 4-0, +4 units

Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 2-4
(B) 1-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/10/2014
##### UNDER CUBS 7.5 (A)

2:20 pm EST LOST
##### UNDER PHILLIES 7.5 (A) LOST

NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

Just an observation, these two teams are got filter out from the system:
Giants is on 6 games on OVERS,
Minnesota is on 8 games OVERS
What you want to do with that data is non of my business

oldshoebox72 · 04-11-14, 06:16 AM

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official season series record:0-0
Unofficial season series record: 4-0, +4 units

Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 2-4
(B) 1-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/11/2014
##### UNDER CUBS (B)
##### UNDER PHILLIES (B)

NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

Just an observation, these two teams are got filter out from the system:
Giants is on 7 games on OVERS,
What you want to do with that data is non of my business

Wallco99 · 04-11-14, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by oldshoebox72

Just an observation, these two teams are got filter out from the system:
Giants is on 7 games on OVERS,
What you want to do with that data is non of my business

The above sentence makes no sense in English, and "NONE" has an "e". Other than that, there's not much else I would do with it.

hagball52 · 04-11-14, 07:51 AM

****