2014 JM MLB Thread

[allidoiswin89]

4/4
##### Miami under (A)
##### Colorado under (A)

Old shoe is still posting I just want to be clear that these are indeed plays according to my prior post.

[oldshoebox72]

allidoiswin89,
you wrote: **So to recap, any pushes in between a potential qualifying series, pretend the game didn't happen. And if a push happens on Bet A (Of D), that play goes from official to unofficial throughout the season.** this is inline with what you said in post #41

You wrote: **When a qualifying series has 3 games go over/under the total lines by 3 runs or more with a game that pushes in between the 3 games, that becomes an unofficial play.** THEN **Official plays that push on b, c, or d bets will remain official plays**
Are these two statements contradicted to each other or my English really s*ck??
In the first statement, look to me like if B of (D) is a pushed we move from official to unofficial, but the second statement look like a push on B, C or D make no different.????

While you are at it, just clear this up as if A and B are over/under by 3 runs or more, and C is a pushed. We will proceed to D bet too right?
Sorry for clustering this thread with my confusion. If you want to talk via P.M to keep this thread clean, feel free to P.M me.

And sorry for missing the Rockies and Fins plays today. I will update to the record accordingly tonight.

[Wallco99]

4/4
##### Miami under (A)
##### Colorado under (A)

Old shoe is still posting I just want to be clear that these are indeed plays according to my prior post.

Why would you count the pushes as no plays in this type of system when they needed three more runs to qualify as a play? To me, anything under 10 runs on 4/1 for these teams would have been a no play. I can see if you were playing straight over / unders, but you are qualifying on over or under +/- 3 runs. If anything would be a push it would be when a game goes 3 runs more or 3 runs less than the final O/U. But since hitting the number 3 exactly also qualifies, then in this system there would be no possible way to push a qualifying game. It really is illogical to any reasoning whatsoever. I understand that the (A) (B) (C) or (D) bet could potentially push, but not a qualifying game since the actual O/U number has no relavance to this system whatsoever.

[allidoiswin89]

Im confused by your question. It sounds like you may be confusing the betting structure.

BET A is the first bet of the chase
BET D is the last be of the chase

The games that are played to create a series that we bet on are not called anything. For example, Miami and Colorado and a q ualifiying series because based on the rules, they had 3 games go over in a row. Both of these teams next gAme will be BET A on the unders. The prior 3 games that went over A are not called anything.

Someone chime in if they understand old shoe or if im not being clear

[Wallco99]

allidoiswin89,
you wrote: **So to recap, any pushes in between a potential qualifying series, pretend the game didn't happen. And if a push happens on Bet A (Of D), that play goes from official to unofficial throughout the season.** this is inline with what you said in post #41

You wrote: **When a qualifying series has 3 games go over/under the total lines by 3 runs or more with a game that pushes in between the 3 games, that becomes an unofficial play.** THEN **Official plays that push on b, c, or d bets will remain official plays**
Are these two statements contradicted to each other or my English really s*ck??
In the first statement, look to me like if B of (D) is a pushed we move from official to unofficial, but the second statement look like a push on B, C or D make no different.????

While you are at it, just clear this up as if A and B are over/under by 3 runs or more, and C is a pushed. We will proceed to D bet too right?
Sorry for clustering this thread with my confusion. If you want to talk via P.M to keep this thread clean, feel free to P.M me.

And sorry for missing the Rockies and Fins plays today. I will update to the record accordingly tonight.

The sentences make sense the way he has written them, but I am still dumfounded how a push during qualifying games gets skipped rather than starting the streak over the next game. It's like saying if a team wears a brown hat, skip that game as if it never happened. The brown hat has just as much relavance as the actual O/U number.

[allidoiswin89]

Why would you count the pushes as no plays in this type of system when they needed three more runs to qualify as a play? To me, anything under 10 runs on 4/1 for these teams would have been a no play. I can see if you were playing straight over / unders, but you are qualifying on over or under +/- 3 runs. If anything would be a push it would be when a game goes 3 runs more or 3 runs less than the final O/U. But since hitting the number 3 exactly also qualifies, then in this system there would be no possible way to push a qualifying game. It really is illogical to any reasoning whatsoever. I understand that the (A) (B) (C) or (D) bet could potentially push, but not a qualifying game since the actual O/U number has no relavance to this system whatsoever.

Thats why these are unofficial plays. Long-term, the profit will hover a little bit over breakeven. But as I stated earlier, I do this tracking this way because i use this system as another tool for betting research as many should do with all systems. *

I understand where you are coming from and that filter wasn't something I planned on. It was discovered by a thorough back test. I have no argument to everything you said except for that I noticed a trend and some years it can really help (I.e. when unofficial plays went undefeated last year).

