NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 13
Having covered four straight spreads to dominate our power rankings, will the Detroit Lions make the top 10 once again this week? Our NFL power rankings look at our favorite point spreads for Week 13.
The Detroit Lions have been near the top of our power rankings for several weeks and have delivered every time, but that well could be drying up and we have a new team to back before the market catches up. Here's a hint: Its quarterback no longer hits on your mom's friends and is capable of completing passes.
The following are the power rankings of my favorite point spread picks for Week 13 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Monday, Nov. 28 at 11 a.m. ET).
NFL ATS Picks Power Rankings for Week 13
10. Browns -7 (-107 via PointsBet) at Texans
Deshaun Watson is back from suspension and will start his first game for the Cleveland Browns against the Houston Texans. You have no idea how badly I wanted my numbers to suggest that I should back the Texans, but it turned out quite the opposite, with the Browns trading as 7-point favorites. It's difficult to handicap this game since we haven't seen Watson play since 2020, and Jacoby Brissett has been playing very well in his absence. Honestly, it's questionable whether a rusty Watson is an improvement over Brissett.
We're likely to see a great deal of Texans support from the public, as they'll want to root for Watson's old team to win. The Browns have a slight edge at this number, but if you're able to secure a Browns -6.5, the edge increases significantly.
9. Buccaneers -3.5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Saints
There's a negative perception of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the public, especially after they lost in overtime to the Browns in Week 12 and now have a 5-6 record for the season. I believe that you should take advantage of this poor public perception of the Buccaneers, particularly against an awful New Orleans Saints team. In Week 12, the Saints offense started drives inside the San Francisco 49ers' 30-yard line three times without scoring a single point.
In my opinion, the Buccaneers should be favored by five points, and even though the difference in the number is small, the opportunity to price shop makes backing the Buccaneers more appealing. At sportsbooks such as FanDuel, the Buccaneers are trading as 4-point favorites, but at PointsBet, their 14-cent lines allow you to avoid this key number and buy them at -107.
8. Bengals +2.5 (-105 via FanDuel) vs. Chiefs
Don't look now, but the Cincinnati Bengals are rapidly climbing the power ratings. Early in the season, there was concern that the Bengals might be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover and might miss the playoffs altogether.
In my opinion, this matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bengals is a pick'em, and with the news that Ja'Marr Chase will play this week, the line is likely to move in favor of the Bengals. There has already been some movement in this direction, with some sportsbooks making the Chiefs a 2-point favorite. As for finding the Bengals at +3, I believe you're out of luck and will have to settle for Bengals +2.5 before you lose that number as well.
7. Patriots +5 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Bills
Although the New England Patriots lost to the Minnesota Vikings on Thanksgiving, the offense looked significantly improved, and Mac Jones looked much like he did last season. It's never an easy task for the Buffalo Bills to play at Gillette Stadium, and they'll be without one of their best defenders in Von Miller.
While the Bills are undoubtedly the favorites when these division rivals meet in Week 13, I believe the line should be closer to Bills -3.5 rather than Bills -5.
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6. Lions -1 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Jaguars
We've included the Lions in our power rankings for the last four weeks, and they've cashed the ticket in all four games. Similarly to what we saw earlier this season with the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks, the value is starting to disappear on the Lions side of the spread as the market catches up. I don't believe we would have been able to back the Lions in Week 13 if the Jacksonville Jaguars had not won a dramatic comeback victory against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12.
I make the Lions a 3-point favorite over the Jaguars, so I'm thrilled that we're able to buy the spread below that key number. Shop around for this line; I expect this to move to a pick'em early and then drastically toward the Lions by the end of the week.
5. Giants +2 (-107 via PointsBet) vs. Commanders
As I haven't had too many weeks this season where my numbers have favored backing the New York Giants in comparison to where they are trading in the market, this spread caught my attention. Though the Washington Commanders have rallied around Taylor Heinicke, he's still a below-average NFL quarterback and not much of an upgrade over Carson Wentz.
In my opinion, the Giants should be the 1.5-point favorite here, not the Commanders. The only sportsbook offering Giants +2 is PointsBet, as all the other sportsbooks are trading this at Giants +1.5. PointsBet did actually get to Giants +2.5 briefly before it was immediately lowered.
4. Cowboys -9 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Colts
Seeing value on the Dallas Cowboys side of the spread seems odd, but let's remember the market loves the Indianapolis Colts with Jeff Saturday as their head coach, and even though the Cowboys won on Thanksgiving, they didn't cover.
I make the Cowboys 12-point favorites over the Colts in Week 13, so this spread immediately catches my eye since it's trading below the key number of 10 points. Considering most sportsbooks are trading this line at Cowboys -9.5, only DraftKings offers the Cowboys at -9, I don't expect this number to last for long. My personal opinion is that this line is destined for Cowboys -10 or higher and that'll suck all the value out of this wager, so I wouldn't hesitate to place this wager.
3. Raiders +2.5 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Chargers
It's rare to find value on the Las Vegas Raiders' side of the spread, just like the Giants who made the power rankings. I've faded the Raiders a lot this season because they've been overvalued relative to my numbers. While Chargers coach Brandon Staley may have squeaked out a victory on Sunday with a two-point conversion, it won't change my view of this line. The wrong team is favored here based on my numbers, and by a large margin.
I make the Raiders a 2.5-point favorite over the Chargers at home, which is by far the largest gap between my numbers and the market in Week 13. There's an urgency to back the Raiders at +2.5 via DraftKings, since the line has already adjusted to Raiders +1.5 at sportsbooks such as FanDuel, and I fully expect it to move further in their favor.
Since there's such a wide margin between my spread and where the market has it trading, why are the Raiders not ranked first? I'm always hesitant when I see such a large gap in the numbers, because it could mean I'm missing something; it doesn't simply mean to pound the Raiders and it's a guaranteed victory.
2. Dolphins +3.5 (-110 via Caesars) at 49ers
It'll be an offensive chess match between Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan in this matchup between the Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers. For those of you who don't know, McDaniel had been an assistant to Shanahan for many years, and Shanahan had brought him along with him wherever he coached. It's always my preference to give the edge to the former assistant in these situations because McDaniel knows a great deal more about Shanahan's game plan than Shanahan does about McDaniel.
In addition, the numbers support this position, as I have the Niners as a 2-point favorite over the Dolphins at home. The difference between 3.5 points and 2 points may seem insignificant, but when it comes to football spreads, they are anything but. You're moving through two key numbers of 3.5 and 3, and in a low spread, each point is worth more than say, a 10-point favorite I make 11.5 points.
1. Jets +3 (-107 via PointsBet) at Vikings
It's all aboard the Mike White bandwagon, as the New York Jets quarterback had the highest passer rating of any quarterback in Week 12 following his replacement of Zach Wilson. Having defeated the Patriots on Thanksgiving, the Vikings improved their record to 9-2 on the season, and they now have a positive point differential of +5.
As for the large difference between where I make the spread and where the market has it trading for in the Raiders game, there's no such hesitation with the Jets game. I have rated the Jets slightly higher than the market and the Vikings below where the market values them throughout the season. For Week 13, I think that the Jets should be a 1.5-point favorite over the Vikings. With the ability to buy the Jets catching the key number of three points, this is easily my favorite spread of the week.
As of right now, PointsBet offers the best price on this line. They're trading the Jets +3 for -107, while FanDuel (-114) and DraftKings (-115) have the Jets side juiced much higher than PointsBet.
Where to Bet on the NFL
NFL against-the-spread picks made 11/28/2022 at 11 a.m. ET.
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