NHL Shot Prop Picks, Predictions for Thursday: Too Much Kyrou for Coyotes

It’s a nine-game slate on the ice, and St. Louis Blues winger Jordan Kyrou headlines our top NHL picks in a target-worthy matchup against the defensively vulnerable Arizona Coyotes. Here are our shot-prop predictions based on the best NHL odds.

There are a laundry list of mismatches on the ice Thursday. In a tidy two-player parlay, I’m targeting a pair of teams struggling to limit the opposition. The Coyotes have been a doormat all season, and the Montreal Canadiens are trending in the wrong direction with numerous regulars out of the lineup.

Here are our top NHL shot-prop picks for Thursday (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out all our NHL best bets for Thursday, and our Bruins-Lightning picks.

Top NHL Shot Prop Picks for Thursday

• Jordan Kyrou Over 3.5 shots (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Dylan Larkin Over 2.5 shots (-168) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Combined odds: +219 (via FanDuel)

NHL Shot Prop Predictions

Jordan Kyrou Over 3.5 shots (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Coyotes' defense has consistently been among the league's most vulnerable. The Desert Dogs entered the holiday break allowing 34.3 shots per 60 minutes, and they've surrendered the exact same average across 16 games since. 

It adds up to the NHL's third-highest mark, and Arizona taking the fourth-most minor penalties at five-on-five sweetens the deal.

Blues winger Jordan Kyrou has also been equally predictable. He’s the clear No. 1 shooter at five-on-five and plays on the top power-play unit for the Blues. The 24-year-old winger has also cleared this total in three of his past four games, climbing to 16th in shots per 60 in the league.

Add in his ice time jumping to a career-high per-game average of 18:15 – and 2:49 with the man advantage – and I’m confident Kyrou capitalizes during this favorable matchup.

While there isn't a tremendous bonus for shopping around, an advantage is an advantage. The +100 odds available present a 1.2% edge and 2% positive expected value over the -105 odds through DraftKings.

Dylan Larkin Over 2.5 shots (-165 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While there’s been game-to-game inconsistency with Detroit Red Wings center Dylan Larkin’s shot totals, he’s cleared this number in 26 of 45 contests and gets a cushy setup against the reeling Canadiens on Thursday.

The Habs' projected lineup is filled with inexperienced players, and their injury list is loaded with key cogs. 

That’s taken a toll, too. Montreal has surrendered 67 shots and 135 attempts across its past two games, and the Canadiens now rank fifth- and third-last in those metrics per 60 minutes. 

Larkin has also piled up 11 shots and 17 attempts across his first two games against Montreal, and he paces the Winged Wheel forwards in ice time (19:50) and the entire team in power-play time (3:38) per game. I'm expecting another dominant showing from No. 71 against the depleted Habs.

This is another prop with tight pricing across our top shops. The advantage of buying the -165 odds through DraftKings presents a slim 0.4% edge and 1% positive expected value over the -168 number via FanDuel.

NHL shot prop picks made 1/26/2023 at 4 p.m. ET.

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