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NFL Player Props Wild Card Weekend: Predictions, Picks & Odds for Monday

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: January 15, 2024 6:32 AM EST • 6 min 63 sec read.

After a successful run in the 2023-24 NFL regular season, we're looking for a hot start to the postseason with our Wild Card Weekend NFL player props using the best NFL odds from our leading NFL prop betting sites.

We closed out the regular season with a 4-1 showing in Week 18, as we navigated the wild west of contract incentives and dwindling team motivation to secure our third profitable week in the last four tries heading into NFL Wild Card Weekend.

Monday, we'll be treated to another doubleheader Monday, when the Pittsburgh Steelers finally meet the Buffalo Bills, and the struggling Philadelphia Eagles try to right the ship against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Health could play a major factor in that one, so we'll watch the injury report over the weekend.

In addition to our NFL predictions for Wild Card Weekend, let's dive in with our best NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend

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NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend: Sunday

CeeDee Lamb to score a touchdown (-145 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌

I highlighted this bet in my Packers vs. Cowboys prediction and Packers vs. Cowboys NFL player props as one of my best bets of the weekend, and I like it even more at these -145 odds via FanDuel - the best price we've seen all week on this wager.

I laid out the logic for this bet in detail in those two articles, but the premise is simple: Lamb has been unstoppable over the second half of the season, reaching the end zone in nine consecutive weeks after his two-touchdown performance in Week 18. He's also scored in seven of eight home games and leads all receivers with 14 total touchdowns.

He'll have every opportunity to extend those streaks on Sunday against the Packers, who could be without former All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander after he sprained his ankle in Wednesday's practice. His absence would put even more pressure on a rag-tag secondary that has proven exploitable in Joe Barry's scheme.

This wager is dealing anywhere from -150 to -175 across our other best sports betting apps, so we'll gladly pay a slightly cheaper price on the Cowboys star to do what he does best on Sunday.

Matthew Stafford Over 274.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

This is another wager that we've discussed extensively in our Rams vs. Lions prediction and Rams vs. Lions NFL player props. And, much like with the Lamb prop, this one is dealing at an even better price in the hours leading up to Sunday's kickoff.

Stafford has played like a man reborn over his last five starts, averaging 295.2 passing yards as PFF's top-graded passer over that stretch. He's cleared this total in four of those five games, finishing with 317 yards in Week 17 before sitting in the regular-season finale.

He'll be both rested and motivated Sunday against his former team, which has struggled mightily against top quarterbacks all season. The Lions rank dead last in air yards allowed (2,735) and 31st in opponent's yards per completion (12.3) and depth of target (9.3) - a scary proposition against Stafford and his star-studded receiving corps.

As I highlighted in those two preview articles, I'm also betting a unit on Stafford's longest completion Over 38.5 yards (-110 via BetMGM) in a matchup that begs for some deep shots downfield. I'm betting two units on this one, though, as one of my only five-star plays of the week.

NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend: Monday

Mason Rudolph longest completion Under 31.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The longest completion market is one of my favorite ways to bet against subpar passers whose overall yardage totals are too low to fade. It's also one of the best ways to handicap a game that could be marred by wintry weather.

This bet serves both purposes, as I detailed in my Steelers vs. Bills NFL player props, as Rudolph faces unfavorable conditions in the first playoff start of his career. And the result is one of my only five-star endorsements of the week.

Rudolph's basic box-score metrics pass the test at first glance, but there's a reason the former third-round pick hasn't caught on as an NFL starter in six seasons. Since he took over as the full-time starter in Week 16, he ranks 24th in PFF passing grade and is tied for 31st in average depth of target (7.3), as he lacks the intangibles to capitalize on his decent arm strength.

Instead, the Steelers' fill-in QB has benefitted tremendously from long gains after the catch, as he currently leads the league in YAC/completion (7.7) among those with at least 70 attempts. Those will be harder to come by in the icy conditions in Buffalo, and winds are still expected to be around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph - another deterrent to the downfield passing game.

Then consider that he's facing a Bills defense that allowed the second-lowest average depth of target (6.8) and 10th-fewest air yards on completions (1,956), and it's easy to see why I'm so pessimistic about Rudolph having a long gain through the air on Monday.

