Vikings vs. Saints Prediction: Week 5 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
My best Vikings vs. Saints prediction focuses on how well the Vikings' defense has been playing this season. However, while the offense will get Justin Jefferson back this week, I still don't trust it, even against the league's worst-scoring defense.
The Vikings are favored by 2.5 points ahead of Sunday's 1 p.m. ET game at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The game will air on FOX and stream on FOX One.
Vikings vs. Saints picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 5 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Saints +2.5 (-108 via BetMGM) | 1 unit |
| Under 41.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | 2 units |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: +2.79 units
Vikings vs. Saints prediction & best bet
Under 41.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
Since scoring 39 points in Week 1, the Vikings have managed just 47 points in their last three games. While not scoring a touchdown against the Bears in terrible weather conditions is understandable, failing to score a touchdown at home against the Dolphins' 21st-ranked scoring defense is alarming.
But as bad as the Vikings' offense has been, the defense has been equally excellent. The Vikings have the best scoring defense, allowing just 12.8 points per game and holding three consecutive opponents to 16 points or fewer. The Vikings are allowing just 4.9 yards per play, the fourth-best average in the league.
📡 SBR Edge: Vikings' defense will stifle Shough
It's going to be very hard for the Saints to sustain drives against the Vikings' constant pressure. Tyler Shough has been sacked 12 times this season, and now he faces a defense with a 67.3% blitz rate.
Saints' offense won't get a chance at garbage-time points
The Saints are averaging 26.3 points per game. However, they've done most of their scoring in the second half. The Saints rank 29th in first-half points, averaging just 6.5 per game. That means they're scoring nearly 20 points per second half.
While some may look at this as a positive, the real reason the Saints have been so successful in the second half is that they're often trailing and facing soft coverage. In Week 1, they didn't score a point until they were down 21-0, and last week, they scored 17 second-half points after trailing 24-7 at the break.
With the Vikings averaging just 10.5 points per first half, they won't build up a large enough lead to allow Shough and company to easily put up a bunch of points late like they usually do.
Score prediction: Vikings 17, Saints 16
Live Vikings vs. Saints odds
Vikings vs. Saints opening odds
- Moneyline: Vikings -142 | Saints +120
- Spreadh: Vikings -1.5 (-110) | Saints +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110)
How to watch Vikings vs. Saints: Week 5
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: FOX One
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