NFL AI Predictions: Week 4 ATS Picks & Score Projections for Every Matchup
Week 4 of the NFL season begins Thursday night with an AFC North matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, followed by a full Sunday slate that includes Colts-Commanders in London.
Below are our NFL Week 4 AI predictions and ATS picks for every matchup. All kickoff times are Eastern Time, while spreads are based on Kalshi's market as of Monday, September 28.
The AI model considers performance through the first three weeks weeks, advanced metrics, injuries, roster strength, matchup advantages, home-field edge, and current market movement when projecting each game. All ATS picks below use Kalshi's NFL spread markets as of Thursday, Sept. 24.
Check out the complete 2026 NFL schedule and follow all of SBR's NFL picks throughout the season.
NFL AI predictions for Week 4
| Date | Kickoff (ET) | Prediction | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 1 | 8:15 p.m. | Steelers 24, Browns 17 | Steelers -2.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 9:30 a.m. | Colts 30, Commanders 20 | Colts -3.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 1:00 p.m. | Cardinals 24, Giants 16 | Cardinals -1.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 1:00 p.m. | Bills 31, Patriots 17 | Bills -6.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 1:00 p.m. | Jets 24, Bears 20 | Jets +3.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 1:00 p.m. | Cowboys 27, Texans 20 | Cowboys +2.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 1:00 p.m. | Rams 27, Eagles 20 | Rams -3.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 1:00 p.m. | Packers 27, Buccaneers 17 | Packers -3.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 1:00 p.m. | Ravens 31, Titans 13 | Ravens -11.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 1:00 p.m. | Jaguars 27, Bengals 24 | Jaguars +2.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 4:05 p.m. | Vikings 30, Dolphins 13 | Vikings -10.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 4:25 p.m. | Chiefs 30, Raiders 20 | Chiefs -4.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 4:25 p.m. | Seahawks 30, Chargers 17 | Seahawks -7.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 4:25 p.m. | Broncos 27, 49ers 24 | Broncos +2.5 |
| Oct. 4 | 8:20 p.m. | Lions 30, Panthers 20 | Lions -3.5 |
| Oct. 5 | 8:15 p.m. | Saints 27, Falcons 20 | -2.5 |
Steelers vs Browns AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| Browns | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
Pittsburgh's offense showed encouraging signs in the 30-27 win over Cincinnati, while Cleveland needed a late push to get past Carolina. Divisional games can be unpredictable, but the Steelers have the more reliable passing attack and laying less than a field goal leaves enough margin for a road cover.
ATS pick: Steelers -2.5
Colts vs Commanders AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 7 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| Commanders | 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
Indianapolis finally broke through with a 19-17 victory over Houston and has a chance to build momentum against a Washington team still dealing with uncertainty at quarterback. Jayden Daniels remains week-to-week with his elbow injury, making Indianapolis the more trustworthy side despite the neutral-site setting in London.
ATS pick: Colts -3.5
Cardinals vs Giants AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| Giants | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
New York beat Tennessee in Week 3, but the offense generated only four field goals with Jameis Winston replacing Jaxson Dart. Dart will miss the remainder of the regular season after undergoing knee surgery. Arizona just scored 30 points against San Francisco and owns the higher offensive ceiling here.
ATS pick: Cardinals -1.5
Patriots vs Bills AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| Bills | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
New England's 35-6 loss to Jacksonville exposed issues on both sides of the ball, and a trip to Buffalo represents another difficult assignment. The Bills haven't been flawless, but they've consistently created enough offense to control games. Buffalo should be able to turn this into a multi-score contest.
ATS pick: Bills -6.5
Jets vs Bears AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| Bears | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Chicago's Week 4 outlook remains uncertain entering Monday night's game against Philadelphia. Caleb Williams has already been ruled out for Week 3 with his hamstring injury, while New York pushed Detroit throughout Sunday's 31-24 loss. Getting more than a field goal gives the Jets value against an unsettled Bears offense.
