Multiple MLB Chase Systems (+250 units in 2012)

[daneault23]

The Mariners and Nats chase will continue the next time they are at home and are favored. I expect the Nats to be favored in their next home game on 4/22 and Seattle I have no idea when it will continue. It could be tomorrow (when King Felix takes the hill) or it could be weeks. I'd like to clear those chases also, I don't like pending chases!

Thanks for the reply.

[the sink]

will cinci still count?

[TheDarkKnight01]

Recap of 4/16/13

4 game chase play:
#23: Orioles -125 (125/100) for Game 1 Winner
#24: Reds -155 (155/100) for Game 1 Postponed, replay Game 1 on 4/17/13

YTD: 21-0 +2100
Game 1: 16
Game 2: 3 (#15, #21 pending)
Game 3: 1
Game 4: 1

[TheDarkKnight01]

Plays for 4/17/13

Lots of games today with one of them conflicting, here goes!

4 game chase play:
#15: Mariners -107 (279/260) for Game 2
#24: Reds -139 (139/100) for Game 1
#25: Nats -150 (150/100) for Game 1
#26: Giants +1.5 -210 (210/100) for Game 1
#27: Dodgers -255 (255/100) for Game 1
#28: Angels -121 (121/100) for Game 1
#29: Twins +1.5 -150 (150/100) for Game 1

good luck!

YTD: 21-0 +2100
Game 1: 16
Game 2: 3 (#15, #21 pending)
Game 3: 1
Game 4: 1

[the sink]

hi knight, the reds game is the new game right, not the postponed game from yesterday?

[TheDarkKnight01]

hi knight, the reds game is the new game right, not the postponed game from yesterday?

Yes, I'm counting yesterday's game as a postponed game and re-playing game 1 as a new whole game.

[Jellybeans]

Games #26 and #29 are +1.5?
If they lose, do you play game 2 as +1.5 as well?

[TheDarkKnight01]

Games #26 and #29 are +1.5?
If they lose, do you play game 2 as +1.5 as well?

If they are dogs, play +1.5. If they're favored, play the ML.

[knugen]

mariners are dogs now att piinnacle, are they still a ML play??

[TheDarkKnight01]

mariners are dogs now att piinnacle, are they still a ML play??

Interesting situation on this one since I used the closing line to backtest. If we go by backtesting results, it would be a no play since they are currently dogs. However, when I placed my bet they were favorites so I have no choice but to play it out. The choice is yours.

[TheDarkKnight01]

Anyone a NBA fan in here? I'm from LA and a huge Lakers fan, really rooting for them tonight. If they win, they get the 7 seed and draw Spurs (yes, I am a hopeful and believe we have a fighting chance). If we lose however, we will play OKC in which I think we will only get swept or lose 4-1.

On a side note, I know there have been people requesting and I have finally gotten around to it. Here it is to avoid clutter:

tinyurl.com/c7bt4e2

[Jellybeans]

Lakers here as well.
Hope they get the Spurs, make it a series, coz OKC might just sweep them lol.
Even if they had Kobe, don't think they could get past the 1st round, but gonna be rooting for them.

[Poison-Nut]

What's the tinyurl.com??????

[TheDarkKnight01]

Ya I'm rooting for them to win so we get the Spurs as well.

Poison, it's a shortcut to my t u m b l r. It will only have plays and avoids the clutter that goes along with the thread.

[Jellybeans]

Bring on the Spurs!!
Nice to win last game of the season

[808bases]

Ya I'm rooting for them to win so we get the Spurs as well.

Poison, it's a shortcut to my t u m b l r. It will only have plays and avoids the clutter that goes along with the thread.

Totally LIKE the tinyurl feature TDK. I missed the plays today. I kind of got lost in the thread.

[TheDarkKnight01]

Recap of 4/17/13

4 game chase play:
#15: Mariners -107 (279/260) for Game 2 Loser, Game 3 TBD
#24: Reds -139 (139/100) for Game 1 Winner
#25: Nats -150 (150/100) for Game 1 Winner
#26: Giants +1.5 -210 (210/100) for Game 1 Winner
#27: Dodgers -255 (255/100) for Game 1 Loser, on to Game 2 on 4/19/13
#28: Angels -121 (121/100) for Game 1 Postponed Replay Game 1 TBD
#29: Twins +1.5 -150 (150/100) for Game 1 Postponed, Replay Game 1 on 4/25/13

YTD: 24-0 +2400
Game 1: 19 (#28, #29 pending)
Game 2: 3 (#21, #27 pending)
Game 3: 1 (#15 pending)
Game 4: 1

[laca07]

TDK - Will you keep playing #15 even though Seattle ended up closing a dog and winning on the RL?

[TheDarkKnight01]

Plays for 4/18/13

4 game chase play:
#30: Toronto -111 (111/100) for Game 1
#31: Reds -170 (170/100) for Game 1

plays will also be listed on t w i t t e r . Follow me @darkknight1949

good luck!

