Ipswich vs. Liverpool Prediction, Picks & Odds for Friday's Premier League Match
It's been a tough start to the season for the Reds, but my Ipswich vs. Liverpool prediction breaks down why they should finally get in the win column on Friday. After opening the season with back-to-back draws, Liverpool is lined as a -182 betting favorite on the three-way moneyline.
But my Premier League best bets can find better ways to approach the game, which gets underway from Portman Road in Ipswich at 3 p.m. ET (USA Network).
⚽ Ipswich vs. Liverpool predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Over 16.5 shots | -120 via bet365 | 0.6 units to profit 0.5 units |
| Liverpool Over 18.5 shots | +162 via bet365 | 0.4 units to profit 0.65 units |
| Florian Wirtz to record 3+ shots | +137 via bet365 | 0.25 units to profit 0.34 units |
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💰 Ipswich vs. Liverpool best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Liverpool Over 16.5 shots (-120) and Liverpool Over 18.5 shots (+162)
I'm running a two-rung ladder as my best bet for this game, splitting one unit between the two wagers (0.6 units on Over 16.5 and 0.4 units on Over 18.5). Liverpool's second game produced only 13 shots for the Reds, but my projections here still land closer to 19-20 for this game.
Early-season figures show Liverpool posting a 64.9% possession mark with 28.5 box touches per game, and their 6.6 PPDA points to sustained territorial pressure. Ipswich posted a shocking win over Sunderland in their opener, but I expect the Liverpool game to more closely resemble the battering they took from Manchester United last weekend.
It doesn't have to be a five-goal, 33-shot throttling for both legs to hit, but that type of performance certainly makes it seem like this should be an excellent matchup for Liverpool to produce volume.
🆚 Who will win Ipswich vs. Liverpool?
This is finally the game that Liverpool picks up all three points. Liverpool's press is relentless, and should keep Ipswich pinned in their own half. And that's not an unusual position for a team that has garnered just 38.7% possession across its first two games, ceding 62 touches in its box. Liverpool has the skill to take advantage of that kind of defensive inadequacy.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2, Ipswich 0
🔥 More Ipswich vs. Liverpool expert picks
Florian Wirtz to record 3+ shots (+137)
Wirtz has looked like a reenergized player in his second year with Liverpool, shooting first and looking for passes second (although he did pick up his first assist of the season last game).
This play goes hand-in-hand with my best bets for the game, as Wirtz putting up three shots falling well within the scope of my shot projections for the Reds. Liverpool's territorial dominance, and Ipswich's allowing significant shot and box-touch volume, should be a favorable matchup for the Liverpool midfielder.
This price (+137) requires only 42% to break even, but I see this closer to the 50% (+100) range, and we don't need to rely on Liverpool's scoring for it to cash.
⚖️ Ipswich vs. Liverpool key stats
| Ipswich | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0-1 | 0-2-0 |
| Home/Away Record | 1-0-0 home | 0-1-0 away |
| Recent form (all comps) | WWL | DD |
| Goals for | 4 | 4 |
| xG | 3.86 | 4.73 |
| Goals against | 6 | 4 |
| xGA | 5.44 | 3.88 |
| Average possession | 38.7% | 64.9% |
📊 Ipswich vs. Liverpool odds
🆚 Ipswich vs. Liverpool projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Ipswich vs. Liverpool; subject to change:
| Ipswich Town (4-2-3-1) | Liverpool (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| K. Scherpen (GK) | Alisson (GK) |
| L. Davis (D) | M. Kerkez (D) |
| I. Diop (D) | J. Jacquet (D) |
| J. Greaves (D) | V. van Dijk (D) |
| D. O'Shea (D) | J. Frimpong (D) |
| S. Lukic (M) | D. Szoboszlai (M) |
| M. Nunez (M) | R. Gravenberch (M) |
| D. Maeda (M) | C. Gakpo (M) |
| J. Enciso (M) | F. Wirtz (M) |
| A. Fatawu (M) | V. Munoz (M) |
| Emersonn (F) | A. Isak (F) |
📺 How to watch Ipswich vs. Liverpool
- Date: Friday, Sept. 4
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Portman Road (Ipswich, England)
- TV/Streaming: USA Network
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