[Iced]

Thanks Gonzo and Dew for the complements, I appreciate it.

[ink]

keep them coming Iced

[Iced]

keep them coming Iced

Josh Willingham just hit a two-run homer in the first off King Felix boys, great way to start the game!

[ink]

Josh Willingham just hit a two-run homer in the first off King Felix boys, great way to start the game!

[Iced]

Friday, April 1, 2011
(1x) Houston Astros (+1 RL) +172 ----- PUSH
(1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +163 ----- WIN (+1.63x)
(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +112 ----- WIN (+1.12x)
(1x) Florida Marlins (-1.5 RL) +130 --- WIN (+1.3x)

Adding:
(1x) Toronto Blue Jays (ML) -119 ----- WIN (+1x)

Adding:
(1x) San Francisco Giants (ML) +110 ----- LOSS (-1x)

(1x) Oakland Athletics (ML) -110 ----- LOSS (-1.1x)

These two west coast teams combined for seven errors and an over-abundance of mental retardation. Buster Posey has bases loaded... strikes out and flings bat into the stands. Chone Figgins gets a home run against the A's, he's had nine total home runs the past three years. Jonathan Sanchez commits an error that would have ended the inning, but instead allows two runs to score, which ended up being the deciding factor in the game. Very pathetic showing. I think I capped these two games well, but I obviously didn't take into account the seven errors, five of which came from the A's -- an opening day record.


2011 MLB Record: 5-3-1 (+2.95 units)

[stikymess]

These two west coast teams combined for seven errors and an over-abundance of m3ental retardation. Buster Posey has bases loaded... strikes out and flings bat into the stands. Chone Figgins gets a home run against the A's, he's had nine total home runs the past three years. Jonathan Sanchez commits an error that would have ended the inning, but instead allows two runs to score, which ended up being the deciding factor in the game. Very pathetic showing. I think I capped these two games well, but I obviously didn't take into account the seven errors, five of which came from the A's -- an opening day record.


2011 MLB Record: 5-3-1 (+2.95 units)

Last two games tough but that's baseball. Bullpens sucking right now. Still in the positive keep it up ice

[Iced]

Thanks stiky.

April 2, 2011
(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) -114

This is the only play that has jumped out at me so far. Colby Lewis pitches well in the beginning of the season (2.76 ERA in April over the past three years) and he pitches well against the Red Sox, with a 3.12 ERA lifetime ERA against the Red Sox. The current Red Sox lineup only has a .188 batting average against Lewis. John Lackey, on the other hand, pitches poorly at the beginning of the season (4.50 ERA in April over the past three years) and he pitches poorly against the Rangers, with a 5.74 lifetime ERA against them and a 6.11 lifetime ERA at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The current Rangers lineup has an impressive .303 batting average against Lackey. If Lackey gets pounded early, which I expect to happen, the Red Sox will have to use their sub-par bullpen, and that will only mean more bad news for the Red Sox. Take the Rangers and the slight chalk here to win back-to-back games against the Red Sox.

I will probably add more plays tomorrow, but this is probably my favorite play of the day. I don't think I will bet more than one unit per game until the season finally kicks into full gear. The same goes with totals, they're just too unpredictable right now for me to bet on, I need more data.

Good luck today boys.

2011 MLB Record: 5-3-1 (+2.95 units)

[ink]

gl today!

[TPowell]

[Iced]

Thanks ink and TPowell. Yesterday was a good day profit-wise but the last two games were a bit of a disappointment.

Adding:
(1x) Cleveland Indians (ML) +118
(1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +170

The Indians are a solid dog pick. I don't really think that the Bucs will win this game, as opposed to last game where I was confident in their victory. However, the Cubs are getting way too much respect. I'll take a +170 dog against the Cubbies any day.

Will be adding more later.

[Iced]

Another error to lose the game for me. Five runs in the eighth inning, jeez.

These bad beats are starting to piss me the fuk off.

Bad beat record: 0-2-1

Adding:
(1x) Cleveland Indians (ML) +118 ----- LOSS (-1x)
(1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +170 ----- LOSS (-1x)

2011 MLB Record: 5-5-1 (+0.95x)

[Iced]

Adding:
(1x) Milwaukee Brewers (ML) +105
(1x) Arizona Diamondbacks (ML) +145

[stikymess]

Another error to lose the game for me. Five runs in the eighth inning, jeez. These bad beats are starting to piss me the fuk off. Bad beat record: 0-2-1 2011 MLB Record: 5-5-1 (+0.95x)

That 5 spot in the eight was horrible. I guess bullpens are behind to start the season. With you on the Brewers.

[Iced]

Yeah, it was rough. I'm beginning the season off with a few bad beats due to errors, blown leads, and bullpen trouble. Hopefully I can get a reversal of luck and come out on top on some of these bad beats. I'm still up for the season, the bad beats still hurt though.

[Iced]

Rangers up, Brewers down, and DBacks tied up.

