NFL Week 3 Last Chance Value Picks

Our Last Chance Value Picks are connecting early in the season as our record stands at 4-1-1 ATS after two weeks. Let’s go for the sweep in Week 3 and keep cashing our NFL picks!

Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, September 26, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

This line opened at Baltimore -8 and has pretty much stayed there throughout the week. However, there are books out there that are beginning to bend under the weight of the public money being sent in on the Ravens. We are starting to see a few 8 ½ ‘s out there and there is even one, Bovada, that is now dealing Baltimore as a nine-point favorite.

Right now, the Ravens are the darlings of the NFL after knocking off the juggernaut from Kansas City, but getting a lowly Lions team after a euphoric victory has all the elements of a good old-fashioned letdown. I think Detroit has played much better than most people expected after substituting Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford. They hung with the 49ers and actually held a lead against the Packers before getting blown away in the second half of that game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIfft3wLMYY

I say we grab the generous nine-point head start on the home dog here and hope that the Ravens are still relishing their enormous victory from last week.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants

Sunday, September 26, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium

Here we have a pair of winless bottom-feeders and the only fans that care about this matchup reside in either Atlanta or the parts of New York and New Jersey that root for the Giants and not the Jets. But since they both can’t lose, I guess we have to make a choice.

The NFL odds being offered at all of the best online sportsbooks have the Giants as three-point home favorites but there is one book that has recently moved off of that all-important 3 and is now dealing Big Blue at -2 ½. And while I’m never a fan of tossing good money after bad teams, I can’t help but think that the G-Men have a bit more to work with than the motley crew from Atlanta.

Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants. Rob Carr/Getty Images/AFP.

The Giants delivered a gritty performance last week in a 30-29 victory over Washington and it wouldn’t surprise me if they won this one by double digits. Let’s lay 2 ½ and appreciate the generous number being offered at Heritage.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns

Sunday, September 26, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at FirstEnergy Stadium

The Browns are hot off the heels of a 31-21 win over the Texans a week after giving the Chiefs all they could handle in Week 1 before falling short, 33-29, but covering the number as 5 ½ point favorites. Now they will face a Bears’ team that will be starting its highly-touted rookie quarterback, Justin Fields, after a decent effort in relief of the injured Andy Dalton last week.

The oddsmakers have been uniform in dealing the Browns at -7 since the lines were released, but now we are seeing the public money push this one a bit north. Any time we can get off of the magic number seven, either over or under, it’s a pretty big deal. Here we see that a few of the books have now moved to 7 ½ which whets our appetite for a live road dog here.

https://twitter.com/ChicagoBears/status/1440692404135219203?s=20

The Browns have some injury issues that could keep Baker Mayfield from launching early and often. Jarvis Landy will not be in action on Sunday after suffering an MCL sprain last week and Odell Beckham Jr.’s status remains tenuous after sitting on the sidelines and rehabbing from an ACL tear. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt stated that Beckham’s return to the gridiron will be a game-time decision.

And we must also note that two of Cleveland’s offensive linemen did not participate in practice, which all adds up to a big dose of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt running the rock against a fairly stout Chicago run-stop unit. That gives us a good reason to believe the Bears will stay close in this one and getting the hook on the seven gives us the incentive to make a value play on the Bears in this one.

NFL Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.