NFL Teaser Picks Week 13: Ravens Rebound Against Broncos
The Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans headline our NFL Week 13 teasers picks.
Teaser bets are popular among both professional and recreational bettors. They enable you to move multiple spreads and/or totals above or below key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. Our teaser betting primer offers additional information on teaser bets and strategies.
Check out our NFL Week 13 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 13 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Week 13 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to tease down: Ravens (-8.5)
The Denver Broncos haven’t won on the road all season, and this will also be their third away game in four weeks. Add an offense ranking last in points per game and 29th in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders, and I love teasing this spread all the way down below the key number of 3.
Additionally, I’m expecting the Baltimore Ravens to have one of their most complete showings of the season after blowing multiple fourth-quarter leads to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12.
Denver isn’t bringing the same high-end defense to the table, either. The Broncos rank 23rd in defensive DVOA while allowing the 12th-highest EPA per dropback during their active three-game losing streak.
With Baltimore ranking second in overall DVOA and sporting the fourth-highest overall grade per Pro Football Focus, I don’t anticipate Denver threatening this teaser leg with respective ranks of 26th and 23rd.
Underdog to tease up: Titans (+5.5)
The Tennessee Titans have been as good as any team in the NFL against the spread this season with an 8-3 record, and this teaser leg has added insurance above the key number of 10.
As good as the 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles have been, they’ve also faced the fourth-easiest schedule of opponents by DVOA. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel continues to maximize the talent on his roster, and Tennessee plays strong defense with the third-lowest success rate allowed and third-highest defense grade per PFF.
I expect Tennessee to have success on the ground and slow this game down, which won’t allow Philadelphia to pull away. The Eagles are susceptible against the run with the ninth-lowest rush defense DVOA and fourth-highest rush EPA against. The Titans also use the most seconds per play in the NFL, including during neutral situations.
It’s also worth noting the Eagles have failed to cover the number in three of their past four outings while dipping to 15th in overall DVOA and 21st in defensive DVOA during the stretch.
Week 13 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to tease down: Dolphins-49ers (46.5)
This total was as high as 48 this week, so having the ability to tease the number down into the key range of 40-41 should prove to be a luxury. The Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers are both trending in the right direction with respective five- and four-game winning streaks, too
Add Miami pacing the NFL in offensive DVOA while averaging 33.8 points per game, and San Francisco ranking second and averaging 26 points over the past five weeks, and there’s ample offensive firepower to clear this decreased total.
Just when it sounds too good to be true, both teams have also been excelling on the other side of the ball. The 49ers have allowed just 30 points during their four-game winning streak and sport the second-highest defense grade per PFF for the campaign. Miami has also posted its two highest pass rush and coverage grades of the season the past two weeks.
Still, I’m anticipating this to be a back-and-forth contest with both teams scoring 20-plus points.
Total to tease up: Browns-Texans (47)
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson hasn’t played since Week 17 of the 2020 season, and I expect it to show during his return Sunday. Additionally, Houston Texans quarterback Kyle Allen threw for just 5.5 yards per attempt during his first start of the year in Week 12.
Neither team has a strong defense, but that’s already been baked into this total. A six-point teaser takes this leg well above the key number of 51. It’s also noteworthy that this total was trading at 44 in look-ahead markets.
Simply put, with the Texans averaging just 15.8 points per game and ranking 32nd in offensive DVOA, I don’t see Houston putting the required points on the board.
Furthermore, I envision Cleveland leaning on the strength of its running game to help insulate Watson in his return to action. The Browns rank third in rush DVOA and second in run grade per PFF, and they also use the seventh-most seconds per play in the first half and neutral situations.
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