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ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 21: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs the ball in the game against the Buffalo Bills during the third quarter at Highmark Stadium on November 21, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York. Joshua Bessex/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Joshua Bessex / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

For the past eight seasons, the AP NFL MVP has been the domain of quarterbacks. Could this season be different? Here are some of the best odds and picks for NFL MVP.

Wagering on voted awards requires some group psychology. There is not some absolute truth to how awards are handed out. However, there are trends and the recent trends tilt heavily towards quarterbacks.

Current NFL MVP Favorites

Even if this season’s race appears more open, the odds-on favorites remain quarterbacks. The favorite at this point is Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady (+270, all odds via FanDuel Sportsbook). With 3,177 passing yards and 29 touchdowns in 10 games, Brady is on pace for 5,400 yards and 49 touchdowns in a 17-game season. If he keeps that pace, that is probably enough for Brady to win his fourth MVP award.

For any of the QBs in the hunt, they likely have to be on a winning team unless their numbers are so far beyond the rest. The Bucs are 7-3, so they would have to collapse completely to not finish with a winning record. But if they were mediocre the rest of the way, maybe that would open the door for other candidates.

The next closest in the FanDuel odds for NFL MVP is Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen at +550. Allen has passed for 2,811 yards with 21 touchdowns in 10 games. Allen is more mobile, so he has added 340 yards and three rushing touchdowns, too. It has been a strong season for Allen, and he was an early favorite, but his candidacy has taken a hit from the Bills losing three of the past five games.

NFL MVP Outsiders

There is a trio of QBs priced at +900: Dallas’ Dak Prescott (2,557 yards, 20 TD, 7 INT, 9 GP), Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers (2,571 yards, 21 TD, 4 INT, 10 GP), and the Rams’ Matthew Stafford (3,014 yards, 24 TD, 8 INT, 10 GP).

So the top five on the board are QBs and so are the next three.

Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (3,200 passing yards, 25 TD, 11 INT, 11 GP; 238 rush yards, 1 TD) and Arizona’s Kyler Murray (2,276 passing yards, 17 TD, 7 INT, 8 GP; 147 rush yards, 3 TD) are both priced +1000. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (2,447 yards, 14 TD, 8 INT, 9 GP; 639 rush yards, 2 TD) is at +1200.

Any of those players could close the gap on Brady with a strong finish. It might take a superhuman finish from Rodgers to win the award for a second consecutive season considering the public relations backlash he has faced for being less than forthcoming about his COVID-19 vaccination status.

If Patrick Mahomes played like classic Mahomes down the stretch and the Chiefs roared into the finish of the season, he might have the best chance to climb above this group of quarterback contenders.

SEE ALSO: NFL Week 12 Updated Odds, Line Moves, and Picks

Time For a Non-QB To Win?

When looking for value in this market, the best chance belongs to Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. He is +2500 to take the MVP.

Through 11 games, Taylor has accrued 1,444 yards from scrimmage and is up to 15 touchdowns after scoring five against Buffalo in Week 11. That would put him on pace for 2,232 yards from scrimmage and 23 touchdowns in 17 games. While that would be a fantastic season, it also would likely not be enough to win.

Running Backs to Win NFL MVP

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Last season, Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry had a dominant season, piling up 2,141 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns. He won Offensive Player of the Year but did not receive a vote for MVP.

Since 2010, in addition to Adrian Peterson winning in 2012, there have only been three other running backs to finish Top 5 for MVP. Todd Gurley (2,093 yards, 19 TD) finished a distant second to Tom Brady in 2017, Ezekiel Elliott (1,994 yards, 16 touchdowns) finished fourth in 2016, and DeMarco Murray (2,261 yards, 13 touchdowns) third in 2014.

When looking at it through that lens, it becomes less likely that Taylor can win unless he has a monstrous finish to the season. If he scores 30+ touchdowns, maybe that would break the hold that the quarterback has on the MVP award.

The next highest non-quarterback odds for NFL MVP is Rams WR Cooper Kupp at +10,000 on Fan Duel. Kupp has 85 receptions for 1,141 yards with 10 touchdowns in 10 games. The difficulty for any wide receiver is accumulating the numbers without having a quarterback who has huge passing stats in the process. Even Jerry Rice never won the AP NFL MVP.

While I might like to dream about Jonathan Taylor breaking through, it will take an incredible finish for him to win. More likely is that a quarterback like Mahomes who won in 2018, could match Brady’s production to make it a closer race down the stretch.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.