Ole Miss vs. Texas Prediction: Week 8 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Oct. 24)
No. 19 Texas has lost two straight games after spending two weeks as the nation's top-ranked team, and it looks to avoid a third straight loss when hosting No. 7 Ole Miss. Even though the Longhorns have won four consecutive home games against ranked opponents, my Ole Miss vs. Texas prediction expects this to be a tight matchup, with the road underdogs covering the spread.
Kickoff from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday (ABC). Texas is a 3.5-point betting favorite.
Ole Miss vs. Texas picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 8 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss +3.5 | -114 via FanDuel | 1 unit to profit 0.88 units |
| Over 53.5 | -115 via DraftKings | 1 unit to profit 0.87 units |
Picks submitted: Oct. 22 at 9:15 a.m.ET.
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.75 units
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Ole Miss vs. Texas prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Ole Miss +3.5 (-114 via FanDuel)
Over the last three seasons, Texas is 16-6 against AP top-25 teams. But each of its last three games this season has been decided by exactly three points, and that makes getting Ole Miss at anything more than a field goal a great value play, even if the lookahead line on this game was much higher at -8.5.
Texas hasn’t scored more than 24 points in four of its last five games and will likely need to get its offense going against a Rebels squad that has scored 28+ in every game.
I’m worried that head coach Steve Sarkisian will have a short leash with Arch Manning after being critical of his starting quarterback to the media. So while the Ole Miss defense has allowed 33 plays of 20 or more yards (t-121st) and ranks 116th Ole Miss 116th in 20+ yard pass plays allowed, Texas isn’t built to expose that weakness. The Longhorns have totaled 19 plays of 20+ yards on offense (126th).
📡 SBR Edge: Ole Miss can make the Longhorns offense one-dimensional
Ole Miss held Missouri to 39 rush yards on 26 carries. It looks to similarly contain Texas' running back duo of Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown, who have combined for 3.6 yards per carry (119th).
Colin Simmons' potential absence could loom large
Texas’ standout edge rusher Colin Simmons left last week’s loss to Florida with a lower-leg injury. A year ago, he led the SEC in sacks (12) and pressures (51), and even tied a school record with five sacks in a game this year.
Largely because of Simmons’ prowess, the Longhorns pressure quarterbacks on nearly one-third of their dropbacks. However, Ole Miss was already built to negate that strength, as its offensive line allows pressure on 17% of dropbacks (top-3).
The Rebels already attempt passes at a top-12 rate and rank fourth in FBS while gaining five or more yards on more than half of their offensive plays. Since they already lead the country in red zone touchdown rate (88%), that gives Texas even more trouble trying to keep pace in scoring while potentially missing its best defensive player.
Play to: +3, pass at +2.5 or lower and play the Ole Miss moneyline instead
Score prediction: Ole Miss 28, Texas 27
Live Ole Miss vs. Texas odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Ole Miss vs. Texas page.
Ole Miss vs. Texas opening odds
- Moneyline: Ole Miss +130 | Texas -160
- Spread: Ole Miss +3.5 (-118) | Texas -3.5 (-102)
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-108) | Under 52.5 (-110)
Ole Miss vs. Texas weather
Weather will not be a factor as temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s at kickoff with just a 7% chance of precipitation.
Latest Ole Miss vs. Texas injuries
- Ole Miss: Edwin Joseph (S) — OUT (ankle)
- Ole Miss: Terez Davis (LT) — Questionable
- Ole Miss: Brycen Sanders (C) — Questionable
- Texas: Colin Simmons (EDGE) — OUT (ankle)
- Texas: Richard Wesley (EDGE) — OUT (ankle)
- Texas: Hollywood Smothers (RB) — Doubtful (shoulder)
How to watch Ole Miss vs. Texas: Week 8
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 24
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
- TV/Streaming: ABC
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