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William Nylander #88 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Florida Panthers as we make our best prop picks for Wednesday's game between the Lightning and Maple Leafs from Toronto.
William Nylander #88 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Florida Panthers during the first period at BB&T Center on February 27, 2020 in Sunrise, Florida. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP

The Tampa Bay Lightning trail the Toronto Maple Leafs by six points in the Atlantic Division as the rivals meet in Toronto on Wednesday, and we have the best NHL player props based on the most competitive NHL odds for the matchup.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have won four of the previous five road games and look to extend their solid run while closing the deficit on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Taking just 61% of available points at home, the Maple Leafs have the 15th-ranked home record. They've been better recently, winning three of the last four at Scotiabank Arena. A Maple Leafs win, which Betway offers at -132, would almost assuredly secure third place in the Atlantic Division.

While not the focus of our Lightning vs. Maple Leafs props, Auston Matthews offers a solid alternative. Matthews, who leads the league with 62 goals, must score a goal per game down the stretch to reach 70. Betway has him at -139 to score anytime and -125 to get at least five shots on goal. 

Here are our best Lightning vs. Maple Leafs NHL player props and NHL picks (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs game info & odds

  • When: Wednesday, April, 3
  • Start: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ont.
  • How to watch: ESPN+, Sportsnet
  • Favorite: -132 via Betway

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs player props

  • William Nylander Over 3.5 shots (-105 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 points (+110 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Over 6.5 goals (-120 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐

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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction

William Nylander Over 3.5 shots (-105 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Nylander mustered only two shots in the last two games, which will invariably irk the highly competitive Swede. He had at least four shots in five of the previous nine outings, including two five-shot performances. With nine shots in the two previous games against the Lightning, the Maple Leafs' second-leading scorer saves his best for the divisional foe. 

He averages 3.9 shots per game, slightly increasing to just over four at home. In addition, the Lightning are the fifth-most penalized team, averaging 11:05 each contest. If their indiscipline nature rears its ugly head, Nylander will have more opportunities to let loose on the man advantage. 

The -105 odds at Betway would pay out $19.52 on a $10 winning bet. Via our odds converter, the -105 odds accompany a 51.22% probability. 

Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 points (+110 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Nikita Kucherov is smack dab in the middle of the best Art Ross race in recent memory. The diminutive maestro has 127 points in 75 games, tied with Nathan MacKinnon and one point ahead of Connor McDavid atop the NHL scorers' chart. According to our Hart Trophy odds and at our best sports betting sites, he is the second-favorite to win the league's most coveted individual honor. 

While incredibly impressive, Kucherov's 1.74 points-per-game average pales compared to his exploits against the Leafs. Albeit in an admittedly tiny sample size, the 30-year-old has seven points in two games against the Buds. And he'll have a little extra incentive knowing his second Art Ross is within reach. 

A winning $10 wager will pay out $21, and the +110 odds imply a 47.62% probability. 

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Over 6.5 goals (-120 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐

One school of thought suggests this will be a tight-checking, low-scoring encounter, especially considering what's at stake as the playoffs near. However, the Lightning and Maple Leafs' previous two head-to-head contests resulted in two overs and 18 goals. 

This encounter is busting at the seams with superstar talent, conducive to goals galore. Not only is Matthews pursuing 70 goals and Kucherov targeting the Art Ross, but four of Tampa Bay's previous six away games and four of the last five games at Scotiabank Arena hit the Over.  

There is a chance this goes the other way and materializes as a cagey, nervy affair. But with the awe-inspiring talent on display, I'm backing the Over. A winning $10 bet at Betway pays $18.33, with the -120 odds implying a 54.55% probability.  

Here are our best NHL betting sites:

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