NFL Best Bets Week 6: Matchups, Odds, Picks, Predictions
There has been much parity in the NFL thus far, as none of the eight division races are separated by more than a game through five weeks. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our NFL best bets for Week 6.
A couple of betting lines jump out from the NFL's Week 6 slate. The Pittsburgh Steelers are on track to being the second-biggest home underdogs they have been in the last 40 years, while Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog for the first time in his NFL career.
Check out all of our top NFL Week 6 picks.
Here are our best bets for Week 6’s NFL slate (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Week 6 NFL Schedule and Odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- New York Jets (+275) vs. Green Bay Packers (-325)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-390) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+320)
- San Francisco 49ers (-230) vs. Atlanta Falcons (+195)
- Baltimore Ravens (-245) vs. New York Giants (+205)
- Minnesota Vikings (-165) vs. Miami Dolphins (+140)
- Cincinnati Bengals (-130) vs. New Orleans Saints (+110)
- New England Patriots (+120) vs. Cleveland Browns (-140)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+115) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-135)
- Carolina Panthers (+350) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-435)
- Arizona Cardinals (-135) vs. Seattle Seahawks (+115)
- Buffalo Bills (-135) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (+115)
- Dallas Cowboys (+220) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-260)
- Denver Broncos (+195) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-230)
Week 6 NFL Best Bets
- Moneyline: 49ers (-235 via FanDuel) vs. Falcons
- Spread: Jets +7.5 (-115 via Caesars) vs. Packers
- Total: Cardinals-Seahawks Over 50.5 (-106 via FanDuel)
- Upset: Chiefs (+124 via FanDuel) vs. Bills
- Player prop: Devin Singletary anytime touchdown scorer (+120 via DraftKings)
Sunday's Top NFL Picks
Moneyline: 49ers (-235) ★★★★★
The Atlanta Falcons are the only team left in the league that's undefeated against the spread. They are arguably better than their 2-3 straight-up record, considering those three losses were by a total of 11 points. However, Atlanta struggled with an elite Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense last week, punting five times and missing a field goal within its first six possessions. Things will not get easier against a San Francisco 49ers defense that has held four consecutive opponents to 15 or fewer points.
Atlanta's offense is heavily predicated on running the football. Still, San Francisco is the league's best run defense (71.4 rushing yards allowed per game), and it combines that with a ferocious pass rush that entered last week with the best sack and second-best pressure percentages in the NFL. Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off his first game with multiple passing touchdowns, and he will do enough offensively while the 49ers rely on a tough defense to grind out another win.
Spread: Jets +7.5 (-115) ★★★★
The New York Jets are off to their best start since 2017 at 3-2. They are coming off their highest point output (40) in a game since 2018, primarily because they ran the ball effectively with five-plus rushing touchdowns in a game for the first time since 1993. As long as New York is getting more than a touchdown, we like it to play tough against a Green Bay Packers offense that has yet to find its footing.
Against the New York Giants last week, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers failed to complete any of his six deep passes (20-plus air yards), his most such incompletions since 2016. Overall, Rodgers is 2-for-15 with an interception on passes of 25-plus air yards this season. Rodgers went 7-for-15 for 75 yards in the second half against the Giants as the Packers' offense was shut out, and he finished his fourth game with a QBR below 20 in the second half this season.
Meanwhile, New York ranks in the top five in points (58), point differential (plus-38), yards per play (6.1), and touchdowns (eight) in the fourth quarter this season. We're looking for the Jets to once again finish strong this week.
Total: Cardinals-Seahawks Over 50.5 (-106) ★★★★
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is playing the best football of his career. He leads the NFL in passer rating (113.2) and is coming off his first game with three-plus touchdown passes since 2014 against an excellent New Orleans Saints defense. Meanwhile, Seattle's defense is allowing the most total yards per game (430.0) and the second-most points per game (30.8).
The Seahawks have allowed 27 or more points in four consecutive games and at least 145 rushing yards in four straight contests. This game against the Arizona Cardinals has all the makings of a shootout.
Upset: Chiefs (+124) ★★★
The Kansas City Chiefs have beaten the Buffalo Bills in three of the last four meetings dating back to 2020, including their previous two playoff meetings at Arrowhead Stadium. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is still second in the league with a 79 QBR despite wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s offseason departure. In addition, he has an NFL-best 84 QBR and 41% first-down percentage against zone coverage. That is glaring since Buffalo uses zone defense at the second-highest rate (72%) in the league.
Check out our Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes prop picks.
Mahomes is 7-0-1 ATS (85.4% return on investment as an underdog and led his team to six outright wins in those eight games. Kansas City should not be a home underdog this week.
Player prop: Singletary anytime touchdown scorer (+120) ★★★
Bills running back Devin Singletary is the focal point of the team's ground game. When Buffalo's games have been within a touchdown, he has played 76% of the snaps, compared to 46% when the Bills lead by eight or more points. This game against Kansas City should be competitive throughout and has the highest point total (54) of any game on the Week 6 slate.
In addition, Bills head coach Sean McDermott will likely lean on the running game more to keep the explosive Chiefs offense off the field. In a game that should feature plenty of touchdowns, bank on Singletary to find the end zone.
Where to Bet on the NFL
NFL Week 6 best bets made on 10/14/22 at 5:47 a.m.
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