Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 18: Can Tampa Bay Cover as an Underdog?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will square off against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday without any stakes on the line. Read on for our best Buccaneers vs. Falcons pick.

The Buccaneers (8-8) have clinched the NFC South regardless of how Sunday’s game in Atlanta plays out, so the natural question surrounding the game is whether we will see much of the Tampa Bay starters.

Todd Bowles hasn’t blinked, indicating his team will continue to keep the pedal down. The betting market isn’t buying it, as the line has moved sharply in favor of the Falcons (6-10) in recent days. Does the line movement create value on the underdog division champs?

Here is our best Buccaneers vs. Falcons NFL pick for Week 18 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Game Info

Date: Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Weather: Dome

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds Analysis

The line opened as a pick ’em but has moved heavily in favor of Atlanta. We’re seeing numbers between Falcons -4 and -4.5 across our affiliated sportsbooks. But 90% of the handle has been wagered on the Bucs.

The total opened at 40 and has risen to 40.5 at the majority of our recommended sportsbooks. At the time of this writing, 70% of the money wagered on the total has been on the Under.

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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Pick

Bucs +4.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Todd Bowles has indicated that the Bucs don’t plan to take their foot off the gas, implying that Week 18 can provide value to a team tuning up for a playoff game the following week. He pushed back on the idea that Tampa would rest its regulars entirely. Though he left the door open for adjustments to the game plan as the week evolves, I tend to believe that Tom Brady and Co. will get some run in the first half.

Even if prudent decision-making eventually wins out for Bowles — as the line movement expects — Blaine Gabbert is an experienced backup capable of running the Tampa Bay offense competitively against a Falcons’ unit that ranks 30th in the NFL in defensive DVOA via Football Outsiders.

Regardless of the decisions on the Tampa side, the reality is that the Falcons have limitations on both sides of the ball that make it difficult for them to cover a number like this one. Atlanta is 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season. Only one of its six wins has come by a margin that would cover this 4.5-point spread.

The Falcons rank 19th in the league in scoring average at 20.9 points per game. Behind a slow-developing Desmond Ridder, it’s difficult to envision Atlanta exceeding that number against Tampa’s eighth-ranked scoring defense. Regardless of Tampa’s personnel decisions, this feels like a game that comes down to a field goal, which means value on the Bucs in a unique situation. 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Best Odds

FanDuel (-115)

DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, and PointsBet offer the Bucs at +4 with standard -110 odds. Those odds are more favorable than the -115 odds offered at FanDuel, but FanDuel is the only spot to list the Bucs at +4.5.

The Falcons have played 10 games within a four-point margin this season. Given the number of close games in which Atlanta has been involved, we prefer the value of the hook at FanDuel despite the increased juice on the wager.

Buccaneers-Falcons pick made 1/6/2023 at 4:15 p.m. ET.

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