Adding:
(1x) Seattle Mariners (ML) +165

[Iced]

Saturday, April 2, 2011
(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) -114 ----- WIN (+1x)

Adding:
(1x) Cleveland Indians (ML) +118 ----- LOSS (-1x)
(1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +170 ----- LOSS (-1x)

Adding:
(1x) Milwaukee Brewers (ML) +105 ----- LOSS (-1x)
(1x) Arizona Diamondbacks (ML) +145 ----- LOSS (-1x)

Adding:
(1x) Seattle Mariners (ML) +165 ----- WIN (+1.65x)

Very disappointing day. I only had one play I really liked today and that was the Rangers. I probably should have played them for more than one unit and dropped another game or two completely. I'm hoping for a strong bounce-back on Sunday. I have a few strong leans, I'll probably post my initial plays soon.


2011 MLB Record: 7-7-1 (+1.6x)

[pacocn]

looking forward to your leans u were spot on with the rangers

[Iced]

Thanks paco.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

(2x) Florida Marlins (ML) -132
This is my favorite play of the day and it's my first play over one unit for the 2011 MLB season. After dropping his fast ball below 89 MPH for the 2010 season, Javier Vazques has restored his velocity and has been consistently hitting in the 89-91 MPH range this spring. This Mets line-up only has a .206 average against Vazquez. Over the past three years, Vazquez has done considerably better in day games than night games, with an ERA over half of a point better during the day. Vazquez's ERA against the Mets the past three years is 2.70. Moving from the hostile AL East to the not as batting-heavy division of the NL East should help Vazques's numbers this year. RA Dickey has been absolutely pathetic the past three years in April (6.00 ERA) and during day games (5.02 ERA during the day, 3.37 ERA at night). Dickey's ERA against the Marlins the past three years is 7.36 and the Marlins line-up has a very impressive batting average against Dickey of .380. Dickey had the best season of his career last year, but I expect him to come back to Earth this year. This is the most chalk I've laid thus far this season, but I'm very confident in the Marlins here.

(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +128
I'm going with the Rangers for the third straight day here this Sunday. Matt Harrison, the Ranger's starting pitcher has had an impressive spring training. His velocity has improved and he has perfected some of his off-speed pitches. This Red Sox line-up is stacked with left-handed hitters, and Matt Harrison should be able to counter-act that since he is a left-handed pitcher himself. The current Red Sox lineup has a not-so-impressive batting average against Harrison of .233. Clay Buchholz did not ever pitch for more than four innings this entire spring, so there is no guarantee that Buchholz will be able to go deep into this game. Buchholz has a losing record in April throughout his career and the current Rangers lineup has a pretty good batting average against Buchholz of .303. I think that fading the Red Sox against left-handed pitchers will be a good strategy this year when the match-up calls for it, and this is one of those match-ups. The public will be pounding the Red Sox here figuring that the Red Sox can't be swept, and because Clay Buchholz is a more recognized name than Matt Harrison. Stick with the Rangers dog play here to sweep the Red Sox.

I might have some more plays, but these are my favorite plays for this Sunday. I'm hoping to get back on pace with another profitable day here. Good luck today everyone.

2011 MLB Record: 7-7-1 (+1.6 units)

[gilbert91016]

Bol iced I'm on Marlins -1

[stikymess]

Good luck Ice tailing with Marlins.

[GonzosDirtyTrail]

I like the Marlins as well, best of luck everyone.

[Saunders FTW]

Gl today Iced!

[tokio]

[Iced]

Sunday, April 3, 2011
(2x) Florida Marlins (ML) -132 ----- LOSS (-2.64x)
(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +128 ----- WIN (+1.28x)

I don't often see games that I like as much as the Marlins/Mets game this early in the season. Unfortunately, the game just didn't go our way. The Marlins had three more hits the Mets but they had seven less runs. The Marlins also had three errors to the Mets' zero. I've lost a few games so far in the season backing teams who have had multiple errors. I usually don't consider defense when I handicap my games, but I think I might have to take a closer look at defense, especially this early in the season when teams are still getting into the swing of things.

I bet on the Rangers against the Red Sox every single game of the series, winning all of them. I'm slightly surprised with how this game played out -- Clay Buchholz gave up four solo shots this game when he only gave up nine all of last year. I was expecting more singles and doubles with some walks sprinkled in. I'll take the four dingers though. Matt Harrison, the big lefty for the Rangers, had a very good game just like I expected. I think the Sox will have a tough time against lefties all year.

I see a lot of guys on here already down a bunch of units and starting to chase, which is unfortunate. This is only the fourth day of the season, there are still over 2000 games left. Keeping your unit size between one and three units and playing a lot of dogs and slight favorites can make a baseball very profitable even if you just hit around 50%.

I don't have any more plays for today, and I'm currently looking at Monday's games. I will most likely be playing my first total of the season, and it might be for two units if the lines-makers give me a good number. There is another team total I have a slight lean towards as of right now, and I might make a play on that for a unit or half a unit. The season is young guys, there's still plenty of games left, and plenty of profit to be made.

Thanks for the points, nominations, comments, and everything else guys, I really appreciate it. Sorry I let you down with the Marlins, that was frustrating for me personally because I know that some of you tailed me there. I'm still profitable for the season though, and I expect to make a lot more profit as usual as the season goes on.

