NFL Over/Under Picks, Predictions Week 14: Can Denver’s Under Trend Continue Against Kansas City?
We examine the NFL Over/Under market in Week 14, which features six teams on bye.
With two totals south of 40 and two more north of 50 across the NFL slate this week, what values can we find on the numbers that we believe are mispriced based on the trends of the participating teams?
Here are our top Over/Under bets of NFL Week 14 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Top Over/Under Bets of NFL Week 14
- Chiefs-Broncos Under 43.5 (-115 via DraftKings)
- Bucs-49ers Under 37.5 (-115 via FanDuel)
- Texans-Cowboys Over 45.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Top Over/Under NFL Week 14 Predictions
Chiefs-Broncos Under 43.5 (-115) ★★★★
My personal rule to take the Under in games involving Russell Wilson’s Broncos this season did not let me down in Week 13, as Denver and Baltimore both played an ugly game of football. The Broncos are now 1-11 to the Over, which is easily the lowest rate in the NFL this season.
The combination of Wilson’s heinous quarterback play and Denver’s No. 7-ranked defense in DVOA makes the Broncos an obvious target. Though you might expect some risk for that trend when facing the potent Kansas City offense this week, the Chiefs haven’t exactly been world-beaters in clearing totals this season by going just 5-7 on Overs.
Though Kansas City has trended more favorably toward Overs in its road games (4-2), this team is averaging 25.4 points per game across its last five contests. Even if I knew ahead of time the Chiefs would get to 30, I’d still like the Under given Denver’s appalling 13.8 points per game scoring average. We’ll pay the extra juice (-115u) to get to 43.5 at FanDuel and DraftKings rather than BetMGM’s -110 odds on a 43-point total.
Bucs-49ers Under 37.5 (-115) ★★★★
One of the lowest totals in the week goes Under as two top-five scoring defenses square off in California. Even with their many powerful offensive weapons, the 49ers might find trouble engaging in a high-scoring affair this week against a Tampa Bay team that has not had an away game go Over the total all season (0-5).
The 49ers are 2-4 to the Over at home this season in part because of the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense, which allows just 15.8 points per game. Aside from a game in which the Chiefs hung 44 on this San Francisco defense, the Niners have allowed an average of fewer than 10 points per game across all other home contests.
Given that Tampa hasn’t scored more than 22 points since Oct. 2, I don’t view Tom Brady’s unit as the one that’s suddenly going to push the 49ers at home. At FanDuel, pay the -115 odds to get the hook to 37.5. It’s worth it for a matchup that could conceivably end 20-17, 21-16, or even 24-13.
Texans-Cowboys Over 45.5 (-110) ★★★★
DraftKings lists the Texans’ team total at 13.5 points, which seems about right given their potential for garbage-time scoring in a blowout. But even if Houston isn’t fortunate enough to find the end zone in this game, would anyone doubt Dallas clearing this total on its own?
The Cowboys have exploded for 40-plus points in three of their last five. Beyond an offense that is clicking both on the ground and through the air, forcing turnovers has the tendency to expedite scoring in their contests. Dallas has cleared this total in four of its last five games.
Though the Texans have only seen three games clear this total on the year, eight of their contests have reached 40-plus points. Dallas’ third-ranked scoring average should present itself against the 26th-ranked defense in DVOA in the league. Both DraftKings and BetMGM feature the number at 45.5 with standard -110 odds.
Where to Bet on NFL Week 14 Over/Under Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Week 14 Over/Under NFL picks made 12/7/2022 at 5:15 p.m. ET.
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