[Wallco99]

Thats why these are unofficial plays. Long-term, the profit will hover a little bit over breakeven. But as I stated earlier, I do this tracking this way because i use this system as another tool for betting research as many should do with all systems. *

I understand where you are coming from and that filter wasn't something I planned on. It was discovered by a thorough back test. I have no argument to everything you said except for that I noticed a trend and some years it can really help (I.e. when unofficial plays went undefeated last year).

But it still would have went undefeated if the series with a push game had been skipped. The question isn't how many more wins you can get, but rather how many losses would be saved if these series were never played. It may turn out to be on the + side of 50/50 instead of break even like you say it is now. i realize the use of filters to determine plays, but that one makes no sense at all. If an O/U for a game is 7, then technically our O/U for a qualifying play is 10, or 4. so the whole range between the 4 and the 10 is the dead range as far as determining O/U streaks. Why would the number in the direct center of the dead range not be counted? Seems silly.

[allidoiswin89]

I understand your logic and you are 100% correct. It doesnt make sense. However, there any many trends that are silly that dont make sense yet produce a profit for periods of time. Like I said earlier, I wouldnt go out of my way to make a system that doesn't make sense logically but I just stumbled across it during the back test

[Wallco99]

I understand your logic and you are 100% correct. It doesnt make sense. However, there any many trends that are silly that dont make sense yet produce a profit for periods of time. Like I said earlier, I wouldnt go out of my way to make a system that doesn't make sense logically but I just stumbled across it during the back test

None that I would use.

[oldshoebox72]

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 0-2
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0

4/4/2014 (Originally I post as no play today as I wasn't clear with the rule, allidoiswin89 later posted there are supposed to be 2 plays qualified for today. So I will update the result with two plays as he posted)
Unofficial:
(A)Miami UNDER 7.5Loss
(A) Colorado UNDER 10 Loss

NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

[oldshoebox72]

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 0-2
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/5/2014
Unofficial:
(B) UNDER Miami
(B) UNDER Colorado
(A) UNDER CWS (2:10 pm EST)

NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

[hagball52]

Totals Plays 2-3 (-.95 / -1.55 units)

04/04 TOR (McGowan) vs NYY (Tanaka) over 8.5 win
04/04 DET (Sanchez) vs BAL (Gonzalez) under 7.5 loss

04/05 SFO (Bumgarner) @ LAD (Maholm) under 7 +105
04/05 STL (Kelly) @ PIT (Liriano) under 6.5 +110
04/05 ARI (McCarthy) @ COL (De La Rosa) over 10 +115
04/05 NYY (Pineda) @ TOR (Dickey) over 8.5 +105
04/05 CWS (Danks) @ KAN (Chen) over 8.5 +100

Okay so here's what's going on. I've got to tell this whole story so everybody that is thinking of following these plays knows the plan. I've been in communication with this service over the odds they are posting because I have not been able to get the exact totals that they are posting and especially nowhere near the odds they are posting. They always post the odds and the sportsbook they make the play at and several of the plays are at Pinnacle and Marathon which I am unable to bet because I live in the U.S. When I signed up for the service they said there would be around 1000 plays over the course of the baseball season and to expect around 100 units profit. Well without sitting down and doing a whole lot of math you could reach that goal probably hitting around 51% to 52% of your plays at the odds they are posting BUT if you are constantly getting odds at -110 to -125 like I am all of a sudden you will lose around 100 units over that many plays.

So for now I will keep posting the plays and I think I better show their results and my results financially because they will definitely differ. For now I will just show the 2 balances side by side. Their's will be on the left and mine on the right. As you can see after 5 games into the season there is already quite a bit of difference. So far they have posted 5 plays but 2 of them did not have the odds so I figured them at even (+100).I'm hoping over time that the amount of variance will balance out but I'm not so sure. Possibly I'll get a more favorable line where I win or push and they lose.

If this looks like it's not going to end well I'll pull it and suffer the loss and move on with a lesson learned. They usually send the plays out the night before so you can try and take advantage of the early lines. I will try and get them up as soon as I can. It just depends on when I get home at night.

[hagball52]

I'll update the JM MLB page tomorrow.

