Who Will Lead the NFL in Interceptions? NFL Futures Odds and Picks

Heading into Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season, Jon Metler has his eye on one intriguing futures market. Who will be the NFL's leader in interceptions thrown?

The futures market to be the NFL leader in interceptions is currently a tight race between several quarterbacks. Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill comes into Week 13 with the dishonor of being the league leader with 13 interceptions through 12 games. However, 10 other signal callers have thrown 10 or more picks.

We look at some buy and sell options in the futures market to be the NFL's 2021 leader in interceptions thrown (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

2021 NFL Interceptions Leaders

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NFL Interceptions Leader: Favorite

Tannehill (+350)

Tannehill currently leads the NFL with 13 interceptions. The good news is he can’t throw any this week because the Titans are on a bye. Between the bye week and a matchup with the rival Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 14, I don’t expect Tannehill to be leading this category for very long.

His odds are a little bit of an overreaction to the fact that he is currently the NFL's interceptions leader. This number should be much longer than +350 in two weeks.

Advice: Sell

NFL Interceptions Leader: Contenders

Jackson (+800)

Jackson currently sits tied for second in the NFL with 12 interceptions. Unlike Tannehill, he already had his bye week and has six games remaining on his schedule instead of five. 

After every season, Football Outsiders goes back and completes a study on the interceptions thrown by QBs. They look at dropped interceptions, tipped interceptions, and interceptions coming from Hail Mary’s, among other things. They take all this information and calculate an adjusted interception total for each QB. This adjusted total gives you a better idea of just how many interceptions each QB should have thrown last season.

In the 2020 season, Jackson threw a modest nine interceptionsover 15 games; however, his adjusted interception total was 16. He had eight would-be interceptions that were just dropped by the defense in 2020. When factoring in the adjusted interceptions, Jackson had an interception rate of 4.3%. This was higher than Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock, who shared the NFL lead for interceptions last season. 

The other factor to consider when evaluating Jackson for this season prop, is his remaining schedule. The Ravens' six remaining games include two games against the Pittsburgh Steelers, as well as matchups against the Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Cleveland Browns. These are games where the Ravens won't just be able to line up and run the ball.

It is very likely that they will be trailing in some of these games and be forced to throw. This will just create more opportunities for Jackson's interception total to rise.

Advice: Buy

Lawrence (+750)

Lawrence is currently three interceptions behind Tannehill for the NFL lead. With the way his career started, it looked as though he might run away with this market.

His odds are short because he is one of the interception leaders, but most of these were in his first three games. Lawrence had seven interceptions over his first three career starts and has only three since then. He has only one interception over his last four starts.

He has done a much better job protecting the football and I don’t believe the Jaguars are going to put him in a position to throw many interceptions down the stretch.

Advice: Sell

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Picks made on 11/30/21 at 10 a.m. ET.