Lightning vs. Avalanche Stanley Cup Final Series Picks: Can Colorado Stop Tampa From Earning Three-Peat?

The Tampa Bay Lightning have advanced to the Stanley Cup Final for the third straight year after winning the last two, but the Colorado Avalanche are a formidable foe from the West standing in their way. Let's examine the matchup in our Stanley Cup Final picks.

The puck drops on the Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday, and there’s going to be a deserving winner, whether it’s the Lightning or Avalanche.

The Avalanche have lost just two games all postseason, with two sweeps bookending a 4-2 series win. They swept the Nashville Predators rather easily in the first round before the St. Louis Blues took them to six games. Colorado then disposed of Connor McDavid and the Oilers in four games during the Western Conference Final.

Meanwhile, the Lightning entered the playoffs with longer odds than recent years despite being two-time defending champions. Tampa battled its way past Toronto in seven games after losing the opening contest 5-0 and falling behind 3-2 in the series. The Bolts then swept the Presidents' Trophy-winning Panthers in the second round before taking four straight against the Rangers after falling behind 0-2 in the Eastern Conference Final.

Both of these teams have been battle-tested, and we’re in for a great Stanley Cup Final series.

Here are my Lightning-Avalanche Stanley Cup Final picks and predictions (odds via DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Lightning vs. Avalanche Odds Analysis

The Avalanche have been the odds-on favorite to win the Stanley Cup for quite some time. They reached as high as -225 after sweeping the Oilers, and Colorado is the favorite against the reigning champion Lightning. The Avalanche are between -175 (DraftKings) and -192 (Unibet) favorites, while Tampa Bay is as high as +165 (Unibet) underdogs.

The series spread is at 1.5 games. You can get the Avalanche at -1.5 (+116) through FanDuel, and the Lightning at +1.5 (-125) through BetMGM.

Oddsmakers are expecting the series to most likely end in six games, with Over 5.5 games and Under 6.5 games both priced at -200 through BetMGM.

In the exact score markets, the Avalanche are around +400 to win 4-1, 4-2, and 4-3, with a Colorado sweep at +800. The most likely Lightning win is in six games at +550.

Lightning vs. Avalanche Picks

To win series: Avalanche (-175 via DraftKings) ????Series spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+116 via FanDuel) ???Exact outcome: Avalanche to win 4-2 (+440 via FanDuel) ???Conn Smythe Trophy: Cale Makar (+185 via FanDuel) ????

Lightning vs. Avalanche Predictions

To win Series: Avalanche (-175)

The Avalanche are unlike any team the Lightning have faced in recent postseasons, especially in 2022. The Maple Leafs are probably the most comparable, and Toronto was a goal away from taking down Tampa in the first round.

Tampa Bay endured some struggles in the Eastern Conference Final against the Rangers, who were the worst 5-on-5 team during the 2022 playoffs. Goaltender Igor Shesterkin carried New York, and he ultimately couldn’t save the Rangers from their playoff-worst 39.16% xGF during 5-on-5 play.

The Bolts now face an Avalanche club that's posted a lofty 57.73% xGF in the playoffs, including over 50% in 11 of its 14 games. Additionally, Colorado showed last round that it can slow down even the best players in the world.

The Avalanche are built to be a consistent contender. The Avs dealt with injuries throughout the season, and Nazem Kadri suffered a broken thumb during the last round. He's likely to be out for at least the first few games of the Stanley Cup Final, but the team boasts enough depth to make up for it.

Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen lead the Avalanche's attack up front, with Cale Makar and Devon Toews anchoring the backend. MacKinnon and Makar have gone back and forth being the team's most important player, and the defenseman may have finally surpassed the forward.

Winning the goaltending battle is the only way the Lightning can stay in this series. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been incredible in the playoffs over the past three years. Now he's 12-5 with a .928 save percentage and 2.27 goals-against average. The Avalanche's one hole is in net, with Pavel Francouz (.906 save percentage) and Darcy Kuemper (.897 save percentage) each recording six wins through three rounds.

The Avalanche have been the better all-around team than the Lightning in the playoffs, and they should benefit from extra rest after their sweep. They’ve only played 14 postseason games while the Lightning have logged 17, including three since the Avalanche’s last contest on Monday.

The Bolts are also without Brayden Point, who has been skating but is questionable to play in the early part of the series.

https://twitter.com/Avalanche/status/1536412050485719040

Series spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+116)

Happily take the Avalanche to win this series in six games or fewer. They hold home-ice advantage, and that's of paramount importance.

The Avalanche are 37-11 at home and 31-17 on the road in 2022, and the Lightning are 29-21 on the road and 34-15 at home. Playing at home impacts a team's energy, and getting the last change is also significant for line matching. The Avs’ checking line did a great job against McDavid & Co., and it should be able to do the same against a slower Lightning team.

Exact Outcome: Avalanche to win 4-2 (+440)

Take the Avalanche on the -1.5 series spread at plus odds, and there’s great value on the 4-2 exact outcome, or even 4-1.

Colorado has done a great job of battling through adversity, and more importantly, winning at home in the playoffs. The Avs will be favored in all of their home games this series, so they should record at least three wins through five games. If they can steal a win in Tampa Bay, we’ll cash our series spread bet and quite possibly the exact outcome.

Conn Smythe Trophy: Cale Makar (+185)

Makar is showing the hockey world just how good he is in these playoffs. He leads the Avalanche with 22 points (five goals, 17 assists) over 14 games. While he's not quite up to the McDavid and Draisaitl level of two points per game, his 1.57 points per outing is mighty impressive –– especially for a defenseman.

It's going to either be Makar or MacKinnon getting the Conn Smythe Award if the Avalanche win the Stanley Cup. MacKinnon has notched 18 points (11 goals and seven assists), and he'll need a big Stanley Cup Final to surpass Makar. It's possible, but Makar at +185 is the play here.

https://twitter.com/jccuthbert/status/1536353461599608832

Where to Bet Stanley Cup Final Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Stanley Cup Final picks made on 6/13/2022 at 1:56 p.m. ET.