2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Picks & Info: Esper, Sudo Favorites for July 4
A contest synonymous with the holiday itself, the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest takes place on July Fourth with betting odds available across our best sports betting sites. We're looking at the available betting markets and our expert picks with Joey Chestnut notably absent from the 2024 competition on Coney Island.
The banishment of Joey Chestnut from the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest due to his partnership with a vegan hot dog company - we are not The Onion - has taken some of the luster away from the signature Fourth of July sporting event.
But Chestnut's absence from Thursday's event has drastically opened up the betting market, with nearly all of our best sports betting apps offering odds. Geoffrey Esper is now the consensus favorite to win the men's competition, while Miki Sudo remains the favorite on the women's side of the face-stuffing contest.
2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds
Odds as of Thursday at 7:45 a.m. ET. | 🔥 = best available odds | ❄️ = worst available odds
Men's outright winner
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Esper | -115 | +105 🔥 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
| James Webb | +165 🔥 | +150 | +130 | +125 ❄️ | +160 |
| Nick Wehry | +900 | +1000 | +550 ❄️ | +1000 | +850 |
| Patrick Bertoletti | +900 🔥 | +850 | +750 | +750 | +850 |
| Field | +2500 | OFF | OFF | +2500 | +2500 |
| Gideon Oji | +4000 | +6000 | +2500 ❄️ | +6000 | +5000 |
| Derek Henderickson | +7500 | +10000 🔥 | +8000 | +9000 | +7500 |
| Darrien Thomas | +7500 | +10000 🔥 | +8000 | +9000 | +7500 |
| Max Stanford | +7500 | +10000 🔥 | +8000 | +9000 | +7500 |
| George Chiger | +7500 | +10000 | +10000 | +9000 | +7500 |
* Several sportsbooks now offer "field" as a betting option, where the winner would be any competitor not listed by the sportsbook, though it would not include Joey Chestnut should he participate.
Men's favorite: Geoffrey Esper
Best odds: +105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.78%
Esper has never won the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, but he's now the consensus favorite in a field that doesn't include Chestnut. He finished second each of the last two years and finished with 49 hot dogs and buns eaten last year.
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Women's outright winner
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miki Sudo | -900 | -750 🔥 | -1600 | -950 | -800 ❄️ |
| Mayoi Ebihara | +500 | +450 | +500 | +380 ❄️ | +500 |
| Michelle Lesco | +4000 | +7500 🔥 | +2500 ❄️ | +4000 | +5000 |
| Katie Prettyman | +5000 | +10000 🔥 | +5000 | +8500 | OFF |
| Field | +5000 🔥 | OFF | OFF | +4500 | +4000 ❄️ |
| Larell Marie Mele | +10000 | +7500 ❄️ | +10000 | +11000 🔥 | OFF |
Women's favorite: Miki Sudo
Best odds: -750 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 90.91%
Sudo won this competition all but one of the past nine years and is as dominant of a threat as Chestnut was on the men's side. She successfully defended her world title last summer with 39.5 hot dogs eaten and will look for a third straight title this year after returning from pregnancy in 2022.
Her best odds of -750 imply a probability of 88.24% that she will accomplish the feat. The -1600 odds from BetMGM imply a 94.12% probability.
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2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest picks, predictions
Picks made by C Jackson Cowart on Tuesday, July 2 at 5:30 p.m. ET. Odds may vary from the most recent prices above.
Geoffrey Esper (+100)
Esper was dealing as short as -200 after Chestnut was banned from this year's competition, but the market has faded the favorite in the days ahead of the July 4 spectacle. I think that's a mistake.
The 49-year-old veteran is the most accomplished competitive eater in this field, having placed second behind Chestnut each of the last three years with a host of records in other food scenes, too. The only thing missing from his resume is a win in the world's most famous competitive eating contest.
His 49 hot dogs and buns (HDB) eaten last year - down from his personal best of 51 - are still more than top competitor James Webb (47.5) has consumed in his two cracks at it, and Esper says he's been training for weeks for his shot to finally be crowned champion at Coney Island. It sure feels like this could finally be his moment.
Best odds: +100 via bet365
Patrick Bertoletti (+800)
Are we sure Bertoletti should still be dealing as this big of a long shot? He was dealing as long as +2000 after Chestnut's dismissal, but he remains a screaming value at this price.
