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NFL Christmas Day Parlay Picks, Predictions Week 16: 3 Picks for the Holiday Slate

Philip Wood

Last Updated: December 23, 2022 7:35 AM EST • 2 min 38 sec read.

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins throws against the Cleveland Browns, and we offer our NFL most passing yards analysis.
Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins throws against the Cleveland Browns. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images via AFP.

The NFL's Christmas Day tripleheader provides a great opportunity for parlay picks. Here are our NFL Christmas Day parlay picks based on the best odds.

With most of the NFL games being played on Saturday this week, Christmas Day features just three games. Of the three games, the first between the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins is the only game being played between two teams still able to make the postseason.

With quarterback injuries littering the late games featuring the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Arizona Cardinals, what bets offer the best parlay for the Christmas Day slate?

Here are our best Christmas Day NFL parlay picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Christmas Day Parlay Picks Week 16

Sbr Betting TicketParlay Three Picks

NFL Christmas Day Parlay Predictions

Dolphins -3.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Dolphins have lost three games in a row, and because of that, they are being undervalued this week against the 6-8 Green Bay Packers. The Dolphins' last three games were all played on the road, and they were against three of the hottest teams in the NFL. Miami still very nearly snuck away with a victory against the Buffalo Bills last week, and now will take on a team that is only alive in the playoff hunt because of weak competition in their last few games.

Oddsmakers are giving the Packers the hook because of results in the last few weeks, but this feels like a trap line. Look for the Dolphins to get back to winning against a team that is far inferior to them.

Broncos-Rams Under 36.5 (-110)⭐⭐⭐⭐

The two worst offenses in the NFL meet in the second game of the Christmas Day slate. The Rams are averaging just 16.4 points per game, while the Broncos are averaging a league-worst 15.6. This total is incredibly low, but rightfully so.

Russell Wilson will be back under center for the Broncos after missing their Week 15 matchup against the Cardinals. Yet, his presence does very little to improve the status of this Broncos’ offense. Meanwhile, the Broncos’ defense continues to be fantastic. They are allowing just 18.1 points per game, and they get a juicy matchup this week against Baker Mayfield.

This game is one of the few in the NFL this week where the weather won’t be a factor. Yet, no matter what the weather is like, there is no reason to trust these two teams to put up more than five touchdowns in a game.

Leonard Fournette Over 40.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The third game of the slate is the hardest one to predict. The Cardinals will have Trace McSorley under center again after his terrible performance against the Broncos one week ago. Yet, have the Bucs done anything to show that they should be favored by more than a touchdown?

Therefore, instead of playing the total or the spread, we’re going with a player prop. Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White have been splitting carries over the last few weeks. Because the Bucs have generally been playing from behind, neither one of them has put up very good numbers. 

Yet, the Cardinals have allowed more than 150 rushing yards in two of their last four games. The Bucs should be playing from ahead for most of this game, which will allow them to run the ball more. Though White and Fournette will split carries, Fournette has been doing more with his touches this season, averaging 6.9 yards per carry. With his number set lower than White’s, he is the correct play.

NFL Christmas Day parlay picks made 12/23/2022 at 9:42 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.