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Gardner Minshew of the Indianapolis Colts calls a play ahead of our Week 18 NFL predictions for Texans vs. Colts
Gardner Minshew of the Indianapolis Colts against the Las Vegas Raiders at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

The Indianapolis Colts are in a must-win situation to reach the playoffs, and we're assessing their Week 18 matchup against the Houston Texans with our Gardner Minshew NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds at the best sports betting sites.

The Indianapolis Colts' backs are against the wall, and they need to win on Saturday night against the Houston Texans to make the playoffs. The winner of this game could also be crowned the AFC South champions, depending on the result of the Jacksonville Jaguars' game on Sunday.

Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew has been relatively successful since taking over for injured rookie signal-caller Anthony Richardson, and he now faces a weak Texans pass defense he could exploit Saturday night.

In addition to our NFL Week 18 predictions, Texans-Colts prediction, and Texans-Colts player props, here are our best Gardner Minshew NFL player prop predictions for the Texans vs. Colts Week 18 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Gardner Minshew NFL player prop predictions for Week 18

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Gardner Minshew player props

Gardner Minshew Over 235.5 passing yards (-114 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Minshew has been what we would expect of a backup quarterback thrust into a starting role. He's been inconsistent, but now Minshew gets an ideal matchup against a Texans defense allowing 240.4 passing yards per game (26th).

The signal-caller has recently run into the strong passing defenses of the Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders, but he's still cleared his passing prop in five of his 12 starts. Minshew faces a leaky Texans secondary on Saturday that allowed 168 passing yards to Tennessee at home, but 364 yards to Joe Flacco in Cleveland.

Look for him to come out slinging it early and find success on Saturday night. 

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Gardner Minshew Over 1.5 TD passes (+140 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The odds at FanDuel for this prop are just too good to pass up. This is a game with a 47.5-point total, and Indy is a +1.5 home underdog at many of our best sports betting apps. The points will need to come from somewhere. Houston has yielded just 1.1 scoring strikes per game, but the team has given up multiple touchdowns in two of its last five outings.

Minshew has cleared this passing TD prop just three times in 2023, but all three occasions came at Lucas Oil Stadium. Look for Minshew to air it out regularly against a poor Texans secondary and be successful enough to throw a pair of touchdown tosses.  

Gardner Minshew Over 0.5 interceptions (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

While I do expect Minshew to produce a better-than-average day for him, he'll also throw 30-40 times, and that volume will result in an interception or two on Saturday. He's thrown nine in 2023, and four interceptions over his last seven matchups.

The Texans average 2.8 sacks per game, and Minshew has been dumped 33 times in 2023. Houston has recorded 14 interceptions and 66 passes defensed, and it's highly likely the Texans' pressure forces Minshew into a mistake. 

Gardner Minshew player prop picks made Friday at 3:42 p.m. ET.

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