[allidoiswin89]

Old shoe, were you intending on you using ##### before the unofficial plays as I did last year? Only reason I ask is because its part of your key at the bottom of the post. Doesn't matter either way

[JonEJet]

Thanks hagball

[oldshoebox72]

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 0-2
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/5/2014
Unofficial:
(B) UNDER Miami
(B) UNDER Colorado
(A) UNDER CWS (2:10 pm EST)

NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official season series record:0-0
Unofficial season series record: 2-0

Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 1-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/5/2014
Unofficial:
(B) UNDER Miami 6.5 Won
(B) UNDER Colorado 9.5 Loss
(A) UNDER CWS 8 Won

NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

[oldshoebox72]

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official season series record:0-0
Unofficial season series record: 2-0

Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 1-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/6/2014
##### UNDER Colorado (C)

NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

[oldshoebox72]

allidoiswin,
take a look at St. Louis. 2 games over by 3 or more runs, then following game is a pushed. If up coming game result of over by 3 runs or more, does this become qualified play?
thanks

[allidoiswin89]

allidoiswin,
take a look at St. Louis. 2 games over by 3 or more runs, then following game is a pushed. If up coming game result of over by 3 runs or more, does this become qualified play?
thanks

Yes it would.

Would you be able to track the units like hagball does? Your key states that ##### are unofficial plays. so I will continue to use that when I find missed plays. Also, they key says juice will post next day ***

Unofficial plays: +2 units

Also, there is another play today.

4/6
#####Arizona under *** (A)

[hagball52]

Totals Plays 3-7 (-3.85 / -4.05 units)

04/05 SFO (Bumgarner) @ LAD (Maholm) under 7 +105 loss
04/05 STL (Kelly) @ PIT (Liriano) under 6.5 +110 loss
04/05 ARI (McCarthy) @ COL (De La Rosa) over 10 +115 win
04/05 NYY (Pineda) @ TOR (Dickey) over 8.5 +105 loss
04/05 CWS (Danks) @ KAN (Chen) over 8.5 +100 loss

04/06 ARI (Miley) @ COL (Anderson) over 9.5 +105
04/06 LAA (Weaver) @ HOU (Feldman) under 8 +105
04/06 CIN (Simon) @ NYM (Niese) over 7.5 +115
04/06 STL (Wainwright) @ PIT (Volquez) over 7 -105

I did get some things cleared up yesterday about the disparity on their odds posted on the plays. 5Dimes does offer an option to buy off the posted total to get + money on an otherwise negative money play. I'll probably open an account with them this week. However, I did get a push on the STL game because I got it at u7 instead of the 6.5 so I actually gained a little traction on the unit amount. Going forward I will post their win/loss records even if I get different results. I'll just mention it if it happens but I will keep track of both unit amounts. Hopefully they'll get on a little win streak here.

P.S. I have bet every play so either way it's not going well right now.

[hagball52]

JM MLB System
2014 Official season series record 0-0 (V1)
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0
V3 system 0-0
Unofficial series 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0

Next Plays
None yet

Upcoming plays
04/08 LAA @ SEA (2 gm set for tracking purpose only)
05/16 NYM @ WAS

Notes: There are 10 possible sweeps today with 9 of them having future plays. Keep you all updated tomorrow. Several of them have future plays this month so maybe things will get rolling here.

The rules for the JM MLB system can be found in post #10 and the filters in post #11. Any results and information regarding the last 2 seasons are in posts #12, 13 and 14. Good luck all and let's make a little money this season.

[allidoiswin89]

Hagball, are you playing the Colorado game with they system you bought or mine haha

[hagball52]

Hagball, are you playing the Colorado game with they system you bought or mine haha

Yours definitely looks more favorable but it is unofficial so I'll probably play the over and cross my fingers. You still have a chance to win the (D) bet. In any case good luck

[oldshoebox72]

Yes it would.

Would you be able to track the units like hagball does? Your key states that ##### are unofficial plays. so I will continue to use that when I find missed plays. Also, they key says juice will post next day ***

Unofficial plays: +2 units

Also, there is another play today.

4/6
#####Arizona under *** (A)

I've looked at Arizona this morning, but little confused because Arizona is playing with Colorado which we are currently chasing. I didn't know that I should have start another series for Arizona.

About tracking units, the 2 systems will go undefeated for this season, it's will be 52-0, and 63-0 respectively. what's the point of keep tracking the units?

[hagball52]

Just a quick note. There were some more totals plays added to my post if any of you are interested. I edited and added them. Post #91

[Wallco99]

I've looked at Arizona this morning, but little confused because Arizona is playing with Colorado which we are currently chasing. I didn't know that I should have start another series for Arizona.

About tracking units, the 2 systems will go undefeated for this season, it's will be 52-0, and 63-0 respectively. what's the point of keep tracking the units?

Because the unit count is the most important part of the whole system, it should not be omitted.