2011 MLB Record: 8-8-1 (+0.24 units)

[Iced]

Monday, April 4, 2011

(1x) Baltimore Orioles (ML) -118
The Orioles are coming off an impressive sweep of the Rays and the Tigers are coming off a two-to-one series loss against the Yanks. The O's should be plenty energized for their first home game of the season. Rick Porcello has been poor against the Tigers in his career, the Tigers have a batting average of .351 against Porcello. Away from home, Porcello has an ERA of 4.79 as compared to 4.10 at home. In Porcello's two year career, he has been absolutely terrible in April -- with a 7.19 ERA. Porcello finished his last spring training game by giving up five runs in five innings to the Nationals. In Jake Arrieta's one career start against the Tigers, he was stellar -- with a 1.42 ERA and the current Tigers lineup only has a .217 average against Arrieta. Arietta has a 1.93 career ERA against righties and 7.04 career ERA against lefties -- and the Tigers only have two left-handed batters, their crappy catcher and second basement (Avila and Rhymes). Arrieta might be a strong play for me throughout the season against lineups lacking in left-handed batters. The Detroit Tigers are an absolutely terrible on the road, they had the fifth-worst road record in the whole MLB last season even though they finished 16th overall. The Orioles played better at home than on the road. I think Buck Showalter continues his impressive run with the Orioles and starts the season 4-0.

Total Leans (not playing totals this early in the season):
- Tigers/Orioles OVER 9.5
- Pirates/Cardinals OVER 9

Good luck today everyone.
2011 MLB Record: 8-8-1 (+0.24 units)

[stikymess]

Good luck Monday Ice. The bad beats will even out during the season. Keep plugging away.

[ink]

gl today iced

[Saunders FTW]

Good win iced

[GonzosDirtyTrail]

Good call on the Orioles, Iced!

[GonzosDirtyTrail]

Looking at any of the night games?

[Iced]

Thanks guys. I have two night plays -- I'm doing my write-ups right now, both are dog plays. I wouldn't recommend necessarily blindly tailing me this early in the season though, as I usually limit my bets to about one unit and occasionally a two unit play -- and these plays are pure handicapping with none of the system being used. I have a computer system that I use after I get a sufficient sample size, and that usually occurs at least two to three weeks into the season. So once possibly mid-to-late April arrives and definitely May is when I start to heat up. The system produces leans and confidence percentages for each game -- and I then personally handicap the games to pick out the best values, and this is when I start to bet more units. Night plays will be up soon.

[Iced]

Monday, April 4, 2011
(1x) Baltimore Orioles (ML) -118 ----- WIN (+1x)

Adding:
(1x) Minnesota Twins (ML) +151
I really like the value from the Twins here. The Yanks are a big public favorite (64% on the Yanks), which is why I waited for the line to move from last night. The line opened at Twins +135 and I just now got it at +151. Scott Baker is a 6 year veteran who will be ready to pitch under the lights during Monday Night baseball on ESPN. The Yankees have only been average against Scott Baker throughout his career, and I think that should be enough for this game. Ivan Nova has pitched a mere 42 innings in his career and now he is forced into the Yankees starting rotation because of their lack of depth. In Nova's very short MLB career, he has a 5.50 ERA at night and a 3.75 ERA during the day -- indicating he gets the jitters when under pressure. Take the more experienced pitcher and the value here, go with the Twins. And yes, this write-up wasn't my best, sorry I'm dealing with a few different things rights now.

I'm getting this write-up in now because the game starts in fifteen minutes, I'll be back in a few.

2011 MLB Record: 9-8-1 (+1.24 units)

[Saunders FTW]

Lets do it ICED!

[Iced]

Adding:

(1x) Seattle Mariners (ML) +146
I started the season betting for the Rangers against the Red Sox in every single game of the sweep. Coming off this emotional high, I don't see the Rangers keeping it up against the Mariners. Erik Bedard is coming off a strong spring training with a 3.15 ERA. In the previous two seasons Bedard has pitched, he has done exceptionally well in the first two months of the season -- with a 1.80 ERA in March and a 2.47 ERA in April. He also has a pretty good career average against this Rangers line-up of .255. The Rangers have traditionally done worse against lefties as well. In Derek Holland's limited MLB experience (only 89 innings pitched) he has a staggering 5.52 ERA. The Mariners should be able to score on Holland, and the Mariners have done well against lefties in the past. I'm again taking the value and the veteran pitcher here.

(1x) Pirates/Cardinals OVER [9] +110
I know I said I didn't want to play any totals this early in the season, but this game is looking nice. The Cards have a career batting average against Charlie Morton of .479 and the Bucs have a career batting average against Kyle Lohse of .389. Morton has a career ERA against the Cards of 7.77 and Lohse has 4.58 ERA against the Bucs over the past three years. Charlie Morton even has a 12.57 ERA in April for his career. And last but not least, there is the wind. The wind is blowing into centerfield at 19 MPH, which will definitely help to carry some balls. I like this even more since I'm getting plus-money on it.

That's it for tonight, good luck everyone.
2011 MLB Record: 9-8-1 (+1.24 units)

[stikymess]

Keep it up, nice winner on the O's! Thanks