Eurovision Odds & Favorites 2025: Sweden Still on Top After First Semifinal
The 2025 Eurovision Song Contest has officially begun, with its beats that range from soulful to headbanging, and the colors, costumes, and dancing that ooze fun, and one of our best sports betting sites is offering Eurovision odds.
The first semifinal was held yesterday, with 10 countries qualifying for the grand final on Saturday. Unsurprisingly, the betting favorite Sweden moved on with ease.
However, Austria's ascent continues, and the Netherlands' odds are shortening too after the Dutch also advanced, as is also the case for Estonia after a strong showing leading to advancement.
The next semifinal takes place tomorrow with 10 more finalists decided.
📊 Eurovision odds 2025
The Eurovision chances to win the song contest in 2025 are from Kalshi.
| Country | Probability (via Kalshi) |
|---|---|
| Sweden | 44% |
| Austria | 24% |
| Netherlands | 7% |
| France | 6% |
| Estonia | 5% |
| Israel | 5% |
| Finland | 4% |
| Albania | 2% |
| Armenia | 1% |
| Germany | 1% |
Here are some observations following the first semifinal round:
- A clear two-country race is emerging by the odds, with Sweden and Austria far out in front as the only two nations getting a 24% chance or better before a significant drop
- Sweden is still comfortably in front of Austria in that top tier, but the Swedes are trading 13% lower through Kalshi after the semifinal
- Beyond those two dominant countries, Estonia rose up notably, and it's now trading 3% higher
- The Netherlands has been climbing too, moving from a 3.33% before its semifinal appearance to now 7%
🥇 Eurovision odds favorite
🇸🇪 Sweden Eurovision odds (44%)
Sweden is just one year removed from winning Europe's song contest. That's when Loreen took home the honor for her country with "Tattoo."
Now KAJ is representing the Swedes with the stage-thumping banger "Bara Badu Bastu," which translates to "let's take a sauna."
Sweden is a Eurovision powerhouse and is tied with Ireland for the most wins (seven) in the history of a competition that's been going since 1956. But unlike Ireland, the success of the Swedes has been more recent, with three of the nation's triumphs coming since 2012.
However, Sweden could face a challenge from the fast-rising Austria, with that country's odds shortening dramatically after moving from a 5% chance in March to 26% now.
Best odds: 44% via Kalshi
$10 Bonus to Trade on NBA Playoffs
Terms and conditions apply
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
👀 Eurovision country to watch
🇳🇱 Netherlands Eurovision odds (7%)
Although there are some dominant countries in Eurovision like Sweden and France, long shots frequently ascend the ranks, too. We only need to glance back to last year when Switzerland was getting +700 odds (12.50% probability) entering the final after the field had been reduced, and Nemo's hit "The Code" still eventually prevailed.
Now we look to the Netherlands, which has moved from receiving a chance just higher than 3% prior to the semifinals to now trading at 7%. And similar to Sweden, the Netherlands boasts an established history of success at this event after winning it five times, with the last in 2019.
Best odds: 7% via Kalshi
📜 Recent Eurovision winners
| Year | Country | Artist | Song |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Switzerland | Nemo | The Code |
| 2023 | Sweden | Loreen | Tattoo |
| 2022 | Ukraine | Kalush Orchestra | Stefania |
| 2021 | Italy | Maneskin | Zitti E Buoni |
| 2019 | Netherlands | Duncan Laurence | Arcade |
| 2018 | Israel | Toy | Netta |
| 2017 | Portugal | Salvador Sobral | Amar Pelos Dois |
| 2016 | Ukraine | Jamala | 1944 |
| 2015 | Sweden | Mans Zelmerlow | Heroes |
| 2014 | Austria | Conchita Wurst | Rise Like a Phoenix |
*Eurovision wasn't held during 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic
❓Eurovision odds FAQ
What is Eurovision?
Eurovision is an international song contest in which each participating country submits an original song. It's been running since 1956.
This year, 37 countries submitted entries, with 31 moving on to the semifinals.
Which country is the favorite to win Eurovision this year?
Sweden remains the favorite after the first semifinal round while getting a 44% chance through Kalshi, with Austria second at 26%.
Which country won Eurovision last year?
Switzerland won Eurovision last year with "The Code" by Nemo. It was a significant upset, as the country entered the final round getting odds as long as +700 (an implied probability of 12.50%), while Croatia sat around -130 (56.52%).
Where will Eurovision be held this year?
Eurovision will be held in Basel, Switzerland.
When is Eurovision this year?
The two semifinals for Eurovision will be held on May 13 and 15, with the final on May 17.
How does judging for Eurovision work?
Judging is split between a jury of music professionals and the public. The latter can submit their vote through a phone call, text message, or through the official contest app.
🎶 Best Eurovision betting sites
Want to bet on Eurovision 2025? Check out the best sports betting apps and best sportsbook promos for the competition:
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related Articles