Nobody in this contest (on either side) has ever beaten Bertoletti's personal best of 55 HDB that he set in 2009, when he finished third in this contest. He also finished in the top three in 2010 (37), 2011 (53), and 2012 (51) before a retirement from hot dogs that lasted a decade and included a brief stint on America's Got Talent:
He returned to this competition two years ago and finished fifth with 33.5 HDB. That obviously won't cut it this year, but he downed an impressive 48.25 HDB last month in Cleveland to qualify for this event, which he's never won despite some admirable efforts.
That qualifying mark would set a personal record for everyone in the field not named Esper, and we've seen him clear that total in previous years. At this price, it's hard not to like Bertoletti's chances of pulling off the sizable upset.
Best odds: +800 via Caesars
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Field (+2500)
When it comes to eating hot dogs, there isn't a ton of volatility year-over-year. Talk to any competitive eater in the scene, and they'll tell you that, for the most part, you can predict how many HDB the top competitors will consume within a small margin for error.
That's what makes this prop bet so interesting, as this year's field includes multiple competitors who have never been tested on the grand stage. Many of them - including William Lyon, King Yamamoto, and Radim Dvoracek - have impressed with their eating chops on YouTube but have yet to crash the party at Coney Island.
At these odds, why not take a shot? With Chestnut out of the picture, anything is possible on July 4th with a rare opportunity for someone to make history.
Best odds: +2500 via DraftKings
Michelle Lesco (+2500)
Let me be clear: I don't think anyone is beating Sudo on the women's side, though I'm not exactly compelled to lay those -1200 odds on her winning the 10th consecutive contest that she's competed in.
If there's anyone else worth betting in the field, it's clearly Lesco, who won in 2021 when Sudo was on the sidelines. She downed 30.75 HDB that year, and her personal best of 32 is just a tick behind Mayoi Ebihara, who is dealing at a third of the price as Lesco.
Again, I don't think anyone is betting Sudo, which is why I wouldn't bother targeting anyone that doesn't have clear long-shot odds. Given Lesco's previous success and experience in this contest, I don't mind a (small) wager at these generous odds.
Best odds: +2500 via BetMGM
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Past Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest winners
| Year | Men's winner | Hot dogs | Women's winner | Hot dogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024* | Patrick Bertoletti | 58 | Mike Sudo | 51 |
| 2023 | Joey Chestnut | 62 | Miki Sudo | 39.5 |
| 2022 | Joey Chestnut | 63 | Miki Sudo | 40 |
| 2021 | Joey Chestnut | 76 | Michelle Lesco | 30.75 |
| 2020 | Joey Chestnut | 75 | Miki Sudo | 48.5 |
| 2019 | Joey Chestnut | 71 | Miki Sudo | 31 |
| 2018 | Joey Chestnut | 74 | Miki Sudo | 37 |
| 2017 | Joey Chestnut | 72 | Miki Sudo | 41 |
| 2016 | Joey Chestnut | 70 | Miki Sudo | 38.5 |
| 2015 | Matt Stonie | 62 | Miki Sudo | 38 |
| 2014 | Joey Chestnut | 61 | Miki Sudo | 34 |
| 2013 | Joey Chestnut | 69 | Sonya Thomas | 36.75 |
* Joey Chestnut was banned from the 2024 contest due to a partnership with a vegan hot dog company.
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest prop bets
BetMGM and DraftKings are the only books offering prop bets ahead of the 2024 competition. We'll update this article once other books join the fun.
Odds below are from BetMGM.
Total hot dogs eaten
| Name | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Esper | 49.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Miki Sudo | 40.5 | -115 | -115 |
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Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest FAQs
Who are the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest favorites?
Geoffrey Esper (+105) and Miki Sudo (-1600) are the favorites once again for the 2024 competitions with Joey Chestnut banned from competing on the men's side.
When is the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest will be held on July 4, as it is annually.
Where is the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
The contest is held at Nathan's Famous in Coney Island, N.Y.
How to watch the contest
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is televised on ESPN, with coverage beginning at 10 a.m. ET.
How long is the contest?
The men's and women's competitions are 10 minutes.
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