NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 6: ATS Predictions for Every Game
Before featuring my NFL ATS picks for Week 6, let’s get into some season trends.
Underdogs are 41-33-5 ATS (55.4%), home underdogs are 15-13-2 (53.6%), and road dogs are 26-20-3 (56.5%). Divisional favorites are a woeful 7-13 (35%).
NFL picks against the spread: Week 6 ATS predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 6 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Commanders vs. 49ers (-7.5) | 49ers (-7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cowboys vs. Packers (-1) | Packers (-1) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cardinals vs. Rams (-12.5) | Rams (-12.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jets vs. Patriots (-7) | Patriots (-7) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Titans vs. Colts (-6.5) | Colts (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texans vs. Jaguars (-2.5) | Jaguars (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Seahawks (-2.5) vs. Broncos | Seahawks (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Panthers vs. Eagles (-1.5) | Panthers (+1.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ravens (-4.5) vs. Browns | Browns (+4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bears (-3) vs. Falcons | Falcons (+3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Saints vs. Giants (-1) | Giants (-1) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Steelers (-2.5) vs. Buccaneers | Steelers (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Chargers vs. Chiefs (-8.5) | Chargers (+8.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Bills (-4.5) vs. Raiders | Raiders (+4.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Best ATS pick for Week 6
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 6.
Commanders vs. 49ers (-7.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I backed the Commanders against the New York Giants last week, and Jayden Daniels and Co. inexplicably managed to squander a 14-point fourth-quarter lead, condemning my pick.
I will not make the same mistake twice, as the Commanders travel to the West Coast after allowing an average of 31.25 points per game in the previous four outings.
They face a 5-0 49ers team that scores the third-most points per game (30.8) while allowing the third-fewest (18.6). The 49ers have the second-best defensive DVOA and the best offensive DVOA, and the Commanders rank among the bottom 11 in both.
🔬 SBR EDGE-49ers' undefeated ATS record
The 49ers are 2-0 ATS in non-divisional games, dominating the Miami Dolphins 35-13 and securing an impressive 10-point win over the Denver Broncos at home.
More Week 6 picks
Cowboys vs. Packers (-1) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While last week’s results rarely have a seismic bearing on the current week, I cannot overlook these two teams' opposing performances. The Cowboys were miserable on both sides of the ball at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they have the worst defensive DVOA.
Meanwhile, the Packers may have turned the corner. They thrashed the Chicago Bears 31-7 at Lambeau Field, and Jordan Love enjoyed his best performance of the season, tossing for 367 yards and two TDs.
He’ll be salivating at the thought of facing arguably the worst pass defense.
Cardinals vs. Rams (-12.5) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I sympathize with the Cardinals, who enter Week 6 against an angry, highly motivated Rams team after losing by 24 points at home to the Detroit Lions.
The Rams won’t take any prisoners after blowing a golden opportunity to vanquish the Buffalo Bills. Los Angeles’ only lopsided victory of the season came against a hapless Jaxson Dart-less New York Giants team.
They are due for another. The Rams’ sixth-best offense, via DVOA, takes on the 28th-ranked defense.
Jacoby Brissett has struggled with turnovers recently, tossing four picks in the previous two weeks, and the Rams throttled the Cardinals in their previous two meetings, winning by an average of 22.5 points.
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