NFL MVP Odds & Predictions After Week 5: Best Bets to Make Entering Week 6

Josh Allen entered this season as the favorite to repeat as NFL MVP, but through five weeks, Brock Purdy is tied with the reigning award winner atop the latest NFL MVP odds after leading the 49ers to a stellar 5-0 start.Purdy feels like the safest bet on the board right now, but I'm targeting two other players with my best NFL MVP predictions entering Week 6 - including a two-time MVP winner and a former No. 1 pick who is off to a blistering start in the AFC. Here is how I'd play the MVP market entering this week:

NFL MVP odds after Week 5

Here are the NFL MVP odds via FanDuel as of Tuesday, Oct. 13.

Live NFL MVP odds

Here are the live NFL MVP odds from our best sports betting sites.

Best NFL MVP bets entering Week 6

We’re playing these specific picks at carefully calculated unit sizes to cover our bases and manage our overall exposure. If Brock Purdy takes home the MVP award, we break even. However, if either Trevor Lawrence or Patrick Mahomes wins, we’ll walk away with a solid profit. The goal is to spread our risk across multiple outcomes while still positioning ourselves to capitalize on the best value in the market. Rather than putting all our eggs in one basket, we’re using a calculated approach that gives us multiple paths to a profitable finish.

Best NFL MVP bet entering Week 6

Trevor Lawrence (+900) 

Lawrence is emerging as a legitimate NFL MVP candidate, and his odds could continue to shorten if the Jaguars maintain their impressive start. Jacksonville is 4-1 through five weeks and holds a two-game lead in the AFC South, putting Lawrence in an excellent position to build a compelling MVP case. Winning the division would further solidify his candidacy, especially if the Jaguars continue stacking victories against quality opponents.

Lawrence has also delivered the individual production necessary to compete for the award. He ranks among the NFL's top five quarterbacks in passing touchdowns, with 10 through five games, while throwing for 1,174 yards. He's already recorded multiple four-touchdown and three-touchdown performances, demonstrating his ability to take control of games and lead Jacksonville's offense.

The biggest factor working in Lawrence's favor is the combination of individual statistics and team success. MVP voters often reward quarterbacks who lead winning teams, and Jacksonville's 4-1 record gives Lawrence a strong foundation to make his case. If he continues producing touchdowns at this pace while helping the Jaguars secure the AFC South title, he could emerge as one of the most compelling MVP candidates in the league. At his current odds, Lawrence is worth considering before another strong performance pushes his price even shorter.

More NFL MVP bets entering Week 6

Patrick Mahomes (+600)

Mahomes has a strong case to win his third NFL MVP trophy, and his early-season production is a big reason why. The two-time winner has recorded 10 total touchdowns in just four games, carrying the offense and delivering in high-pressure situations for the unbeaten Chiefs. He's a key reason why Kansas City hold a 1.5-game lead over the rest of the AFC West, and another division title would put Mahomes in an excellent position to win this award again.

Brock Purdy (+300)

Purdy has established himself as a legitimate NFL MVP candidate, leading the San Francisco 49ers to a perfect 5-0 start with a two-game lead in the NFC West. Purdy also leads the NFL with 13 passing touchdowns, showcasing his ability to consistently find the end zone and keep San Francisco's offense rolling. If he maintains this production while guiding the 49ers toward a division title and one of the NFC's best records, his MVP case will become increasingly difficult to ignore.