Quez Watkins Over 12.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is easily the grossest matchup of Wild Card Weekend, and I'm mostly fading it altogether aside from a decent wager on Bucs +3 earlier in the week. That said, Watkins is the one player I'm targeting in the player props market, as it seems the betting public hasn't fully accounted for his increased opportunity for Monday's wild-card finale.

Philadelphia will be without its top wideout in A.J. Brown, who went down last week with a knee injury that will sideline him for Monday's contest. That should spell immediate playing time for Watkins, who led the Eagles last week with a career-high eight catches for 93 yards and a touchdown while playing 98% of the snaps.

That production wasn't all just garbage time, either. Watkins actually saw the first target of the game last week for Philly, and he had already posted 17 receiving yards before Brown's injury in the first quarter. He should slot into the WR2 role this week with Brown sidelined - something Jalen Hurts reminded him of this week:

Watkins isn't a surefire bet to make this opportunity count - he's a backup for a reason - but he's cleared this total in four of five career games with a snap count of at least 83%, which feels like a decent floor for the fourth-year wideout on Monday.

Ironically, Watkins went off for 35 yards in his playoff debut against Tampa Bay in 2022. I love his chances of having a similar impact in this one.

NFL player props for Wild Card Weekend: Saturday

C.J. Stroud to throw an interception (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ❌

No quarterback faces a tougher test this week than Stroud, who will line up opposite one of the best defenses in NFL history per advanced metrics. And I'd be shocked if he escapes with his powder dry on Sunday.

Stroud is one of four QBs making their first playoff start this weekend, which has predictably gone poorly for those playoff newcomers. Since 2002, 48 of 77 passers (62.3%) have thrown at least one pick in their playoff debut, and the last two postseasons have seen eight of 12 first-time QBs combine to throw 15 interceptions.

Eleven of the 17 rookies to make their playoff debut over the last two decades threw at least one interception, including eight of 11 since 2012. And while none of them had the profile of Stroud - who was trading among the NFL MVP favorites as a rookie - they didn't face a defense quite like this one, either.

Only two teams had more interceptions this year than the Browns (18), who also led the league in EPA allowed per pass play (minus-0.22) and ranked fifth in sack rate (8.4%). They've picked off at least one pass in 11 of 17 games, including five straight, and they coaxed Texans backup Case Keenum into two interceptions in Week 16.

Stroud may have thrown just five picks with the lowest interception rate (1.0%) among qualified starters, but he also posted the NFL's second-highest bad throw percentage (19.9%) and finished the season with 17 turnover-worthy throws (T-14) - suggesting he was among the luckiest QBs at avoiding turnovers relative to his INT count.

I'm still expecting Stroud to put up numbers in his playoff debut, if only because of volume, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't make at least one costly mistake on Sunday.

Isiah Pacheco Over 15.5 rushing attempts (-123 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

Few things in this world sound as miserable as trying to tackle Pacheco in one of the coldest games in NFL history. And if that's obvious to you and me, it's surely on the minds of the Chiefs coaching staff, too.

Kansas City has kept its second-year rusher involved all season long, feeding him double-digit carries in 12 of 13 starts with at least 16 carries in seven of them. Pacheco played a season-high 50 snaps in his last start in Week 17, when he drew all 18 running back carries and rewarded his team with a season-high 130 yards and a receiving score.

Expect Pacheco to be featured again on Saturday, when the temperature is expected to be around 0 degrees at kickoff with a wind chill approaching -30. It's hard to fully handicap what cold weather means on the field, but it could make it especially hard to catch the football - which has already been historically difficult for these Chiefs receivers in 2023.

I'm less bullish about Pacheco clearing his yardage total (64.5 via bet365) - something he's done in just six of 13 starts - but I'm expecting Kansas City's coaches to keep riding him, anyway, to wear down an already thin Dolphins front that will be without multiple starters (and backups) for the wild-card round.

With this wager dealing anywhere from -135 to -145 across our best sports betting sites, I don't mind paying a little extra at Caesars for a market outlier price on a big workload for the bruising back.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.