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Avalanche vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Final Game 6 Picks: Can Bolts Defend Home Ice to Force Game 7?

Avalanche vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Final Game 6 Picks: Can Bolts Defend Home Ice to Force Game 7?
Darcy Kuemper #35 of the Colorado Avalanche makes a save on Ondrej Palat #18 of the Tampa Bay Lightning during the third period in Game Five of the 2022 NHL Stanley Cup Final. Photo by Justin Edmonds / Getty Images via AFP

The Tampa Bay Lightning will not go down easily. The Bolts took Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final in Colorado on Friday night and will look to defend home ice on Sunday night in Game 6. Here are our Avalanche-Lightning picks.

The Avalanche couldn’t quite close out the Lightning on Friday night. Colorado came back twice from one-goal deficits, but Ondrej Palat scored the game-winning goal late in a 3-2 Lightning victory.

The series now shifts back to Tampa Bay, where the teams split Games 3 and 4.

Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s matchup between the Avalanche and Lightning (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Avalanche vs. Lightning Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, June 26, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa Bay, FL

Avalanche vs. Lightning Odds Analysis

Game 6 opened around a pick ‘em, but Colorado receiving more money thus far moved the Avalanche to -114 favorites (FanDuel). You can get the Lightning at +100 on BetRivers.

The total opened again at six after two straight 3-2 games. It's moved down to Over 5.5 (-125) and Under 5.5 (+105) at BetMGM, while bettors can get Over 6 (+102) at Unibet and Under 6 (-115) at DraftKings.

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Avalanche vs. Lightning Picks

  • Avalanche (-114 via FanDuel) ★★★★
  • Over 6 (+102 via DraftKings) ★★★
  • Ondrej Palat to score (+220 via PointsBet) ★★★

Avalanche vs. Lightning Predictions

Avalanche (-114)

I predicted the Avalanche to win in six games in my series preview and I think they close it out Sunday. They've been the better team in terms of shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goals at 5-on-5 in every game through five contests.

Goaltending was the only reason that the Lightning won on Friday night and it played a big part in their other victory as well. Colorado goaltender Darcy Kuemper bounced back in a big way from his last loss and the Avalanche were pushing hard in Game 5.

With Nazem Kadri back and the top-six mostly intact, the Avalanche will be able to keep the pressure on and finish this out in six games.

Over 6 (+102)

The first three games of the series had seven, seven, and eight goals in them while the last two were both 3-2 finishes. Colorado keeps knocking on the door and will score a handful before long.

If the Avalanche take an early lead, the Lightning will look to play a bit more aggressively, opening the door for even more goals. Either way, we were one goal away from six in the last two games and cleared it in the first three games. I'll take the plus odds in Game 6.

Palat to score (+220)

Ondrej Palat continues to score important goals for the Lightning. He now has goals in 11 of 22 playoff games, including eight of his last 12.

He's been especially dangerous at home, scoring in seven of 10 games at Amalie Arena - including Game 3. The books continue to undervalue Palat in the goalscorer market.

Where to Bet Avalanche-Lightning Picks

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Avalanche-Lightning picks made 6/25/2022 at 11:37 p.m. ET