Buccaneers vs. Steelers Picks, Predictions NFL Week 6: Will Pittsburgh Surprise as Unpopular Underdogs?
There is a unique dynamic between the two quarterbacks in this battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Pittsburgh Steelers. Tom Brady puts his 246 wins (most all-time) on the line against rookie Kenny Pickett, who is looking for his first career victory. Read on for our Buccaneers-Steelers picks.
Tampa Bay is the only NFC South team above .500 through three games. After beating the Atlanta Falcons last week, the Buccaneers improved to 2-0 against NFC South rivals for the first time since 2016, and Brady improved his career record to 11-0 against Atlanta.
Pittsburgh is coming off its worst loss (35 points) since 1989. The Steelers' four-game losing streak is its second-longest under head coach Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh has a 0.6% chance of making the playoffs, the lowest of any team in the league, according to ESPN FPI.
Here are our Buccaneers-Steelers NFL picks for Week 6 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Buccaneers vs. Steelers Game Info
Date: Sunday, Oct. 16, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Weather: 58 degrees, 24% chance of precipitation, 8-mph W wind
Buccaneers vs. Steelers Odds
Buccaneers vs. Steelers Odds Analysis
Tampa Bay ticked up as high as 9-point favorites this week, but have since landed in the -8 to -8.5 range. Both sharps and the public have backed the favorites, as they have attracted 90% of tickets and 94% of the cash.
The Over/Under ranges from 43.5 to 44.5. There has been good two-way action on the total, with the Over attracting 61% of the bets and 54% of the handle.
Buccaneers vs. Steelers Picks
Buccaneers vs. Steelers ATS Pick
Steelers +8.5 (-110) ★★★★
The Buccaneers have won six consecutive road games, while the Steelers are coming off getting embarrassed by the Buffalo Bills and have failed to cover the spread in any of their last four games. Yet, with the utmost contrarian nature, we expect Pittsburgh to be competitive.
At one point this week, Pittsburgh was bet up to +9, which would make it the biggest home underdog the team has been in the past 40 years. Over the past 20 seasons, the Steelers have gone 15-9 straight up and 17-4-3 ATS as home dogs.
Pickett can build off the fact that he threw for more than 300 yards against the Bills (albeit after 52 attempts). We expect him to play much better in his first home start after rushing for two touchdowns in his first home experience two weeks ago.
Buccaneers vs. Steelers O/U Pick
Under 44.5 (-110) ★
If Pittsburgh is to keep this game close, it likely will not come as part of a shootout. The Buccaneers rank 13th in offensive DVOA and third in defensive DVOA, while the Steelers rank 24th and 16th in the same two categories. Pittsburgh scored 13.5 points per game during its four-game losing streak, as its offensive line has struggled to protect Pickett and create any running lanes for its running backs.
It would have seemed unfathomable entering the season that a Brady-led offense would be 21st in yards per game through the first five weeks. However, the Buccaneers have not hit their stride because of injuries to skill position players and a revamped offensive line. Thus, a Steelers defense with just three total sacks during their four-game losing streak (seven in Week 1) should cause some havoc this week.
Buccaneers vs. Steelers Prop Pick
Harris Under 44.5 rushing yards (-110) ★★★
Steelers running back Najee Harris saw his snap share dip from 80% to 65% this past week. A bad offensive line in front of him has led to him averaging 0.5 yards before contact, one of the worst rates among running backs with 25-plus carries.
He has not even been effective in the passing game, as his target share dropped from 14% with Ben Roethlisberger to 8.5% with Mitch Trubisky and Pickett.
Harris has been held Under this projected total twice through five games and is in for another rough performance this week against one of the league’s top run defenses.
Where to Bet on Buccaneers vs. Steelers Picks
Buccaneers-Steelers picks made 10/13/2022 at 6:16 a.m. ET
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