It’s a huge Game 3 in the Western Conference Final on Tuesday. The Vegas Golden Knights take a 2-0 series lead to American Airlines Center to face the Dallas Stars, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and shares his insights and top pick based on the NHL odds from our best sports betting apps.
The Dallas Stars have landed in the daunting 0-2 spot following consecutive overtime losses, and the Stars have struggled in close games all season with a 15-23 record in one-goal contests – including an 0-4 mark during the postseason.
A key for the Stars will be slowing down Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel. He’s been a seamless fit with the Golden Knights during the postseason and has skyrocketed up the Conn Smythe Trophy odds lists by racking up 15 points – six goals – through 13 games.
Stars netminder Jake Oettinger will also be looking to right the ship on home ice after stopping just 54 of 61 shots over the first two games of the series. Thankfully for the Big D faithful, their franchise goaltender has been far better on home ice during the playoffs.
Here is our best Stars vs. Golden Knights pick for Game 3 (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Golden Knights vs. Stars Knights pick
Regulation win: Stars (+110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
Not intended for use in MA
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Is it better to be lucky or good?
In the case of the Golden Knights, they’ve been fortunate to consistently check both boxes.
Vegas posted the fourth-highest PDO (1.013) during the regular season, and they’ve been even better in the playoffs with a 1.057 mark that’s been fuelled by an unsustainably-high combo of an 11.56 shooting percentage and .941 save percentage.
With the Western Conference Final moving to Dallas, I’m anticipating the Stars rebounding with a splash of their own statistical correction.
Dallas has a 10.3 five-on-five team shooting percentage at American Airlines Center compared to an 8.82 mark on the road during the playoffs, and Oettinger sports even larger postseason home-road splits.
The third-year backstop has struggled to an .868 save percentage on the highway, while posting a high-end .929 mark on home ice.
Sticking in net, Vegas goalie Adin Hill has a career .910 save percentage across 101 regular-season games. I’m not expecting him to maintain his .930 postseason ratio through the remainder of this series.
Dallas breaking through offensively, and Oettinger playing to his potential will pave the way for the Stars on Tuesday.
Golden Knights vs. Stars best odds
|Stars regulation win||Stars regulation win||Stars regulation win||Stars regulation win||Stars regulation win|
|+105||+105||+110 🔥||+102 ❄️||+105|
There isn’t much disparity between the prices available across our best sports betting apps. Just note, the difference between backing the +110 through BetMGM presents a positive expected value of 4% over the +102 number, and an edge is an edge.
I originally had the Dallas moneyline targeted at -140, but there’s been line movement further in the Stars' direction. As a result, I pivoted to the regulation market, and dipped my confidence rating from three to two stars.
Golden Knights vs. Stars odds
Golden Knights vs. Stars odds analysis
|Golden Knights moneyline||+130 🔥||+125||+120||+120||+125|
|Stars moneyline||-150||-150||-143 🔥||-150||-145|
|Golden Knights +1.5||-195 🔥||-210||-222 ❄️||-220||-221|
|Stars -1.5||+165 ❄️||+172||+180||+180||+180|
Prospective bettors will want to target the highlighted best and worst odds across our best NHL betting sites. For what it’s worth, 53% of the moneyline handle has been on the Stars, and 67% of the puck line handle has been on the Golden Knights through BetMGM, according to their betting insights released Tuesday morning.
|Over||5.5 (-115)||5.5 (-110)||5.5 (-110)||5.5 (-115)||5.5 (-110)|
|Under||5.5 (-105) 🔥||5.5 (-110)||5.5 (-110)||5.5 (-115) ❄️||5.5 (-110)|
Again there isn’t a wide range in the prices available across our best sports betting sites. The Over has received 51% of the betting handle, according to betting insights released by BetMGM.
Golden Knights vs. Stars game info
- Date: Tuesday, May 23, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN, Sportsnet
- Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Golden Knights-Stars pick made 05/22/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
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