YTD: 24-0 +2400
Game 1: 19 (#28, #29 pending)
Game 2: 3 (#21, #27 pending)
Game 3: 1 (#15 pending)
Game 4: 1

[samrock67]

Just an update on this system's performance on the RL, based on a 1-2-4-8 betting strategy

Overall Record: 22-1, +23.19 units(7 series pending)

Bet Records:
Bet 1: 14-14
Bet 2: 4-5
Bet 3: 1-4
Bet 4: 3-1

[TheDarkKnight01]

Laca, that chase requires us to play if they are favorites. If they are dogs, it is a no play. When I placed the bet, they were favored and I took them on the ML so I lost that one. If you played the RL, congrats you cleared the chase. If it was a no play for you, I suggest you play it as a Game 2 the next time it is a play.

samrock, thanks for the update man. It really reduces the juice but more than likely there will be a less winning %. It looks like at this point, the profits are the same. It'll be interesting to see if it stays that way.

[laca07]

Thanks for the clarification, TDK. BOL today.

Lakers game was crazy last night. Playoff tickets go up today!

[samrock67]

samrock, thanks for the update man. It really reduces the juice but more than likely there will be a less winning %. It looks like at this point, the profits are the same. It'll be interesting to see if it stays that way.

Right- you should expect more losses playing the RL, BUT...

1) so far it's hitting at 95.6%(22/23)- I know the sample size is small, but that's still pretty impressive
2) Based off of Stifler's system, which is also a 4-game chase and I foresee plenty of overlap, let's say we call the average loss on this system 30 units(you can tell me what the number actually is), you can lose twice as many series and your losses will still be the same. If you go conservative and use a .5-1-2-4 line, you can lose 5x as often and your losses would still be equal.
3) There is potential for the profit to be significantly greater(especially if you play the RL when the team is a dog- usually the odds are +200 or better on those games)

Just some observations. I'm curious to see how things play out as well.

[TheDarkKnight01]

Right- you should expect more losses playing the RL, BUT...

1) so far it's hitting at 95.6%(22/23)- I know the sample size is small, but that's still pretty impressive
2) Based off of Stifler's system, which is also a 4-game chase and I foresee plenty of overlap, let's say we call the average loss on this system 30 units(you can tell me what the number actually is), you can lose twice as many series and your losses will still be the same. If you go conservative and use a .5-1-2-4 line, you can lose 5x as often and your losses would still be equal.
3) There is potential for the profit to be significantly greater(especially if you play the RL when the team is a dog- usually the odds are +200 or better on those games)

Just some observations. I'm curious to see how things play out as well.

It's definitely something to monitor, thanks again for doing it. You're doing good work on Stif's RL system too, you might be on to something there.

[Itsamazing777]

Are you really 24-0? I see the dodgers lost though, so I am confused
are these the only plays you make on MLB?

[Itsamazing777]

I guess I don't understand the chase. I'm about to start my betting for the season, but I don't understand the record, when some of the plays have lost. (I know some plays will lose). Please help me understand.
i am looking to bet moneylines, to win 100 per game like you.

[TheDarkKnight01]

itsamazing, this is a 4 game chase. If it loses Game 1, it goes to Game 2 and so on up to game 4. For each game that I lose, I chase to win back the following game plus my original profit of $100. Please see post #268 for betting structure. Once a team loses Game 4 then it is considered a loss (a huge loss I might add). I hope that helps.

On a side note, looks like another two Game 1 winners today! Loving the stress free night.

[Itsamazing777]

I see

[TheDarkKnight01]

Recap of 4/18/13

4 game chase play:
#30: Toronto -111 (111/100) for Game 1 Winner
#31: Reds -170 (170/100) for Game 1 Winner

YTD: 26-0 +2600
Game 1: 21 (#28, #29 pending)
Game 2: 3 (#21, #27 pending)
Game 3: 1 (#15 pending)
Game 4: 1

[Jellybeans]

Nice

[calebepley93]

The A bets have been killin it! The haters are gonna come rolling the first series loss or two but keep doing your thing Dark Knight!

[Poison-Nut]

TDK I finally signed up for that Trumblr account, and follow you on there. It is much easier. I can just click on it and have your plays. What sucks is I have been missing your plays the last several days. I am doing a training class for work and can't get to a computer during the day. When do you usually post the plays?

[TheDarkKnight01]

Thanks guys, always feels good to clear chases early so that it's stress free.

Poison-Nut, I usually post plays around 9-10am Pacific time.

HEADS UP
Tomorrow will be Game 2 for Chase #27 on the Giants to win 3.55u. Major juice on it, not sure if line will go up or down but if you're playing along, just wanted to give you heads up.

[skyscrapers]

Good, looks like I'm gonna have some major money on SF tomorrow. Stifler has a D bet on SD fade as well.

[knugen]

Great night, txh fir doing this TDK!

BTW i cant see the #27 game 2 at my spreadsheet, were game 1 also on Giants?