2022 NFL Draft QB Odds and Picks: Is There Value Betting the Over on QBs Drafted in 1st Round?

We're less than a week away from the 2022 NFL Draft and we're still combing through information and NFL draft odds that will help us form our top picks and best bets. One bet we've been monitoring is the total number of quarterbacks that will be drafted in the first round.

While the prevailing sentiment is this is among the weakest quarterback draft classes in recent memory, the reality is there has never been as much value placed on the QB position as there is in today's NFL.

Regardless of the talent available, teams will always be in search of potential franchise quarterbacks and this year is no different.

Let's take a look at the data currently available to us and the odds for the total quarterbacks drafted in the first round.

NFL Draft Odds: Total 1st-Round Quarterbacks Drafted

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NFL Draft Odds: 1st QB Selected

(odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

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While there is much debate over who will be the first quarterback to come off the board and by which team, there is no denying that a QB will be taken on Thursday. The question is how many.

To read the tea leaves, first, let's assess the number of teams with a need at quarterback.

Check out our 2022 NFL Draft odds and picks hub, and see all our draft coverage here.

NFL 2022 Quarterback Depth Charts

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Realistically, there are only two teams with a glaring need for a starting quarterback entering the 2022 season. The Carolina Panthers and head coach Matt Rhule are desperate for a capable passer and own the sixth overall pick. Though it would reek of desperation, they are expected to either take a quarterback at that draft slot or trade down and still select a quarterback.

The Panthers' other picks are in the fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds, so they're not a candidate to trade back in at the back end of the first round to select a quarterback.

Following their divorce from Russell Wilson, the Seattle Seahawks also have a glaring hole at the most important position. Former Denver Broncos second-round pick Drew Lock is currently penciled in as the starter. Seattle owns the ninth overall pick from the trade with Denver.

The Seahawks also own the eighth and ninth picks in the second round and therefore are well equipped to make a deal to get a late pick in the first round.

That's two teams with a definite QB need. All Over 2.5 bettors would need is one more team to fall in love with a passer to cash the bet. Those who opt for the Over 3 odds would need just one more passer to be picked for a push.

And there are plenty of teams who could opt to find their quarterback of the future in the first round of this draft. Remember how much of a surprise it was that the Green Bay Packers used the 26th overall pick on Jordan Love in 2020.

SEE ALSO: 2022 NFL Draft Odds and Picks - Sauce Gardner Surging in Markets

QB-Needy Teams Entering NFL Draft

Heading the list of teams who could draft their heir apparent are the Detroit Lions. Veteran Jared Goff did little to solidify his standing in Detroit last season, and general manager Brad Holmes has stated the team won't be afraid to select a quarterback.

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The Lions own both the No. 2 and No. 32 overall picks in the first round. If the second overall pick is too rich a position to take one of Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett, the final pick of the first round is an ideal spot.

Speaking of teams with multiple first-round picks, the New Orleans Saints own the No. 16 and No. 19 selections after a pick swap with the Philadelphia Eagles last month. The Saints brought back Jameis Winston, but he's only signed to a modest two-year deal.

Other teams lacking a franchise quarterback are the Atlanta Falcons (who signed Marcus Mariota to a two-year deal), Pittsburgh Steelers (who signed Mitch Trubisky to a $14-million pact), Washington Commanders (who traded for the enigmatic Carson Wentz), and New York Giants (who have yet to commit long-term to Daniel Jones).

Then there are a couple of wildcards, such as the teams with veteran passers that will have to think about a succession plan, like the Tennessee Titans with Ryan Tannehill.

There are also other clubs with multiple first-round picks, like the Houston Texans. Though they were pleasantly surprised with the play of Davis Mills last season, they're also not beholden to the former third-round pick.

Market supports targeting QBs in Round 1

Finally, there is extra incentive in selecting a quarterback in the first round. First-round picks may command lucrative contracts, but they also come with a fifth-year option. In today's NFL, the most financially savvy way to build a winner is with a quarterback on a rookie contract.

The Kansas City Chiefs rose to prominence with Patrick Mahomes on his rookie deal. The Buffalo Bills also built an AFC contender before signing Josh Allen to a $258-million extension last offseason. The Baltimore Ravens have enjoyed four successful seasons with Lamar Jackson under center after selecting him 32nd overall in 2018. And they still have yet to pay the former league MVP the nine-figure contract he'll command.

Even if there may not be a talent like Mahomes, Allen, or Jackson in this year's draft, there's value in taking a chance on a quarterback in the first round.

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Recommendation: Over 3 QBs taken in the 1st round (-105 via Caesars)

At nearly a pick 'em - as noted by Jon Metler - the odds at Caesars Sportsbook are too good to pass up.

The last time there were fewer than three quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL draft was in 2015 when Winston and Mariota went first and second overall, respectively. In fact, along with 2013 when E.J. Manuel was the only passer taken on the first night, it has only occurred twice in the last 11 years.

As laid out, there are multiple scenarios that can result with at least three quarterbacks getting their names called on Thursday night. With the potential for a surprise team trading back into the end of the round to select a fourth passer, taking the Over 3 is a smart bet.

Where to Bet on the NFL Draft

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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