Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction: Week 6 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
It’s a matchup between a winless Los Angeles Chargers team, which is amid the league’s longest active losing streak (eight games), and an undefeated Kansas City Chiefs squad. But the best bet for my Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction backs the Under in what should be a defensive struggle, even if the home favorites should cover.
Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for Sunday at 4:25 p.m.ET (CBS), and the Chiefs are 7.5-point betting favorites.
Chargers vs. Chiefs picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 6 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| Chiefs -7.5 (-112 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.89 units |
| Under 41.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.9 units
Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction & best bet
Under 41.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert’s QBR splits are troubling, as he owns the league’s worst Total QBR (27), QBR when not pressured (24), QBR in the pocket (20), and fourth-quarter QBR (5).
Herbert took a season-high five sacks last week, and his 121 passing yards were his third-fewest in a game in his career. He has thrown for fewer than 230 yards in every game (and fewer than 200 yards three times), while logging a troubling 5-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Things should not get better against a well-rested Chiefs defense off a bye that allows one of the league’s lowest air yards per attempt average (6.4). Los Angeles hasn’t generated a downfield passing attack (NFL-low 4.2 average depth of target) largely because its offensive line ranks 30th in pass-block win rate and has allowed the second-most sacks.
📡 SBR Edge: Herbert in poor company
Justin Herbert is one of four quarterbacks to start a season 0-5 with a QBR below 30, a statistic first tracked in 2006.
Chiefs injuries could slow their offense down
Entering the weekend two of Kansas City’s biggest perimeter threats, Rashee Rice (hamstring) and Tyquan Thornton (ankle) were questionable with injuries. If they can't play, unproven rookie wide receiver Cyrus Allen and second-year wideout Jalen Royals would move up the depth chart.
Kansas City still has a path to offense, but it would be a methodical one, pounding Kenneth Walker III who leads the NFL with 155.3 scrimmage yards per game, 134.3 rush yards per game, and 6.2 yards per carry. And even though the Chiefs rank fifth in offensive EPA and points per drive, there is no need to keep the foot on the gas offensively if Los Angeles isn’t providing scoreboard pressure.
Score prediction: Chiefs 24, Chargers 14
Chargers vs. Chiefs odds
Chargers vs. Chiefs opening odds
- Moneyline: Chargers +290 | Chiefs -375
- Spread: Chargers +7.5 (-108) | Chiefs -7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-108) | Under 45.5 (-110)
How to watch Chargers vs. Chiefs: Week 6
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 18
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Paramount+
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
