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Bills vs. Dolphins Picks, Predictions NFL Week 3: Points Aplenty in AFC East Showdown

Connor Cooper

Last Updated: September 22, 2022 1:30 PM EDT • 2 min 51 sec read.

Stefon Diggs #14 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after scoring his third touchdown of the night against the Tennessee Titans during the third quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium on September 19, 2022 in Orchard Park, New York.
Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after scoring his third touchdown of the night against the Tennessee Titans during the third quarter of the game at Highmark Stadium on September 19, 2022 in Orchard Park, New York. Photo by Joshua Bessex/Getty Images via AFP.

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this key AFC East clash as we offer up our top picks between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins..

First place in the division is on the line this Sunday when the explosive Buffalo Bills (2-0) visit the Miami Dolphins (2-0). Buffalo has dominated the rivalry over the past five seasons, winning seven straight meetings and nine of the last 10, but Miami is riding high after overcoming a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit last week in Baltimore.

With that in mind, we present our Bills-Dolphins picks and predictions for NFL Week 3 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs Dolphins Game Info

Date: Sunday, Sept. 25, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Weather: 84 degrees, 28% chance of precipitation, 10 mph winds

Bills vs Dolphins Odds Analysis

Buffalo has attracted more than 80% of the handle and the ticket count in early betting action, causing this line to drift up a point from the opener of Bills -4.5. The Over has also been a popular bet, drawing 82% of wagers and sending the total soaring from 50 to 54 before it drifted back to 52 on Wednesday.

Bills vs Dolphins Picks

  • Spread: Bills -5.5 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★
  • Over/Under: Over 52 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★★★
  • Prop: Jaylen Waddle to score a touchdown (+130 via FanDuel) ★★★

Bills vs Dolphins ATS Pick

Bills -5.5 (-110) ★★★

It’s hard to imagine Buffalo still being undervalued in the betting marketplace, but that might actually be the case. The Bills aren’t just covering point spreads in their victories, they’re often obliterating them. Each of Buffalo’s last 20 wins have come by at least 10 points, so if you’re liking the Bills to triumph this week in Miami, you shouldn’t be too nervous about laying less than a touchdown.

Three of those 20 comfortable victories have come over Miami by an average of nearly 27 points per game, part of Buffalo’s franchise-record seven-game winning streak versus the Fish. Yes, the Bills will have one fewer day of rest than Miami, after having to play on Monday night, but some of that disadvantage might be negated by the fact that Buffalo was able to pull many of its starters before the fourth quarter of its blowout of the Tennessee Titans.

Miami’s fourth-quarter comeback dominated last week’s headlines, but is it really a good sign that the Dolphins were down 21 points in the fourth quarter? Prior to their furious rally versus Baltimore, the Dolphins had scored just 34 points in their first seven quarters of the season, hardly looking like an elite offense. I need to see more than one good 15-minute stretch of football to be convinced that the Fish are capable of keeping up with the powerful Bills.

Bills vs. Dolphins O/U Pick

Over 52 (-110) ★★★★★

Thirty points seems to have become the floor for this Buffalo offense, which has cracked the 30-point plateau in four straight and hasn’t been held under 27 in any of its last nine games. If the Bills manage that again this week, we just need the Dolphins to get into the low 20s to cash this Over, and I do think they’ll get there; even against a Bills defense that has allowed the second-fewest points in the league through two weeks.

Running the ball to keep it away from the Bills probably won’t work for the Fish, who are 28th in the NFL in yards gained on the ground. But Miami’s speedy receiver combo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be able to bust a few coverages against a Bills secondary that is banged up and will likely have to play a pair of rookie cornerbacks.

Bills vs. Dolphins Prop Pick

Waddle anytime touchdown (+130) ★★★

Going back to last season, Waddle has caught a touchdown pass in three of his last four games,  and five of his last seven. He’s reached the endzone in six of his last eight, if you include a rushing TD in Week 11 last year.

Getting plus money on this prop looks like great value against Buffalo’s injury-depleted secondary, especially in a game where the Dolphins will likely be throwing the ball a lot in the second half.

Where to Bet on Bills vs. Dolphins Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Bills-Dolphins picks made 9/21/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET

Written By:
Connor Cooper
Connor Cooper is a contributing writer for Sportsbook Review, specializing in the National Football League and college football, as well as the National Hockey League and National Basketball Association. A diehard Maple Leafs and Blue Jays fan growing up in Toronto, Connor quickly shed all his allegiances once he realized that making money betting on sports was much more fun than cheering for his favorite team. He still holds a soft spot for the Leafs, Jays, Toronto Raptors, Denver Broncos, and Florida Gators, but Connor won’t hesitate to bet on — or against — anybody if that’s where the value lies. In addition to analyzing recent and season-long statistics, Connor always looks to account for the human element when breaking down games, weighing situational and motivational factors into his handicapping process.