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Man City vs. Real Madrid Odds, Picks, Predictions: Guardiola Targets Elusive European Crown

Anthony Wootton

Last Updated: May 17, 2023 12:03 PM EDT • 3 min 2 sec read.

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola gives instructions to Kyle Walker during a Premier League match at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England. Photo Ashley Western / Colorsport / DPPI via AFP.
Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola gives instructions to Kyle Walker during a Premier League match at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England. Photo Ashley Western / Colorsport / DPPI via AFP.

The first leg of the Champions League's blockbuster semifinal between Real Madrid and Manchester City ended 1-1. Madrid shut down Erling Haaland at the Bernabeu last week, but will they keep the Norwegian at bay in Manchester? Check out our Man City vs. Real Madrid picks based on the best Champions League odds.

Real Madrid had the luxury of resting some of their key players for Saturday’s 1-0 win over Getafe in La Liga.

Meanwhile, City played at nearly full strength in their pursuit of the Premier League title and won 3-0 at Everton. They’re now one win away from being crowned champions of England for the third straight season, but they've had 24 fewer hours than their Spanish opponents to recover for this second-leg match. 

City manager Pep Guardiola said his legacy at the club will be defined by whether he delivers a Champions League trophy. WIll this finally be the year? 

Here is our best Man City vs. Real Madrid Champions League semifinal second-leg pick (odds via BetMGM, Caesars, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Man City vs. Real Madrid pick

Both teams to score, City win (+190 via BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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City fans can feel confident heading into this match. Under Pep Guardiola, the club has won three of four matches with Madrid. They have a 100% home record against the current reigning European champions under his stewardship. Real Madrid are winless in their last four visits to the Etihad Stadium. 

No team has travelled to the Etihad in the Champions League and won since Lyon in September 2018. City are on a 25-game unbeaten streak at home in the competition (W23, D2). 

As we saw in the first leg, both teams are capable of scoring in this contest. City are the tournament’s leading scorers (27) and Real Madrid are tied for second (26). In the first leg, Real’s xG was 0.7, City’s was 0.5. With this tie so finely poised, the match will open up as soon as one of these sides finds the net. 

Erling Haaland has scored 35 goals in 28 Champions League appearances and is this season’s top scorer with 12. Real’s Vinícius Júnior, who scored in the first leg, has been directly involved in 12 goals in 11 Champions League appearances in this season’s competition, scoring seven goals and providing five assists. The Brazilian also leads all players in the tournament this term for involvement in open play sequences that end in goals (14) and shots (76).  

With Benzema leading the charge, Real will pose a serious threat to City and look likely to score, but Guardiola’s home record is so good they’ll be too strong for Los Blancos in this match.

Man City vs. Real Madrid best odds

BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel (+190)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Both teams to score, City winBoth teams to score, City winBoth teams to score, City winBoth teams to score, City winBoth teams to score, City win
+160+190+190+190+185

There hasn’t been much movement on this play in the past 24 hours. The biggest adjustment has been with PointsBet, which cut the odds from +190 to +185. The total is as low as -200 at PointsBet for the Over. The best price is -170 via DraftKings and FanDuel for Over 2.5 goals. The books are expecting goals in this match, as are we. 

Manchester City are -170 on the moneyline. Their home form makes them red-hot favorites for this tie. Real Madrid’s odds to win SU are a massive +425 at DraftKings. 

This highlights the excellent value on this play. It’s a game City should win and the stats are stacked in our favor.

Man City vs. Real Madrid game info

  • Date: Wednesday, May 17, 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS, Paramount+
  • Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester
  • Weather: 57 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-mph winds

Man City-Real Madrid pick made 05/15/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Anthony Wootton
Anthony Wootton has worked in the sports industry for more than 20 years. He’s reported on Premier League games for BBC radio and continues to cover the league, as well as other high-profile soccer competitions such as the UEFA Champions League. He is a founding member of the NFL Writers Network with NFL Europe, having covered every NFL London game since 2014 and multiple Super Bowls. Anthony has also reported on the Germany games in Munich and Frankfurt. His book, "The Greatest American Football Story That Has Never Been Told", has been an Amazon bestseller for American Football and Sports History publications. He is a member of the Professional Football Researchers Association. Anthony started writing for betting companies in 2018, working with some of the world’s largest gambling sites. He is an avid bettor on soccer and football, using multiple apps as he targets the best value on props and plays. Anthony is the host of the "TransAtlantic Sports Show" podcast and runs a weekly parlay feature on his YouTube channel throughout the NFL season. He has appeared on leading international podcasts such as the BBC World Service’s Sportshour, the Nat Coombs Show, and the Irish NFL Show. Anthony holds a bachelor’s degree in media from Sheffield Hallam University.