Bengals vs. Steelers NFL Week 3 Picks and Predictions

The projections say the Pittsburgh Steelers are the right NFL pick for Sunday – so why are the sharps on the Cincinnati Bengals?

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, September 26, 2021 - 1:00 PM ET at Heinz Field

The underdogs did it again. After a very healthy 9-7 SU and 12-4 ATS start to the 2021 regular season, the dogs kept barking in Week 2, going 5-11 SU and 9-7 ATS in another profitable run for both the online sportsbooks and the sharps. Maybe we should just auto-bet all the puppies from now on – puppies like the Cincinnati Bengals, who are four-point road dogs on (visit our Sportsbook Review) NFL odds board heading into Sunday’s Rust Belt matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We’re not the only ones thinking this. The consensus reports at press time have 80 percent of early bettors on Cincinnati, and as the hymnbook says, early money is sharp money. So why do the projections we’re looking at have the Steelers beating the spread in this matchup by five points or more? This isn’t usually how things work.

https://youtu.be/dpdS3i4Sw0k

Ah! My Groin!

Aside from those projections (via FiveThirtyEight and Jeff Sagarin), the numbers support putting Cincinnati in our Week 3 NFL picks. Each team is 1-1 SU and ATS after two games. The Bengals have the better point differential at exactly zero, two points ahead of Pittsburgh; the Steelers, having played the tougher schedule of the two, check in at No. 15 overall on the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, six spots ahead of the rebuilding Bengals.

All told, this is a more even matchup on paper than the betting public might see it – and a lovely spot to get the Bengals at more than a field goal on the road. At least that’s the old-school way of looking at it. Plus, the Steelers' defense will be without one of their top players on Sunday: DT Tyson Alualu (ankle) went on injured reserve last week. And linebacker T.J. Watt, the league’s reigning sack king, is iffy after pulling his groin. What’s not to love about Cincinnati?

Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals threw a couple of TD's against the Vikings on September 12, 2021. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

Tinker Taylor

I can think of a few things. The biggest issue right now is QB Joe Burrow, who finds himself fifth from the bottom in passing DVOA among qualifying starters. Burrow and head coach Zac Taylor have yet to prove they can get the job done, although this relationship is still in the early stages. Then again, Pittsburgh’s defense is hurting, and the Bengals do have the superior special teams in this matchup by a fair margin, which counts double when you’re playing in the swirling vortex that is Heinz Field.

Anyway, without the projections to back us up, we might want to give that 43.5-point total at (visit our Sportsbook Review) a look instead. The Over is getting a slight lean here at 57-percent consensus; not having Alualu (and perhaps Watt) to deal with should help Burrow and the Bengals do their part. Sunday’s weather forecast looks pretty safe for our purposes, too – no rain or snow or unseasonable temperatures to worry about. Seems worth a small bet, although we wouldn’t blame you if you took the Bengals ATS instead. It’s all good.

NFL Pick:

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.