49ers vs. Falcons Picks, Predictions NFL Week 6: Garoppolo & Co. to Stay Hot in Atlanta
The San Francisco 49ers backed up their statement win against the Los Angeles Rams with a dominant victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 5. The Atlanta Falcons are no pushovers, though. Check out our 49ers-Falcons picks.
Kyle Shanahan returns to Atlanta, where he had success as the Falcons’ offensive coordinator, guiding them to the Super Bowl and Matt Ryan to the MVP award in 2016.
Following a sluggish start to the season, San Francisco heads into the Mercedes-Benz Stadium off the back of two wins. Their defense has given up the fewest points and fewest yards in the league, while the Falcons are missing key personnel on offense.
Here are our best picks and predictions for the Week 6 matchup between the 49ers and Falcons (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
49ers vs. Falcons Game Info
Date: Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Weather: Indoors
49ers vs. Falcons Odds
49ers vs. Falcons Odds Analysis
The 49ers opened as 6.5-point favorites but have dropped to -5.5 at most sportsbooks despite the majority of money and tickets coming in on San Francisco. The 49ers are getting 70% of the cash and 75% of the tickets.
The total sits at 45.5, with the Over getting 74% of the cash and 57% of the tickets.
49ers vs. Falcons Picks
- Spread: Falcons +5.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
- Over/Under: Under 44.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
- Prop bet: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110 via DraftKings)
49ers vs. Falcons ATS Pick
Falcons +5.5 (-107) ★★★★
The Falcons are 5-0 against the spread this year. The 49ers are banged up, with key players such as Nick Bosa, Jimmie Ward, Emmanuel Moseley, and kicker Robbie Gould exiting the game last week. Additionally, San Fran's defensive line is missing top talent at the interior, with Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw injured.
Atlanta made a strong push late in its game last week against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that ranks top five in most departments. The Falcons were without star tight end Kyle Pitts but still managed to cover the spread. Atlanta has covered against big teams already this season and will be a feisty group at home against the 49ers.
49ers vs. Falcons O/U Pick
Under 44.5 (-110) ★★★★
Despite their injuries, the 49ers are solid on defense. They combined for six sacks last week, and that was without Armstead and Kinlaw, and Bosa for most of the second half.
Cordarrelle Patterson is still on IR for the Falcons, which is a big blow for their offense. Meanwhile, Pitts returned to practice this week as he continues to deal with a hamstring issue.
San Francisco’s defense has allowed the fewest points, fewest rushing yards, and fewest receiving yards in the league. It’ll be hard for Atlanta to remain on the field without all of its top offensive players active and/or fully healthy, and Kyle Shanahan will look to run off as much time as possible when his offense is driving.
Don’t expect a lot of points in this contest.
49ers vs. Falcons Prop Pick
Garoppolo Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110) ★★★
Jimmy Garoppolo’s numbers have improved in each game that he’s played. Last week against the Carolina Panthers was the first game this season in which he’s thrown multiple touchdowns. One of those scores was to the former Falcons running back Tevin Coleman.
Among active running backs with at least 100 catches, Coleman has the highest TD-per-reception ratio (9.92 percent) in the NFL. He becomes another weapon for Garoppolo against the NFL’s 29th-ranked pass defense, which is giving up 278.2 yards per game through the air.
The 49ers have based themselves in West Virginia all week, so there will be no time adjustment in the Falcons’ favor. Jimmy and this offense will go up another gear in this one.
Where to Bet on 49ers-Falcons Picks
49ers-Falcons picks made 10/13/2022 at 7:01 a.m. ET
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