There are plenty of ways to make money on upsets every week, so let’s get into the Week 12 underdog picks.
Some teams are being severely undervalued in Week 12. There’s one bad team that still can’t possibly deserve the underdog label on the road, and one struggling squad that’s actually talented. Then there’s the Colts, who are still being disrespected.
With great risk comes great reward, and every week here we head straight for the moneyline to seek out big paydays with underdog picks.
Here are my top three Week 12 underdog picks.
Underdog Picks Week 12
SEE ALSO: Early NFL Week 12 Parlay Picks
Week 12 Underdog Picks and Predictions
Colts (+135) vs. Buccaneers
Did we learn anything from Week 11? The Colts asserted themselves as a top-10 team, and maybe even top-five squad. And now they’re rather sizable underdogs against Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers are good, but they’re not at the same level as the end of last year. Their defense is still seventh in weighted DVOA, and Tampa is 4-6 against the spread overall. They’ve been great at home, but the Bucs have also fallen to some pretty bad teams.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis proved against Buffalo that it can run the ball against even the NFL's best rushing defenses. It’s been far from convincing, but this Colts team is becoming a real contender.
Jets (+125) vs. Texans
The Jets are underdogs against a one-win team on the road? A team that many picked to go winless, and that's shown nothing on either side of the football?
This is ludicrous, and the Jets moneyline in Week 12 may be my pick of the year. New York will be getting Zach Wilson back, and many will remember his lowlights prior to the rookie's injury. But Mike LaFleur learned how to call plays while his normal starter was sidelined.
New York’s defense has held it back. However, the team's offense has scored against some great defenses, and the Jets have taken down the Titans and Bengals. There shouldn’t be much concern about New York stopping one of the NFL's worst offenses, even with a banged-up secondary.
Steelers (+175) vs. Bengals
Every week I scratch my head at the odds set on the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lost on Oct. 3 to the Packers, tied the Lions in a game that Mason Rudolph started in the pouring rain, and nearly beat a good Chargers team on the road in prime time.
Much will depend on the status of T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, but Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has seemed to regress a little bit this season. The Steelers' defense was capable of slowing Justin Herbert, and it can easily do the same to Burrow.
This Bengals' defense has been picked apart lately, and Pittsburgh's offense is beginning to look more competent. Keep a close eye on the injury report, which might include Najee Harris. But barring all three of Watt, Fitzpatrick, and Harris being out, take Pittsburgh with great joy.
Picks made on 11/24/2021 at 2:22 p.m. ET