Rams vs. 49ers Picks, Predictions NFL Week 4: Los Angeles to Snap San Fran's Home Winning Streak
The NFC West looks like a two-team race between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers through three weeks. Thus, this Monday Night Football Week 4 clash should go a long way in determining an eventual division champion. We're breaking down the betting angles with our Rams-49ers picks.
The 1-2 49ers enter on a five-game home winning streak and will be glad to play at Levi's Stadium after two road losses to start the season. The 2-1 Rams are coming off their eighth straight win against the Arizona Cardinals, and the team improved to 6-0 in road openers under head coach Sean McVay.
San Francisco has won six of the previous seven meetings between these teams, but Los Angeles' lone win in that span was the most important, as it came in last year's NFC Championship Game.
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Here are our best picks and predictions for the Week 4 Monday Night Football matchup between the Rams and 49ers (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Rams vs. 49ers Game Info
Date/Time: Monday,
Oct. 3, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa
Clara, CA
Weather: 76 degrees, 11% chance of
precipitation, 12-mph NW wind
Rams vs. 49ers Odds
Rams vs. 49ers Odds Analysis
The 49ers opened as 1.5-point favorites on the consensus line and it has stayed there into Monday morning despite 78% of the handle being placed on the Rams. That share of the cash comes on just 44% of the tickets as the public seems to be aligned more strongly with San Francisco.
Bettors are also split on the Over/Under with 72% of the tickets on the Under by 62% of the cash on the Over. The line has dropped from an opener of 47.5 to 42.5.
Rams vs. 49ers Picks
Rams vs. 49ers ML Pick
Rams (+105) ★★
San Francisco is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games against Los Angeles, but head coach Kyle Shanahan does not have the best track record as a favorite. Shanahan's teams are 17-26-1 ATS as favorites, including a 7-16-1 ATS record as home favorites.
Matthew Stafford entered last week's game against Arizona with an NFL-high five interceptions, but we are encouraged he played clean football against the Cardinals and finished with zero turnovers.
Though the 49ers held Denver to six three-and-outs in its first eight possessions, San Francisco's offense was not much better. The two teams combined for 10 punts in the first half, the most of any first half of all games this season.
The Rams' Moneyline odds are a lot more appealing at +105 at Caesars, as grabbing the +1.5 points at -110 does not decrease liability much.
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Rams vs. 49ers O/U Pick
Under 42.5 (-107) ★★★
Though this line is down over 3 points from its initial opening, there is still value on the Under. San Francisco's offensive ceiling took a significant hit when left tackle Trent Williams suffered a high-ankle sprain last week. Williams had started the game with 19 pass blocks and had not allowed a single quarterback pressure or hit.
The 49ers were forced to insert 2021 fifth-round pick Jaylon Moore, who has started just three games (only one at LT). The 49ers will double-team Aaron Donald - the seventh active player with 100-plus career sacks - with two interior linemen, leaving the young Moore susceptible to one-on-one matchups on the outside.
San Francisco ranks sixth in the league in rushing yards per game (151.0), but that rushing attack will also take a big hit in Williams' absence.
Rams vs. 49ers Prop Pick
Robinson to score touchdown (+270) ★★★
Allen Robinson is one of seven players to have at least one red-zone target in every game this season. Thus, while defenses key in on Cooper Kupp more often because of his three touchdowns through three weeks, Robinson will have more one-on-one matchups that we expect him to win more often than not as he gets more comfortable with the new offense.
We are making this wager at FanDuel, as its +270 odds are much more appealing than DraftKings' +235 odds for this same prop.
Where to Bet on Rams-49ers Picks
Rams-49ers picks made 10/2/2022 at 7:57 a.m. ET
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