Top Picks to Make or Miss 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs: Give the Devils Their Due
The nature of hockey, with bouncing pucks and injuries lurking around every corner, usually means teams suddenly drop from being playoff contenders. Let's look at the top picks to make or miss the playoffs in 2022-23.
Injuries might be the biggest factor when assessing which teams could miss the playoffs. The Vegas Golden Knights looked like a sure thing to reach the 2021-22 postseason, and they had never missed. But then a series of injuries to key players made the hill too steep to climb.
As for teams trying to make the jump into the playoffs, it helps to be younger with a core ready to take the next step. Decent underlying numbers help too, providing a sign the team is playing competitively.
Also, a hot goaltender could propel a squad into the postseason, just as a subpar one could cause a team to miss.
Here are six NHL teams that offer value to make or miss the playoffs (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars, and PointsBet).
To Make Playoffs
Devils (+220 via PointsBet)
The Devils finished with 63 points in 2021-22, 37 points out of a playoff spot. It's a big ask for them to reach the postseason.
However, New Jersey ranked 18th in five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempt percentage and 15th in expected goals percentage in 2021-22. The worst goaltending in the Eastern Conference was a competitive team's undoing.
Injuries played a part as well, so if the Devils can stay healthy and the goaltending duo of Vitek Vanecek and MacKenzie Blackwood is merely adequate, a playoff spot could be within reach. Rising star center Jack Hughes remaining healthy for a full season would help, too.
Canucks (+100 via PointsBet)
After Bruce Boudreau took over behind the Canucks' bench in 2021-22, Vancouver played to a 106-point pace. Ultimately, the Canucks finished five points out of a playoff spot. They depended a lot on goaltender Thatcher Demko, who will play a huge role in any Vancouver playoff push.
The Canucks ranked 16th in five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted shot-attempt percentage and 18th in expected goals percentage in 2021-22. That's not there yet to claim a playoff spot, but close enough that a little improvement and a good goaltender could get Vancouver into the dance.
While the team's defense still needs to get better, the Canucks boast plenty of talent at forward. That could be the advantage needed to overtake other playoff contenders in the Western Conference.
Blue Jackets (+600 via DraftKings)
The Blue Jackets produced 81 points in 2021-22, finishing 19 points out of a playoff spot. The advanced stats for Columbus weren't that encouraging. They ranked 25th in five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted shot-attempt percentage and 30th in expected goals percentage.
But the Blue Jackets signed left winger Johnny Gaudreau, who's coming off a 115-point season. If Gaudreau clicks with Patrick Laine and goaltender Elvis Merzlikins bounces back, the Blue Jackets could be an interesting long-shot play.
To Miss Playoffs
Capitals (+155 via DraftKings)
A playoff streak could end when a team’s core is getting older and injuries are starting to mount. The Capitals have reached the postseason for eight consecutive campaigns.
Washington still tallied 100 points last season, but the club goes into 2022-23 dealing with injuries. Center Nicklas Backstrom is out indefinitely after hip surgery, and forward Tom Wilson is recovering from a torn ACL.
The Capitals' main players are all in their 30s, including Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson, and new goaltender Darcy Kuemper. If the injury situation in Washington gets worse, the team risks falling out of the playoffs.
Blues (+170 via Caesars)
The Blues recorded 109 points in 2021-22, but they're probably more vulnerable than that record suggests.
They ranked 20th in five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted shot-attempt percentage and 19th in expected goals percentage.
The Blues needed a strong season from goaltender Ville Husso to overcome those possession deficiencies. Husso then signed with Detroit as a free agent, so the goaltending pressure falls back on Jordan Binnington. He was great when the Blues won the Stanley Cup in 2019, but his performance has been steadily declining since then.
Wild (+360 via DraftKings)
The Wild should expect to reach the playoffs again. They finished second in the Central Division in 2021-22 with 113 points. The team ranked 11th in five-on-five score-and-venue-adjusted shot-attempt percentage and sixth in expected goals percentage.
A salary cap crunch pushed the Wild to trade Kevin Fiala, their second-leading scorer in 2021-22. They also moved goaltender Cam Talbot, who didn't want to stay in a tandem with Marc-Andre Fleury.
Those changes could leave the Wild vulnerable. An injury to the best player would hurt any team. But with Fiala gone, the Wild might not be able to withstand any absence from leading scorer Kirill Kaprizov.
Among the teams that look like safe bets to make the playoffs, the Wild might offer some potential value on the other side of the equation.
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