Packers vs. Chiefs Preseason Week 3 NFL Picks: Green Bay to Gain Momentum Ahead of Season Opener
The Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs kick off the third and final week of the preseason on Thursday night. We’re breaking down the betting with our Packers-Chiefs picks.
Usually, a game involving the Packers and Chiefs would be the Game of the Week, as the country would be glued to watch two of the league's best quarterbacks duke it out. However, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes will play, at most, a couple of series in this final exhibition.
Therefore like each team’s first two preseason games, this game will come down primarily to how the backups play.
Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday’s Week 3 preseason matchup between the Packers and Chiefs (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook).
Packers vs. Chiefs Game Info
Date/Time:
Thursday, Aug. 25, 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: NFL
Network
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas
City, MO
Weather: 68 degrees, 16% chance of
precipitation, wind NNE 7 mph
Packers vs. Chiefs Odds Analysis
The Chiefs opened as 1-point favorites, but the line has jumped the fence, and they're as long as 3-point underdogs. As of early Tuesday morning, Green Bay had drawn the largest wagers with just 59% of the tickets but 79% of the cash on its side.
The total also saw drastic line movement, coming down from an opening of 39.5 to 36 at most sportsbooks. The money is almost 3-1 to the Over, with 62% of the bets and 72% of the cash.
Packers vs. Chiefs Picks
Packers vs. Chiefs Predictions
Packers -3 (-110)
Since 2015, Andy Reid’s Kansas City teams have finished under .500 in the preseason just once. It's on the verge of its second losing preseason in that span after averaging 19 points per game in splitting its first two games against the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders.
Granted, none of that offensive inefficiency is the product of poor play from Mahomes, as he is 18-for-26 for 202 yards and three touchdowns in three preseason drives. Ten different receivers have caught passes from Mahomes thus far, as that could be a sign of things to come from this offense that will likely spread the ball around more in the absence of Tyreek Hill.
With Reid likely feeling good about where his first-team offense is at, it wouldn't be surprising if Mahomes doesn't play at all this game.
Conversely, look for Packers head coach Matt LaFleur to ramp things up in this final preseason game to avoid last year’s Week 1 disaster. The Saints blew out the Packers 38-3 to open 2021, and LaFleur was criticized for not playing Rodgers in the preseason.
Green Bay’s top six wide receivers on the depth chart combined for 99 receptions in 2021, while the departed Davante Adams had 123 catches on his own. Thus, LaFleur will likely get his MVP quarterback time to work with his inexperienced receiving corps, giving the Packers more of a chance to jump out to an early lead.
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Over 36 (-110)
This low total suggests we are not likely to see much of Green Bay’s or Kansas City’s starters. But given the way the majority of preseason games have shaken out this season, we still expect points from the reserves.
Fourteen of the first 17 preseason games this year cashed the Over, and it's cashed in seven of Green Bay’s last 10.
Rodgers called out his young receiving corps for dropping five of Jordan Love’s passes in their last preseason game, several of which would have gone for explosive plays if completed. With their jobs on the line, look for a more concentrated and focused effort from this group, which will help Love and Co. move the ball down the field with more success.
And even if we see Rodgers and Mahomes for a limited time, any minutes they play should result in points.
Where to Bet on Packers vs. Chiefs
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Packers-Chiefs picks made 8/23/2022 at 7:49 a.m. ET
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