Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's Premier League Match
My Aston Villa vs. Manchester City prediction for Saturday morning expects the hosts to put up more than a fight than many would expect, but it's tough sledding against a team sitting undefeated in domestic play.
Man City is a -163 moneyline betting favorite on the three-way line to improve to 8-0-0 ahead of action from Villa Park in Birmingham. Play gets underway at 7:30 a.m. ET, airing on USA Network and Universo.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa Over 11.5 shots | -120 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.42 units |
| Aston Villa Asian Handicap +1 | -121 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.42 units |
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Aston Villa vs. Manchester City best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Aston Villa Over 11.5 shots (-120 via bet365)
Villa's shot production has ticked up as the season has gone on, comfortably clearing this line in three straight with 15, 20, and 15 shots. And, importantly, those performances didn't come in games where they were chasing: Villa led against Tottenham and Newcastle, and was level with Brentford for almost the entire match. In a situation where they're likely to be chasing against the league leaders, the impetus to shoot will be even greater.
Nicolas Jackson will run in the channels that open behind Cityzens' press, with Buendia able to gain possession in the defensive hand and release the young striker into space. If Maatsen starts, his overlapping runs will provide another outlet option.
I expect City to control more of the ball, but even with their shooting suppression I expect Villa to get to 12 with transitional opportunities, second balls, and occasional spells of pressure.
Play to: Over 11.5 I would play to -125; at that point, I'd investigate the Over 12.5 market (+125) for a quarter unit
🆚 Who will win Aston Villa vs. Manchester City?
Despite recent improvements from the Villans, City is deserving of their record. Manchester will control possession, and even in a competitive match, has enough finishing quality to get over the hump on the road.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2, Aston Villa 1
More Aston Villa vs. Manchester City expert picks
Aston Villa Asian Handicap +1 (-121 via bet365)
Some of City's underlying performances, coupled with Villa's recent improvements and comforts of home, suggest this one might be more competitive than many will expect. Opta's expected-points have City on just 13.2 instead of the 21 they have from seven straight wins, indicating that perhaps that run of wins overstates the actual control they've exerted in games.
Jackson's movement providing a threat behind the initial press and open places for Villa to take advantage of space behind advancing full-backs. Rather than allowing City to commit the whole squad forward they'll have to cope with that defensively.
Villa doesn't need to dominate possession, or beat the visitors. In the Asian Handicap market a Villa win or draw is a win, and a one-goal loss is a push and you get refunded.
Play to: This range is about it for this market, I'd go to maybe -125 but that's it. Only a half unit, and I'm not interested in chasing better odds at +0.75.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City key stats
All stats below are for the Premier League season unless otherwise noted.
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2-3 | 7-0-0 |
| Home/Away Record | 0-1-2 home | 3-0-0 away |
| Recent form (all comps) | WWWDWWW | WWWLWW |
| Goals for | 7 | 19 |
| xG | 8.49 | 15.12 |
| Goals against | 11 | 7 |
| xGA | 10.96 | 10.06 |
| Average possession | 47.4% | 64.3% |
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City odds
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Aston Villa vs. Man City; subject to change:
| Aston Villa (4-2-3-1) | Man City (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Suzuki (GK) | Donnarumma (GK) |
| Cash (D) | Khusanov (D) |
| Lindelof (D) | Dias (D) |
| Torres (D) | Guehi (D) |
| Maatsen (D) | Gvardiol (D) |
| Kamara (M) | Fernandez (M) |
| Gomes (M) | Anderson (M) |
| McGinn (M) | Ndiaye (M) |
| Barkley (M) | Cherki (M) |
| Buendia (M) | Doku (M) |
| Jackson (F) | Haaland (F) |
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City injuries
Aston Villa:
- Johan Manzambi (calf) - questionable
- Aaron Wan-Bissaka (hamstring) - out
- Matteo Ruggeri (hamstring) - out
- Amadou Onana (knee) - out
Manchester City:
- Matheus Nunes (general discomfort) - questionable
- Nico O'Reilly (back) - questionable
- Mateo Kovacic (knock) - questionable
- Antoine Semenyo (knee) - out
How to watch Aston Villa vs. Manchester City
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 24
- Kickoff: 7:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Villa Park (Birmingham, England)
- TV/Streaming: USA Network, Universo
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