[oldshoebox72]

I will update the system on Wednesday is the latest with full unit count. I will continue to post plays for tomorrow and Tuesday as usual.
Took the boy to tourney and come back to work for total of 16 hours yesterday. Tomorrow is the day for towing my boat home , and few relative come from oversea.
Good luck today all

[allidoiswin89]

I've looked at Arizona this morning, but little confused because Arizona is playing with Colorado which we are currently chasing. I didn't know that I should have start another series for Arizona.

About tracking units, the 2 systems will go undefeated for this season, it's will be 52-0, and 63-0 respectively. what's the point of keep tracking the units?

Each team is treated individually. Arizona is indeed a play. There will be times you have a series on the over of team a and under on team b when they are playing each other.

[oldshoebox72]

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official season series record:0-0
Unofficial season series record: 2-0

Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 1-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/6/2014
##### UNDER Colorado (C)
NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official season series record:0-0
Unofficial season series record: 4-0, +4 units

Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 2-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/6/2014
##### UNDER 9 Colorado (C) Won
##### UNDER 9 Arizona (A) Won. **allidoiswin89 pointed out that I missed this play**
NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

[oldshoebox72]

Allidoiswin89's UNDER/OVER system 2014
Official season series record:0-0
Unofficial season series record: 4-0, +4 units

Official Plays
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
Unofficial Plays
(A) 2-2
(B) 1-1
(C) 1-0
(D) 0-0

Next Play(s):

4/7/2014
No play today
NOTES:
***** Juice will be post on the following day based on "Covers" closing line. The KEY number to follow is the total.
##### Unofficial Play
Rules of the system can be found on post #41

[ok15533]

Is the thread getting cluttered with multiple systems?

So much Systems going on on this thread. I think its better to stick with ones with good track record. Some of us know how the new NBA system turned out. Its easy to lose money than to make money in playing systems. Although its for fun its better we play it safe and enjoy it. No more room for error. If their is doubt on any system please point it out. It was JM before now it seem like news system surfaces every season.

[hagball52]

Totals Plays 3-11 (-7.90 / -8.30 units)

04/06 ARI (Miley) @ COL (Anderson) over 9.5 +105 loss
04/06 LAA (Weaver) @ HOU (Feldman) under 8 +105 loss
04/06 CIN (Simon) @ NYM (Niese) over 7.5 +115 loss
04/06 STL (Wainwright) @ PIT (Volquez) over 7 -105 loss

04/07 CIN (Cingrani) @ STL (Wacha) under 6.5 even
04/07 LAA (Wilson) @ HOU (Cosart) over 8 even
04/07 TEX (Sheppers) @ BOS (Lackey) over 9 -110
04/07 TAM (Moore) @ KAN (Vargas) under 8 -110
04/07 SDG (Erlin) @ CLE (Kluber) over 8 +110
04/07 CWS (Paulino) @ COL (Lyles) over 10 +105

Dang ! Well I guess it's go long or go home. Off to a really rough start here. Note to self: If I ever pay for a service again just fade the plays. So far this is not going well so if it keeps up I may pull it. I'll give it this week and see how it goes.

[hagball52]

JM MLB System
2014 Official season series record 0-0 (V1)
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0
V3 system 0-0
Unofficial series 0-0
(A) 0-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0
V2 plays 0-0

Next Plays
None yet

Upcoming plays
04/08 LAA @ SEA (2 gm set for tracking purpose only)
05/16 NYM @ WAS

Notes: Out of the 10 possible sweeps yesterday there was only 1 and it has no future play. Wow, unreal.
New series starting today and tomorrow. Probably won't post again until Wed.

The rules for the JM MLB system can be found in post #10 and the filters in post #11. Any results and information regarding the last 2 seasons are in posts #12, 13 and 14. Good luck all and let's make a little money this season.

[Wallco99]

So much Systems going on on this thread. I think its better to stick with ones with good track record. Some of us know how the new NBA system turned out. Its easy to lose money than to make money in playing systems. Although its for fun its better we play it safe and enjoy it. No more room for error. If their is doubt on any system please point it out. It was JM before now it seem like news system surfaces every season.

The thread is fine. JM MLB has about 30-40 plays per year, so without these systems, this thread would be pretty dead most of the time. There really should be no confusion since the two added systems are both O/U systems and pretty hard to mistake for JM MLB games.

[hagball52]

Hagball, are you playing the Colorado game with they system you bought or mine haha

That's what's gonna be hard when they post a play and it goes against a system (C) or (D) bet. Systems don't always win but when a play gets to the third or fourth level it is a really strong play.