ATS pick: Jets +3.5
Cowboys vs Texans AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| Texans | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Dallas came up short against Baltimore but still produced 31 points against a quality Ravens defense. Houston fell to 0-3 after scoring only 17 against Indianapolis and continues to struggle with offensive consistency. Until the Texans show more explosiveness, taking the points with Dallas is the preferred side.
ATS pick: Cowboys +2.5
Rams vs Eagles AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| Eagles | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
Los Angeles couldn't hold a second-half lead against Denver, but Matthew Stafford and the Rams continue to move the football effectively. Philadelphia still has Monday night's matchup with Chicago to play. At the current number, Los Angeles has enough offensive firepower to create separation rather than simply survive a close game.
ATS pick: Rams -3.5
Packers vs Buccaneers AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| Buccaneers | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
Green Bay is coming off an ugly 35-14 loss to Atlanta, but Tampa Bay's quarterback situation is a major concern. Baker Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand Sunday and is undergoing further testing. That makes a Packers bounce-back much easier to envision at a manageable spread.
ATS pick: Packers -3.5
Titans vs Ravens AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| Ravens | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Baltimore's defense gave up 31 points to Dallas, but Tennessee presents a dramatically easier offensive matchup. The Titans managed only seven points against the Giants and have struggled to sustain drives. Baltimore should control possession and create enough explosive plays to justify laying a large number at home.
ATS pick: Ravens -11.5
Jaguars vs Bengals AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| Bengals | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
Jacksonville responded to its Week 2 loss with an emphatic 35-6 victory over New England, while Cincinnati's unbeaten start ended against Pittsburgh. The Bengals remain dangerous offensively, but Jacksonville has enough balance to make this essentially a toss-up. Taking the points with the Jaguars provides the better ATS position.
ATS pick: Jaguars +2.5
Dolphins vs Vikings AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| Vikings | 7 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 30 |
Miami remains winless after scoring only 10 points against Kansas City and now faces another difficult road matchup. Minnesota improved to 3-0 with a victory over Tampa Bay and has been consistently strong defensively. Even with a double-digit spread, the Vikings have enough advantages to win comfortably.
ATS pick: Vikings -10.5
Chiefs vs Raiders AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 7 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| Raiders | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Las Vegas has been one of the early-season surprises, improving to 3-0 with a 35-27 victory in New Orleans. Kansas City represents another level of difficulty, however. The Chiefs have the defensive structure to limit explosive plays, while Patrick Mahomes gives them a clear advantage if this becomes a high-leverage fourth-quarter game.
ATS pick: Chiefs -4.5
Chargers vs Seahawks prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| Seahawks | 7 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 30 |
Seattle's unbeaten start ended in a 33-31 loss to Washington, but the offense remained productive with Sam Darnold back under center. Los Angeles fell to 0-3 after losing in Buffalo and has struggled to generate consistent offense. Seattle should be capable of pulling away at home.
ATS pick: Seahawks -7.5
Broncos vs 49ers AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 49ers | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
Denver's 30-26 comeback win over the Rams was its best performance of the season, while San Francisco needed 36 points to hold off Arizona. The 49ers remain talented but are dealing with considerable injury attrition. Denver has enough offensive upside to make the points appealing and could win outright.
ATS pick: Broncos +2.5
Lions vs Panthers AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 7 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 30 |
| Panthers | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Detroit hasn't been dominant every week, but the Lions continue to find ways to score and moved to 2-1 after beating the Jets. Carolina followed its blowout win over Atlanta by losing to Cleveland. Detroit's deeper offense should eventually wear down the Panthers and create separation in the second half.
ATS pick: Lions -3.5
Falcons vs Saints AI prediction
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Saints | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
Atlanta produced one of Week 3's biggest surprises with a 35-14 victory at Green Bay, while New Orleans allowed 35 points in its loss to Las Vegas. The Saints return home for a divisional matchup and still possess enough offensive upside to rebound, but Atlanta's improvement makes this a more competitive game.
ATS pick: Saints -2.5
More NFL picks for Week 4
For more analysis ahead of Week 4, check out SBR's NFL picks, the latest NFL odds, NFL MVP odds, and the complete 2026 NFL schedule.
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